JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/8/16

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/8/16

Jeff Sullivan

9:09

Hello friends

Let's baseball chat

Ryan

9:10

Just as high RBI and save totals are a product of opportunity, is it fair to say that great defensive metrics have a lot to do with difficult play opportunity?

Jeff Sullivan

9:10

It's difficult to say the extent, but, yeah. Opportunity is definitely a factor. As one example, take a guy who robs four or five home runs in a season. Is that something he's particularly good at, or did he just get lucky to have the chances? That can swing several runs

Art Vandelay

9:10

*looks at search bar* Glad I'm not the only one who had no idea who Ross Stripling was before today.

Jeff Sullivan

9:11

The one Dodgers depth candidate literally everyone ignored when listing them off in March

Joe

9:11

I know, intellectually, that Joey Rickard isn't going to win ROY. But couldn't we also say that he's definitely going to ROY?

Jeff Sullivan

9:12

It works to his benefit that he's on the roster from Day 1. But he's going to have to, I don't know, steal an awful lot of bases or something in order to stand out. And he might yet lose a few hundred plate appearances to Kim if he starts showing anything

mtsw

9:13

They'll score a run eventually, but will the Padres end the year with the worst park-adjusted offense in MLB?

Jeff Sullivan

9:13

The Phillies are pretty damn bad.

The thing that gives the Padres a shot: the Phillies aren't moving Franco, and the Braves aren't moving Freeman. The Padres might move Norris and Kemp.

So the Padres' offense down the stretch could be terrrrrrrrrrrrrible

TF Fredrik

9:14

With Strasburg’s slider, it has to be a confidence or comfort issue on why he was throwing it/has tinkered with it before but scrapped it, and now this year he finally feels good about grip, command, movement on it, right? This is the kind of unknowable info regular fans like us wish we had more insight on. From a selfish pitcher dork perspective, feel like this is right in wheel house for the beaters to be reporting on. Or maybe they do but Stras wanted to keep it a secret.

Jeff Sullivan

9:15

It was kind of funny that Strasburg denied doing anything. Maybe he just misunderstood the question, I don't know, but there's no arguing with the information we have these days. He was very obviously throwing a pitch he hasn't thrown a lot before

Now, he might still scrap it again. He's done it twice before, and that's why we need to check to see if this becomes a pattern. If it does, I expect that someone will be on the case. Maybe Adam Kilgore. They'll talk about it once it's clear it's going to be a real thing. I think it's going to be.

Josh

9:16

What type of upside do you see for Eugenio Suarez this year? 20 HR a possibility?

Jeff Sullivan

9:16

I think he only gets to 20 if he gets lucky with some wall-scrapers. I like him fine as something like an average player, but he's not particularly powerful

Fan9

9:17

When will the Padres score a run?

Jeff Sullivan

9:17

They're in Colorado this afternoon, so I'll predict three runs in the first inning

Guest

9:17

if kris bryant and carlos correa were hypothetically on the same team, thats enough for a mike trout trade, right?

Jeff Sullivan

9:17

That's too much for a Mike Trout trade

Guest

9:18

the vegas over/under on the dbacks win total didn't budge after the pollock news. dont you find that strange?

Jeff Sullivan

9:18

If true, that's weird. I haven't been checking but losing Pollock for even as few as, say, four months should cost them at least 2-3 wins

Dustin

9:19

Nate Eovaldi's slider averaged 90.3 yesterday, up from the mid 80's in years past. Classification issue, or a change to his arsenal?

Jeff Sullivan

9:19

Let me do a quick check...

9:20

Yep, looks like Eovaldi has basically shelved the slower slider for something more like a cutter

9:22

Similar to the Strasburg thing, except that Strasburg didn't throw a slider much last year. Eovaldi wants a pitch he can bust inside to lefties

Phillies

9:23

Will we finish with more than 70 wins?

Jeff Sullivan

9:23

Unless you're counting spring training?

Then you'd just need 56 in the regular season. Manageable

Guest

9:23

are the astros the safest bet for the playoffs the AL has to offer?

Jeff Sullivan

9:24

I believe so

jtt

9:25

Why isn't Eovaldi better?

Jeff Sullivan

9:26

People get blinded by the fastball velocity and ignore that the spin isn't special. It's hard, but it's still hittable, somewhere in between a four-seam and a two-seam in a way. So it's a pitch you can put in play, and it's a pitch you can also count on seeing before the splitter comes out with two strikes

I still like Eovaldi fine but the velocity makes people think he should be a Cy Young candidate

Bork

9:27

Is the next start basically make or break for the Aaron Sanchez hype train?

Jeff Sullivan

9:27

No? Even if it's bad, he was so good the first time around people can ignore it. Sanchez deserves the half-season

Guest

9:27

pick to win the stanley cup?

Jeff Sullivan

9:27