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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/9/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Good afternoon folks, and welcome to another edition of my Monday chat. Apparently, I screwed something up and the queue has been open for awhile, but that just gives us a good stock of questions to start with.
12:04
My piece for today, on the premature end of Mike Trout's season, went up a little while ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trouts-season-is-over-which-completel.... It's a bummer, but not half as much a bummer as the death of Ric Ocasek, news of which reached me (and everybody else) last night.

The Cars were an unstoppable hit machine when I was in grade school. Entry level new wave/post-punk, catchy as hell, icy cool. Only later did I appreciate the extent to which they were a gateway to so many great bands that influenced them — Kraftwerk, Roxy Music, Bowie, Suicide, the Modern Lovers, etc. Their first album is utter perfection, and the ones that followed are pretty damn good as well.
Anyway, on with the show.
MVP
12:04
Do you think Trout hangs on to win the AL MVP vote despite missing effectively the last 3 weeks of the season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
I address that in the piece. While we've seen a handful of players win while toiling for sub-.500 teams, and win while playing in 140 or fewer games in a 162-game schedule, we've never seen anybody who's at the intersection of that Venn diagram. Alex Bregman is closing in on Trout, and while he won't overtake him, I can see the strong possibility of voters screwing the best player on Planet Earth yet again. Brace yourselves.
stever20
12:06
How crazy is it that in the last 3 years Trout has missed now 98 games.  Costing him 30 homers and 106 hits based on what he's done in those 3 years on average.  How worried are you that he's gonig to turn into this generations Ken Griffey Jr.?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
Eh, I don't think we're there yet. The thing that felled Griffey was chronic hamstring injuries; he was never able to get back to 100%. Trout has suffered some dings but I don't think any of the individual injuries has rated as more than a passing concern — obviously, the thumb and wrist injuries didn't prevent him from excelling after returning, and this neuroma thing is pretty minor in the grand scheme.
Ben Dubose
12:09
Will Bregman get seriously consideration for MVP now? He can get pretty close to Trout in both flavors of WAR with a good finish to the season. Not sure who has the better narrative advantage though "best player on best team" or "we can't possibly screw over Trout again can we?"
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
I think it's possible — his isn't a bad case at all given how close he is in WAR and rate stats for a playoff team. That said, the Astros are running away with the AL West by such a degree that it's tough to make the case they couldn't have won with (insert name of the several ex-Astros 3Bs currently playing elsewhere) manning the hot corner instead of Bregman.
Adam
12:10
Have we seen the last of Rich Hill?  If the answer is "yes," please lie.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
I don't think so. I'm not sure he'll make it back this year, though his experience as a reliever and his determination obviously keep that door open. He said this weekend that he doesn't intend for this to be the end, and man, I'm never gonna bet against that guy given how hard he's worked to come back from so many things.
Wicho, Jr.
12:11
Which currently unemployed former managers do you think will get another shot this winter?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:15
It wouldn't surprise me at all if Joe Girardi gets a job, though his high salary could be an impediment. Jeff Banister would seem to be a reasonable guess in Pittsburgh given his past connections there and Hurdle reaching his sell-by date.
Big Joe Mufferaw
12:15
What's your thoughts on Cano and his HOF chances? It seems like people aren't using the PED thing against him, and the counting stats and metrics are there. Also, why does it seem some people get an automatic NO due to PED (Sosa, Sheffield, Bonds, Clemens, etc) and others, no one seems to care (Ortiz, Pettite, Cano)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
Cano will have to wait in line behind A-Rod, Manny and Bonds, at the very least. I don't see it happening any time soon. I do think the voters will care, particularly once he banks some milestones that would otherwise make him automatic (he needs 436 hits for 3,000, 76 homers for 400, and has four years under contract remaining).

With regard to which ones voters care about, I think it's worth noting the nuances and the personalities — each of those cases is different. Ortiz was all but officially exonerated by Manfred himself, for example.
Big Joe Mufferaw
12:21
Do you think Hideki Matsui should be in the HOF? He was a bigger star in Japan than Ichiro ever was, and anyone we have seen since. He has a combined 509 HR, 1000+ xbh hits, 2600+ hits, .293 avg, .908 OPS, 1500+ Runs, 1600+ RBI, 1400 walks.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
He's in Japan's Hall, which is where he belongs.
TK
12:24
For the A's to get the roster space they need to use Luzardo in the offseason, they'd have to keep Piscotty on the IL for the year. Worth it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
i haven't really tracked this and I'd generally caution about chicken-counting when it comes to injuries even two weeks out, particularly given that Piscotty isn't close to game-ready yet.
Adam
12:28
On the list of eligible players not currently in the HOF, how far down do you have to go before you get to Gary Sheffield?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
He has the 12th-highest JAWS among next year's BBWAA slate, and I wouldn't hesitate to put him ahead of number 11, Bobby Abreu, because of my suspicions about the extremity of Shef's defensive metrics . I could be convinced to put him ahead of Sosa, who's a lost cause among the voters, too.
Seamus Catuli
12:31
I am sure you have covered this elsewhere/efore, but what are your quick opinions of HOF worthiness of the CFers on the list in your Trout piece who are not in yet: Beltran, Lofton, Andruw, and Edmonds?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
I'd put the first three in. I'm less convinced about Edmonds but whoa could that guy play.
Dave
12:31
Where do you think Maddon goes if he isn't given a new contract?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
Well, the Mets won't pay him what he wants, and he's probably too smart to walk into that organizational mess. Maybe the Phillies given the hot seat that Kapler is on.
Alec
12:34
What direction do you think Farhan should take looking for the next Giants manager?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
I'd be very interested to see what Hensley Meulens can do, though I know Ron Wotus, who's also on the coaching staff, is considered to be a strong candidate, too. I've heard great things about Carlos Beltran and it wouldn't surprise me if he surfaces as a candidate, too
Eric C
12:38
What kind of contract does Dellin Betances get offered this year via free agency?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
Two years plus an option, with vesting and escalators in there. There's a lot riding on how he looks over the next several weeks.
Oaktoon
12:39
People sleeping on A's?  13-2 last two weeks. 10-4 v HOU/NYY home and home last month. 71-35 since May 16-- best record in MLB. Manaea 18IP 6 H 1 R. Laureano healthy again. Puk and Luzardo up. Why can't they win the AL?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
In a short series, anything can happen, and it's not out of the question that they win the AL, but the odds suggest they have to beat both the Astros and Yankees to get to the World Series, which is a very tall order.
Nick
12:40
Looking at the JAWS leaders for relief pitchers, a lot of the leaders have a substantial number of games as starting pitchers.  That obviously gives them an advantage in JAWS (since more innings means more WAR), so have you considered a revised JAWS metric for relievers that might try to exclude people who spent large chunks of their career as starters?  Such a metric might help isolate those pitchers who actually satisfy our modern conception of what a "relief" pitcher is.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
I'm 3 years into looking at relievers using a combination of bWAR, WPA, and WPA/LI. See https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2019-hall-of-fame-ballot-bill...
Chat Mapman
12:41
It seems like teams have been reluctant to use the 7 day IL lately. Why is this? Guys like Gary Sanchez, Brad Hand, Alex Dickerson, and Mike Fiers are clearly going to need to have had at least 10 days off before returning.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
the 7-day is only for players dealing with concussions.
Morbo
12:42
Speaking of unemployed managers: How do you think the Cardinals defensive turnaround this season and current status as the division leader further affects the perception of Mike Matheny as a major league manager?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
If Matheny manages again in the majors, I would be shocked.
Ryan
12:43
Someone asked Craig Edwards this question in a chat last week, and he suggested Bryant or Correa:  Which current player has the best chance to break Jeter's all-time record for post-season PAs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
I don't think anyone will get anywhere close to Jeter's 734 PA, but if you're putting those two guys on the board, the two I'd add are Bregman and Lindor, especially because the latter isn't likely to stay in Cleveland once he reaches free agency
mike G
12:47
Who wins AL Cy Young, JV or Cole?
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