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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/15/19
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Jeff Sullivan
9:06
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
LudeBurger
9:07
Prospects, Jeff. Prospects.
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
Not your guy, LudeBurger
The Electrician
9:07
Do you think there will be a rush of free agent signings once teams move their guys to the 60 day DL and open up 40 man roster spots?
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Already seeing it. Oakland used a 60-day stint to make room for Robbie Grossman. Also used one to make room for Brett Anderson. Arizona used one to make room for Caleb Joseph. Miami used one to make room for Sergio Romo. Kansas City used one to make room for Jake Diekman, etc
Cody
9:09
So, Yangervis Solarte signed before Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. Um, I don't know what else to say.
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
Wouldn't you expect that to be the case?
Signing Yangervis Solarte *might* take two phone calls
Signing Bryce Harper or Manny Machado probably takes about 150
Plus multiple in-person visits and everything else that goes along
9:11
It's like saying I bought groceries before I had my wedding. That doesn't mean I want groceries more than I want to be married
Bo
9:12
As top tier FAs remain unsigned, who is "winning" and "losing" by it dragging out? Why not issue a "best and final" demand to suitors if you're Boras?
Jeff Sullivan
9:13
Because everything is flexible. If you get teams to meet you at a certain level, what's to stop you from wanting to hold out until they get to the *next* level?
So much of this is about how neither Harper nor Machado wants to sign first. They know what position that would put the other guy in
9:14
The sport as a whole is losing, the longer this goes on. There's blame on all sides, but it's an ugly look for the league nevertheless
mike
9:15
Hey Jeff, Eno released his rankings and has Paxton higher than Carrasco. He is the only one I see that has him higher. Can you make a case for thinking Paxton has a better season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
They project to be very similar, and Paxton has joined one of the organizations that excels at player development. It wouldn't be crazy to think the Yankees can unlock something extra that the Mariners didn't tap into
Certainly nothing you can just take for granted, but it's not insane
Mitch
9:19
So, how bad is the underpay on Luis Severino? 4/40 with a club option for year 5 is just nuts, given that those 4 years are his 4 arb years (thanks, Super-2), and it's not impossible that he could have been making 10 mil in year 2 of arb, much less years 3 and 4.
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
Definitely an underpay, and there's hardly any precedent for someone in Severino's situation signing an extension like this. I guess in 2012, Gio Gonzalez was a Super Two, and he signed for five years and $42 million, with two options
9:22
The upside for Severino's camp is that he signed away just one year of free agency. He didn't sign away like three of them. But again, everyone knows that this is Severino's prime. Free agency isn't what it was. There are going to be more and more of these
psweeting
9:22
Sevy extension seems really team friendly. Another guy not betting on himself?
Jeff Sullivan
9:23
At least for a power pitcher, you can understand the desire to get a guarantee, since your career can be sidetracked on any given pitch
9:25
And again, in *every single case,* it makes perfect rational sense for a player to agree to an extension. What's the marginal value of another dollar when you're locked in for like $40m+? Severino will never have to worry about money again. He made it. It's a great success
But teams understand the imbalance. Teams understand how appealing these extensions are. And they will continue to lean club-friendly, until or unless there are structural changes affecting arbitration and the league minimums
9:27
Teams aren't doing anything wrong, but they're also not incentivized to offer more money than they have to. If the union wants to see fewer club-friendly extensions, they need to collectively negotiate for changes. Or just cultivate a bunch more Trevors Bauer, players who insist on always going year to year
Bork
9:27
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
Hello friend
Fartrell Cluggins
9:27
I don't think I have ever been more excited for baseball season to start. This offseason has been so long
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
And it's not even over, Fartrell Cluggins
mmddyyyy
9:27
How do you know if a team has enough depth?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
By measuring how much depth it has
9:28
You can typically sort of eyeball it, but there are also ways to run the math using projections. You want some sort of big-league-caliber replacement at every position, and you probably want up to eight big-league starters
stever20
9:29
so Severino signs a deal today after Nola the other day.  Is this going to be a real trend, or just 2 guys getting it when they could?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
Trend
Damian
9:29
Not enough people talk about Evan Gattis hitting 11 triples in 2015, and none in the 3 seasons since.
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
Damian is on it, everybody
CamdenWarehouse
9:29
With opt-outs being used to add additional value to free agent contracts. Has the that value decreased significantly after the last two offseasons to the point where we’re not likely to see them?
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
I think they'll still exist, but they have been devalued, and so that will just be priced in. If an opt-out used to be valued around, say, $20 million, maybe now it's more like...$10 - 15 million?
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