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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/15/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
James
9:06
The Astros seem to have their offensive mojo back. How scared should the league be?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
I was just looking at something yesterday
I calculated every team's total negative WAR
The Astros are at -0.1 -- just Jake Marisnick
Not that that's a perfect encapsulation of everything, or even anything, but it's absurd how good and deep and healthy they are
9:08
The Astros are the best team in baseball. They're playing like it. They're going to win that division by like ten games
kyle
9:08
is there a place that I can look up xBABIP?
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
Not via Statcast. It's not included among the Baseball Savant dropdown menu options
Pio
9:09
Between his tremendous power and inability to make contact, where do you think Franchy's bat ends up?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
I know the Padres really like him, and they intend to give him a long leash
9:10
Part of that, though, has to do with his defense, which this season hasn't been good at all. He's very fast but very raw. Unpolished player in multiple areas
I think he ends up a low-lineup regular, but I doubt it ever all comes together at once
9:11
Not for more than a few games at a time
NYTT
9:11
Will the Braves be one of the five best teams in the NL at the end of the year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
In terms of record, or true talent?
9:12
In terms of record, they already have a leg up
I'm a little bit of a Braves skeptic, but at the same time, I have a feeling they could be the most likely destination for Machado. So obviously that would be a massive improvement
Scherzer's Blue Eye
9:13
Given the Nationals' soft contact and hard contact rates (5th and 7th worst in MLB), how much do you see their MLB-worst BABIP changing?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
They're about to have more Daniel Murphy and less Wilmer Difo, and more Adam Eaton and less Michael Taylor
9:14
They're going to hit a lot. And while Harper's BABIP is a terrible .213, his career mark is .315. No reason to believe he suddenly sucks
NYTT
9:15
Is Dansby Swanson good now? Average-ish bat and plus defense at shortstop looks good even though his BABIP is higher than you'd like
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
Defensively I think he's playing over his head, and I don't trust his current offensive profile much. I see him as more of an average everyday player
Career DRS of 0, and UZR of +0.8
Slurve
9:16
What's the biggest reason for the Mariners' success to this point?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
Clutch performance
First among all teams in batting Clutch, second among all teams in pitching Clutch
9:17
We've seen this before from other teams. I recall that 2016 Rangers
9:18
The Mariners are third in high-leverage wRC+, and 19th in low-leverage wRC+
9:19
They're third in high-leverage wOBA allowed, and 17th in low-leverage wOBA allowed
They're a perfectly adequate team, but this is always basically a mirage
Preller
9:20
Will the Yankees go after Brad Hand? Maybe package him with Tyson Ross, what kind of package would it take?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
Given how the Padres make demands in negotiations, it's hard for me to see Cashman being the guy who caves
9:21
Which isn't to say he *won't* go after Hand or Ross, but Cashman surely doesn't want to dip into his best prospects. Maybe for Hand, but the Padres are going to try to drive a nearly impossible bargain
9:22
Incidentally, if the Brewers wanted to make their bullpen lethal, they could get involved for Hand. And Ross, too, for the rotation. But they might not want to give up the pieces they have left
All Cats Are Beautiful
9:22
Did you get into baseball writing for the money or the ladies?
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
I got into it to avoid having to go to chemistry grad school
So far, so good!
O’Broxton Tortas
9:23
Is there a baseball equivalent to what’s going on in Ottawa, and do you see yourself switching NHL allegiances as some point?
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