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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/18/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:04
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
LudeBurger
9:04
If you're late again, I swear to all holy heck...
Jeff Sullivan
9:04
I'm late literally every week
Bork
9:04
Hello, friend! Apologies for my absence last week.
Jeff Sullivan
9:04
Hello friend
I forgive my friends
Bret
9:04
Did the Jays do a bad thing by signing Kendrys Morales for three-years and $33M in early November?
Jeff Sullivan
9:05
A really bad thing involves giving away quality prospects. The Jays just wasted some money. Morales, simply, is not very good, but he has his uses, and he shouldn't look terrible on that roster for a couple of years
I don't love the inflexibility of a permanent DH but that might just be my own taste
Jack
9:05
Does a Sonny Gray to Atlanta deal make sense? If so, what would a return look like?
Jeff Sullivan
9:06
I have a very hard time seeing Gray getting traded this winter. Everyone in baseball would love to buy low, but the A's have no reason to *sell* low, so it would require some bidder to pay as if Gray just had a normal season. I don't see that happening
Roadhog
9:06
Cashner is going to be a starter, or a reliever for Texas?
Jeff Sullivan
9:06
This addresses the most recent news -- Cashner is apparently signing with the Rangers for a year and $10 million
9:07
Every reason to assume he'll start. He hasn't been a reliever since 2012, the Rangers have liked him for a while, and their rotation was and is thin
Plus, their bullpen is deep. They don't need Cashner in relief right now anyway
9:08
The fact that he got just one year tells you something about how he's perceived. Cashner's just 30 and his fastball's still 94. He should be pretty good. He's not! So he's hoping here for a bounceback
Hard for me to see Cashner being better than Derek Holland, but maybe he's more physically reliable
Dan
9:09
What kind of contract would McCann get if he were a free agent?
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
Probably something like 2/$30m, maybe with an option to stretch it to 3/$40m or so. He didn't have much surplus value, which is why the Yankees had to pay him down to get prospects back
Ember
9:11
What do you think the Yankees will do for DH?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
I could easily see Beltran coming back. My sense remains that the Yankees don't want to end up with a Cespedes or Encarnacion-sized commitment right now
Matt
9:13
Is there a trade scenario where the Pirates could get a top of the rotation arm for McCutchen? Any fits that you see?
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
I really can't think of anything like that right now. Not with a starter already in the major leagues. They could get good pitching prospects, of course, but I don't know why a team would subtract a good player from the big-league roster to add a good player to the big-league roster
9:15
You'd need to find a team with a hole in the outfield and a pitching surplus, where they could give up a pitcher in a similar contract situation. You could almost imagine Sonny Gray, except the A's aren't very good and so McCutchen would hold less appeal to them
Jimmy
9:15
What do you see out of Leonys Martin this year? More like his pre or post-injury self, or in between?
Jeff Sullivan
9:16
I expect him to be very similar to what he just was, except he should move better in the outfield if he doesn't hurt his legs again
He's relatively underpowered, so when the fly balls aren't going out, he's going to look terrible at the plate. Strikeouts and flies to the warning track are a lousy recipe. But there's enough pop in there that he can slug another 15-20 dingers
Jack
9:17
Which FA pitcher will end up being the biggest bargain at the end of the offseason?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
I'm enchanted by a hypothetically healthy version of Charlie Morton, as I wrote about, but I wouldn't be shocked if it's Rich Hill
Lure of the Animal
9:17
Which result is more surprising: last Tuesday's, or yesteday's?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
Last Tuesday's. Yesterday's was also surprising, but at the end of the day, it makes sense
Pie
9:18
As an Astro's fan, I'm pretty happy with yesterday. Moving forward, do you see any more potential moves in the lineup? I could see Gurriel slotting into the open outfield spot and/or first base, but I think the team is reluctant to have him play significant time in the outfield.
Jeff Sullivan
9:19
The Astros have a lot of flexibility right now. And I saw they're still interested in Beltran, which would only make things more cramped. Gurriel's only opening at the moment is first base, unless they want to shift Marisnick to the bench and play Springer in center. I think Marisnick's pretty useful so for now I think you're going to see the Astros running out a bunch of different lineups to mix and match
9:20
The elephant in the room is that the Astros could go for a home-run style of pitching acquisition. They could, in theory, deal Springer or something for a Sale or Archer. Springer is very valuable, of course, but they feel like they're missing a true ace. They have an opportunity, even if something is unlikely to happen
Steven
9:21
On a scale of 1 to Monkey's Uncle, how surprised were you that Trout actually won last night?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
Monkey's second cousin
9:22
A vote like that was inevitable, in the big picture. Surprising that it happened in 2016, but so much has been written about Trout by individual members of the BBWAA that it's not a total shock enough of them were persuaded to break from tradition
J
9:22
Thoughts on the McCann trade? Really like that the Astros got a good player at a barren position for a reduced price although the Yankees also saved money to use elsewhere and got some flame throwers. Seems like a win win.
Jeff Sullivan
9:23
As my own personal rule of thumb I almost ignore pitching prospects at the lowest levels. They don't mean much to me, because their odds of success are so slim. I like the pickup for the Astros, and I actually do believe in that modest value of McCann filling a leadership void
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