JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/29/16

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/29/16

Jeff Sullivan

9:10

Well dammit friends

Let's just baseball chat

Hello

Guest

9:10

Jeff, OMG did you fix Chris Archer???

Jeff Sullivan

9:11

Chris Archer didn't need very much fixing, which helps

It's like trying to fix David Price

Guest

9:11

1. Who has more power: Sano or Park?

Jeff Sullivan

9:11

I have to imagine Sano is one of the very strongest hitters in all of baseball. Park's good, but Sano is a freak

GDUBSS

9:12

With Dee Gordon suspended for 80 games, how do you see the Marlins 2nd base situation playing out? Dietrich and Rojas in a platoon? How many wins do you think this will cost the marlins over those 80 games?

Jeff Sullivan

9:13

I'd guess mostly Dietrich. And I'd guess about a win and a half? There's something to be said for all the ways in which Gordon can impact a game, but there's also something to be said for Dietrich's ability to hit a dinger

9:14

Is Shelby Miller toast as a front of the rotation arm?

Jeff Sullivan

9:15

Definitely not. Go back through his 2014 game log. In April, he had 21 walks and 26 strikeouts, plus seven home runs

9:16

He was bad in August. Over six starts between June and July, he had as many walks as strikeouts, and an ERA over 6

Miller clearly isn't right, but he's no less capable than he was a month ago

j6takish

9:17

Jeff, I’ve had to take medication for the past week and one of the side effects is really weird/detailed dreams. I had a dream that I thought of a really good fangraphs chat question. I was really excited waking up because I had remembered the question from my dream. I thought about it for a few minutes upon waking and I realized it was really stupid and didn’t even make any sense… but will you answer it anyway? Would you play for the Braves if you had to a sign a 10 year league minimum contract and you also had to live in a dorm room the entire time?

Jeff Sullivan

9:17

I'm less likely to say yes now than I would've been 10 years ago. In large part because the Braves would realize I'm not good and then they'd drop me

Although if they'd drop me, then I'd be guaranteed all that money...

9:18

I'll take it!

Say hello to your new Braves southpaw! I could definitely step in for Bud Norris

Kvn

9:19

Is Collin McHugh this year's Rick Porcello? You keep waiting for him to fix it and he just never does?

Jeff Sullivan

9:19

The last four times out, he has three walks and 17 strikeouts. It'll take a while for his numbers to recover from that miserable first start. But McHugh should be okay. It's worth remembering he wasn't nearly as good last year as the year before

CameronDaClub

9:20

Harvey erase any/all concern with that last start?

Jeff Sullivan

9:20

It's not all gone -- it was the Reds -- but Harvey does seem mostly back on track. I'm a lot less worried than I was a week and a half ago

Yusuf

9:23

Hey Jeff, Michael Conforto is off to a great start--tops the league in exit velocity, getting on base, etc. After roughly a half-season of major league plate appearances who would you say is an accurate comp for him?

Jeff Sullivan

9:25

This one took me a few minutes because my mind went blank but then it kept trying to say Alex Gordon? It's not a perfect comp, because Gordon has better defense and Conforto might have more power, but that seems like the right general area

Gabriel

9:26

About T. Walker, the difference in pitch selection is attributed to Ianetta or to the new coaching staff?

Jeff Sullivan

9:26

I don't know the specific answer to this, but I would assume it's all collaborative. And mostly about Walker and his catchers. And of course, Walker has the final say. He feels comfortable enough with his secondary weapons, and so he's featuring them more

Shower Thoughts

9:27

What do you see as the top three Union and League considerations going into the CBA discussions this year?

Jeff Sullivan

9:29

Better question for Dave because this is more his wheelhouse than mine. League'll push for an international draft. There'll be talk about harsher PED suspensions. Certain owners clearly want to try to reduce any incentives to lose. Players will try to raise the league-minimum salary. They could/should make some changes to the rules to quit it with service-time manipulation

Oh, and the QO. Lots of talk about the QO

Impotent Rage

9:29

DEE GORDON!

Erik

9:29

Does Dee Gordon's suspension hint at possibly more widespread PED use in baseball than we thought? As in, if even 8-career-HRs-Gordon sees a benefit from PEDs and thinks he can get away with it, might we fear that players who fit the more conventional steroid-user profile are using more than we thought?

Jeff Sullivan

9:31

This one is really obnoxious. I mean, look -- I personally don't care too much about PEDs. The game is entertainment. In theory I feel like players can do what they want to do, within reason. But this does make for a lopsided landscape, hurting other players, and just as bad, Gordon ruined everything because now literally no one is safe. No one is safe from speculation. Gordon is the complete opposite of the typical steroid profile. Which means everybody is in play

9:32

Jake Arrieta? Steroids. Dee Gordon? Steroids. Wade Davis? Steroids. Taijuan Walker? Steroids. Matt Carpenter? Steroids. Kenta Maeda? Steroids. Ichiro? Probably steroids

It can all get so ridiculous, and we can't say anything, because Gordon getting busted is ridiculous. This is horrible MLB PR

Like it or not, baseball is the sport people think has the problem. Football has the actual problem -- several of the actual problems -- but baseball is the steroid laughingstock in popular culture. And that shit is unkillable, because of nonsense like this

Nicholas

9:34

Hey Jeff, I really enjoyed reading your article about Taijuan Walker. I wrote a community blog the other day looking at Walker's improvement, so it was really cool to see what you wrote! Do you have any writing and/or research tips that could help me write better articles? That was my first one that I have done, but I have ideas for more.

Jeff Sullivan

9:35

When doing a deep dive on a player, I just to just go exploring. Look at stat after stat after stat and see what speaks to me. Sometimes I'll know what to look for going in, but with Walker, it was basically: "All right, what's happening? How might I be able to explain Walker's ascent?" I probably spent four hours just poking around different places? And then like 45 minutes doing actual writing. The exploration is fun. Exhausting, sometimes, but I think it's possible to learn something new every single time you do an investigation

Josh

9:38

How impressed have you been with Aaron Nola? What type of ceiling does he have at this point?

Jeff Sullivan

9:40

I like Nola quite a bit. He always seemed like a pretty safe major leaguer, and he's clearly pitching with a lot of confidence, coming right after the strike zone. He's not the only Phillies pitcher doing that, and nothing has happened to slow them down. I think Nola still needs to be able to give lefties another look, but pitcher ceilings are hard to discuss because elite levels can turn out accessible to almost anyone. Nola, right now, is good. Which means he has the ability to be great. Probably won't be, but there's no harm in hoping

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