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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/29/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Nick
9:07
Who is the biggest threat to the Mariners in the second AL WC spot. Is it really the A's?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Basically has to be the A's
They're seven back. The next-closest team is the Angels, at ten back, and they've been completely decimated by injuries
Rays are 11 back. Blue Jays, 13. Twins, 13.5. It's the A's or it's nobody
9:08
So maybe the proper response is that the greatest threat is the Mariners themselves. With a critical injury or two, it could all come apart, but their playoff odds are north of 80% for a reason
stever20
9:09
how worried should Dodgers be about Matt Kemp: wRC+ by month
April 146
May 155
June 109

He's batting .224 in June. With last 2 weeks batting only .139 with a 68 wRC+. With making in those 2 weeks almost as much soft contact as hard contact.
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
We've seen this pattern from him before. Just last season! When Kemp is healthy and at peak motivation, he's useful. When the aches and pains start to pile up, he loses his value pretty fast. I'm not saying that's definitely what's going on here, but the Dodgers should just be thankful for the value he already provided. Moving forward, Kemp should not be counted on for very much
Pio
9:10
Reports are that Hand's trade value is still hot even though he's been half the player he was last year. Can players really coast on reputation like that with how smart front offices have gotten?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
Hand's velocity is fine, his strikeouts are fine, and his walks are fine. Brad Hand hasn't changed. So, Brad Hand is incredibly valuable
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
9:11
Enjoyed seeing Colin Poche get some more recognition for going absolutely beast mode on MiLB. Couple things:
- The Rays just happened to feature him in last night's broadcast's prospect report. What a coincidence!
- Although he was a PTBNL in the Souza deal, it was reported at the time of the deal that the PTBNLs in the trade were no mere throw-ins. Since the guy is a lock to get a chance in the bigs, that sounds about right.
- Poche's player page here does not go in chronological order. It goes Rays (AA) - Diamondbacks (AA) - Rays (AAA).
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
Poche is such an obvious Rays kind of player, as a PTBNL. If he were a starter, or if he had more visibly impressive stuff, he wouldn't have been on the table. The Rays figure what matters most are the high-level performance measures. Poche has been very good, even if his scouting reports are modest. Good grab
Von Hayes
9:13
if Brad Hand is traded do you think it is more likely he will be a setup man than a closer? Which contenders need a closer the most?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
I used to think the Angels would be the perfect fit for Hand *and* Ross, but now they've drifted too far out of it
9:14
Mariners can't afford Hand, with their farm
I could see the Indians getting involved, and I could see the Cubs getting involved. Don't think Hand would remain a closer under those circumstances, although he'd still pick up the odd save here and there
9:15
The Cardinals would also make sense, but it doesn't seem like their kind of move
Ichiro
9:16
Who do you get the better feeling about long term...Brinson or Margot? Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
Brinson has a higher chance of being a total bust, but I'm not super high on Margot's potential, so I think Brinson covers him in both directions
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
9:18
Did someone in the NY Media suggest that Blake Snell was a realistic target for the Yanks? The number of NYY-TBR trade proposals for him I have seen is staggering given what the Rays would rightfully demand for someone with his talent and control. It is doubly weird when Chris Archer and Nate Eovaldi both exist and are on the block.
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
Here's what's going on: The Yankees are in the market for a starting pitcher, New York media people see the Rays pretty often, and there exists a fundamental misunderstanding of exactly what it is the Rays are trying to accomplish. People still think they're trying to tear it down, and thus the rumor is created
9:20
The Rays know what they are, and what they are is a team that is not about to trade Blake Snell to a division rival
Nick
9:20
what is a realistic timetable for expansion? Is it really going to be Portland and Montreal if/when it does happen?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
Probably in the 5-10 year window, and, possibly but not definitely. Those are certainly two of the most prominent candidates. Still have to settle Oakland and Tampa Bay first. That's the league's priority
Mike
9:21
What do you think about a Lindor for Bogaerts and Knebel trade?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
Those players are all on different teams
Desperate Mets Fan
9:22
If his current line is to be believed l, Brandon Nimmo is a star. Is xStats are a bit wary. Does he have the upside to be a star for us?
Jeff Sullivan
9:23
Still have to see more from Nimmo before we talk about him being a star -- his wOBA is up 58 points, but his xwOBA is up just 16. His strikeout rate is hovering perilously close to 30%
9:24
Nimmo's potential is very high, because he has a great eye and because his bat control is growing into real power. But he's not all the way there yet. Even with the 141 wRC+, it hasn't been the most wonderful June
9:25
7% walks and 36% strikeouts this month
Babe Lincoln
9:25
Who is the best prospect the Mets could hope to get for deGrom?
Jeff Sullivan
9:26
Keston Hiura
If deGrom actually does get moved, the Brewers look like the immediate favorites. Hiura and Burnes get you almost all the way there
Wade LeBlanc's pitch tunnel
9:27
Apparently Mariners and Rangers have discussed Cole Hamels. 1. Does he even make the Mariners better? 2. What would you give up to get him?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
He would definitely make the Mariners better, assuming he hasn't actually become one of the most homer-prone pitchers in either league
9:30
The Mariners' No. 5 starter is Wade LeBlanc. You could make the argument that Hamels would slot in as the No. 2 right behind Paxton
Now, on the other hand, the Mariners right now are basically playing for one game -- a road game in New York or Boston, against Severino or Sale. So, good luck
9:31
Hamels wouldn't be a factor in that game, most likely, and he might not be a factor in 2019 given the $20 million club option (albeit with a $6 million buyout)
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