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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/9/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chats. We've got a nice little streak of four straight weeks going, something that  hasn't happened since May and June, just before the summer travel began.
Anyway, in case you missed it, I wrote a tribute to Davey Johnson, who passed away over the weekend. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/davey-johnson-1943-2025-a-man-ahead-of-the...
12:05
I'm more convinced than ever that Johnson belongs in the Hall. Nothing against Lou Piniella, who missed by one vote on the 2024 Era Committee ballot while Jim Leyland got elected — with Johnson in the "5 votes or fewer scrum — but Johnson's managerial career is superior to Piniella's in everything but length, and he was a real innovator in terms of his usage of personal computers and his carrying on the Earl Weaver legacy.
12:06
Anyhoo, I've got a piece in the pipeline today about candidates for the 30-30 club. Would you believe Juan Soto is the closest to joining from among this year's crop, and that he has more steals over the past ~2 months than any major leaguer? Yeah, weird times.
Alby
12:07
Of the pitchers who will finish with fewer than 200 wins, whose election do you think would do the most to get voters to change their standards – somebody who's not a unicorn like DeGrom but would represent the new level that would allow a representative cohort to follow him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
I touched upon this a few weeks ago when I did my Hall of Fame progress series (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2025-progress-rep...). I think the answer might be Chris Sale, who is 36 years old, has 143 wins, and has the next-highest S-JAWS after Verlander, Kershaw, and Scherzer (49.2). I don't see him getting to 200 wins, but 3,000 strikeouts is a possibility (he needs 454), and between his perennial Cy Young candidacy and his bWAR rankings (including six times in his league's top 5), I think he's going to be the best choice we see for a few years.
12:13
Cole Hamels (48.2 S-JAWS, 163 wins) will be on the ballot this winter and will be a preview case for this. He won't fare well, particularly because of his lack of a Cy Young, but he'll be the best candidate until the big guys hit the ballot.
Phil
12:13
Would you agree that Rafaela *has* to play center regardless of who's available? I know Clemens and others have addressed this, but I feel like the Sox overvalue versatility sometimes, which was a problem in the past with Kiké Hernandez etc.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
No lineup decision is made in a vacuum, and while the metrics tell us that Ceddanne Rafaela is one of the best center fielders in the game, the Red Sox's roster construction is such that there may be days where he's their best option at second base (where he's basically average), because David Hamilton (who's very good there) has a 55 wRC+.
12:19
In other words, the Sox may need offense more than defense on that particular day, or they may be using a more groundball-heavy pitcher who minimizes the Red Sox's advantage of having a great center fielder and allows them to put Duran there.

That said, given the state of the Red Sox outfield with Anthony likely done for the year and Abreu still sidelined (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-red-sox-are-stretched-thin-by-the-loss...), it's probably a pretty small set of circumstances where all this would make sense, since putting Masataka Yoshido in left field (or right) probably neutralizes a lot of other advantages conferred by putting Rafaela at second.
sodo mojo
12:20
What does a Eugenio Suarez deal look like next year.  He has been a monster at the plate this year with 132 WRc+ and 45 bombs but he is also going to be 35 and his defense has taken a large step back.  Is he looking at a short 1-2 year deal but with a high AAV or is he good enough that he can command a 3 year deal even with the risk?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
Oh I think he gets three years, though it might take bells and whistles (options, escalators) to get there. Maybe something in the 3/$60M+ range.
Doug
12:22
Do you see any possibilities of the WC round going to 5 games ever? Could have the top 2 seeds play in a 3 game series for the top seed (or let them
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
I'm sure MLB would love to create more playoff baseball (ugh) while reducing the length of the regular season, something Manfred and the owners would like to do, but absolutely won't f------ happen without significant financial gains for the players. My guess is that the owners' position for the upcoming CBA is going to be so dipped in shit that they won't get far with the idea.
Lord Thunder
12:24
Has Mark Vientos salvaged his chance to be in the Mets' 2026 mix?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
the guy has a 145 wRC+ in the second half and he'll be a year away from arbitration eligibility. Even if Pete Alonso exercises his player option and returns, I don't see the Mets parting ways with Vientos unless it's part of a big trade that gets them something much better.
WinTwins0410
12:27
Jay, great piece on Davey Johnson -- thank you for writing it.  I thought it was terrific -- as was Bruce Weber's obit in the New York Times (not sure if you saw that).  If I may jump ahead to the Eras committee balloting for the HoF after the season ends, I wanted to ask: Despite how well Gary Sheffield did on his final writers' ballot (63.9%), does he really have a shot of getting in from the Eras committee, however tangential his PED connections may be?  Seems like it'd be weird if a small committee let him in but not Bonds and Clemens.  What do you think?  The more I think about it, the more it "feels" to me like a committee (and Eras committees have been notoriously stingy toward anyone associated with PEDs anyhow) would struggle to admit Sheffield before Bonds/Clemens.  Thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
Thanks for the kind words about Johnson and yes, I did see Weber's piece, which was good. I think you've hit on exactly the mess that the upcoming Era Committee faces. I honestly don't know how it's going to shake out except that with Sheffield, Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Kent and (maybe) Lofton, Whitaker, and Dwight Evans it could be an absolute cluster----.
Seattle
12:33
How instrumental is it that seattle resigns naylor, he's such a smart player and is bringing all of these traits that seattle hasnt had since idk when, just a pleasure getting to watch this guy every night
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
Naylor has been a timely addition for the Mariners. Can you believe he's 25-for-27 in stolen base attempts this year despite sprint speed that places him in the 2nd percentile? That said, he's a ballplayer with limitations; right now he's in his third straight season with 2-3 WAR and a wRC+ in the 118-127 range. That's hardly a must-retain except at a certain price point.
2131, 1312
12:37
Do you think Colton Cowser can be a legit center fielder for the O's? He doesn't have to be there every day for the next 5 years, but just long enough until ... idk, Enrique Bradfield
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
I'm not convinced. The guy hit for a 118 wRC+ last year but has crashed to an 85 wRC+ with a 34.3% strikeout rate this year, which is pretty unplayable for a regular who isn't an elite fielder. To me that's a guy who should be back in Triple-A, not an everyday regular.
BobbyGrichHoF
12:45
Hey Jay. I was wondering what your thoughts on Sammy's guilty by association steroid use. Sosa never failed a positive test, a lot of the evidence is circumstantial like Piazza or Bagwell, and people hold him using an interpreter in court against him, which is really stupid because English is not his first language. Love all of the work you've done.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
I think a lot of racism has seeped into the portrayals of Sosa going back to Curt Schilling making fun of him with his "Baseball been berry, berry good to me" caricature at the 2002 Home Run Derby and yes, the interpretation of his using an interpreter in court. Not that Sosa's own conduct hasn't helped to fan the flames or that he's as pure as the driven snow. But I've always been suspicious of Manfred publicly noting that David Ortiz's reported positive on the survey test was for a substance that would have been challenged in arbitration, without mentioning whether the same was true for Sosa.
RAGBRAI
12:50
A lot of good rookie pitchers. Is any one of them off to a start similar to current HOFers? In others words based on their rookie year, who has a good basis to build on that in 10-12 years (or more) they have HOF potential. I realize this is all speculative.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
Assuming you're talking about actual rookies and not young pitchers à la Paul Skenes (the obvious answer if you are),  injuries are so prevalent that even speculating is probably a waste of time. Less than a full year in to a pitcher's career I'd be looking more at stuff than performance if I wanted to think about his long-term profile, with guys like Misiorowski and Schlittler standing out  — but since we don't have, say, Stuff+ going back far enough to make comparisons to Hall of Famers, it's all kind of fruitless.
Guest
12:55
Is Tanner Scott cooked?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
The stuff is still good enough, and he's getting batters to chase, but... it's not working out in general. i think it's very hard to live as just a two-pitch pitcher; he probably has to add a third offering to avoid falling into the same patterns.
2017
12:57
Does Judge losing that MVP and then rocketing past Altuve in WAR feel like a funny turn of events?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
Eh, Judge was (and still is) the younger player with the higher ceiling so it felt at least somewhat inevitable. But I don't think anyone saw this coming.
Guest
12:58
Is Shohei truly a unicorn? He may be doing it better than Babe Ruth, but he’s not unique in being a MLBer who has hit and pitched in significant quantities.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
Yes, he's a unicorn. It's not just that he did both well, it's that he's done them contemporaneously. Ruth's double-duty days didn't last very long, and he was doing it all pre-integration against farm boys who pumped gas or ran the general store in the offseason. Ohtani has been kept on a short leash because of his latest injury but he's already had more seasons with 100 innings and 500 plate appearances than Ruth (3 to 1); you'd have to go down to 151 PA to get three seasons where Ruth pulled such double duty.
Pinstriped Power
1:02
Stanton looks like he will come right up to the for 500 home runs before his contract runs out. Makes you wonder: excluding PEd players and cheats, what the most home runs by someone not in the Hall, and should they be in there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:04
Pretty easy to answer that. Excluding the not-yet-eligible Pujols and Cabrera, the top home run hitter outside the Hall who was never linked to PEDs is Carlos Delgado (473). Alas, he's a guy with just 44.4 career WAR as he was a subpar defender and baserunner who retired after his age-37 season and just doesn't have the portfolio of a Hall of Famer. A true mensch, though. https://www.si.com/mlb/2014/12/15/jaws-2015-hall-of-fame-ballot-carlos...
Nancy's Friend Sluggo
1:08
How close was Bobby Bonds to being a HOFer? He had the peak, but he didn't compile a lot. (Maybe incessant smoking was an obstacle to continued performance?!?) I'm sure in the time before 3 True Outcomes, his K rates were a deal killer. I wonder if it would be different if he was having the same career today. Thanks, man!
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:12
Bobby didn't make it into The Cooperstown Casebook but I've written about him in brief before, most notably at the bygone Pinstriped Bible. Updating the numbers:

A natural center fielder who got stuck in right field by the Giants because he had the misfortune of arriving when Willie Mays was still a going concern, Bonds averaged 5.9 bWAR per year from 1969 through 1974 as a Giant before being traded to the Yankees for Bobby Murcer. He didn’t lose a beat, hitting .270/.375/.512 with 32 homers and 30 steals in his lone season in pinstripes, good for 5.0 WAR...

Bonds seemed to spend much of his career under a cloud of bad luck. He and Reggie Jackson were almost exactly the same age and debuted one year apart. Both had power, considerable speed and a ton of strikeouts, and finished with similar career rate stats (.268/.353/.471/129 OPS+ for Bonds to .262/.356/.490/139 OPS+ for Jackson)...
Yet one was a superduperstar who won an MVP award and five World Series rings, and stuck around into his  forties. The other never finished higher than third in an MVP vote, played just three postseason games, left the majors at 35, his career foreshortened by problems with alcohol.
Nancy's Friend Sluggo
1:12
I'm about the same age as you, and I don't think I've cared for a single MLB Commissioner during my life. Who do you think was the best of the lot during our era?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:13
Giamatti, for banning Pete Rose.
Nancy's Friend Sluggo
1:13
How do you think the market will see Michael King this winter? He's a wonderful pitcher who's been banged up in ten different ways in 2025. If he remains in an upright and locked position in September and October, do you think a long-term deal will be waiting for him?
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