JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/30/22

Jay Jaffe

2:02

Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Friday chats! It's a crisp fall day in Brooklyn, and the air is filled with anticipation of whether Aaron Judge can set us free by hitting his 62nd homer

2:03

I turned my attention back to the Hall of Fame and S-JAWS this week with a look at some pitchers born in the 1960s https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-back-to-the-sixties-p... There's a second installment pending. I also took a look at Kyle Wright's big season (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kyle-wright-reaches-a-rare-milestone-in-hi...) and Luis Castillo's contract extension (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/luis-castillo-is-going-to-be-a-mariner-for...)

Mike

2:04

Who’s your pick for the last NL wildcard spot?

Jay Jaffe

2:05

I'm going with the Brewers, who close at home with six against the Marlins and Diamondbacks, over the Phillies, who close on the road with seven against the Nationals and Astros.

James

2:06

How do the playoff odds have the Mets with better WS odds than the Dodgers when the Mets may still end up as a wild card?

Jay Jaffe

2:07

That's a good question to which I don't know the answer. It seems odd given the 20% chance that they get the Wild Card spot and have to beat the 5th seed — likely the Padres, whom they're definitely better than, but short series yadda yadda — to get a shot at the Dodgers in the NLCS.

barney gumble

2:07

hi Jay. what do you think is stuck in Gerrit Cole's craw? I don't really buy the whole "he gets bothered easily and falls apart" narrative. still an elite K-BB but he allows a homer just about every start (just fewer than 1 per 6 IP).

Jay Jaffe

2:09

His fastball isn't quite as good as it has been. Michael Ajeto took a deep dive at Baseball Prospectus (https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/77581/climbing-the-lad...) and seems to think it has to do with throwing more of them, and doing so from a higher release point and getting different spin that's making his fastball less distinctive.

2:10

"Given that his release tilt has shifted more vertically, it’s not surprising that he’s added more ride and lost run when you look at his yearly numbers. But as his active and raw spin rates have worsened in the past few months, so have his outings. You can see these things in his vertical approach angle. Cole’s previous career-low in VAA was -4.3°, whereas this year it’s down to -4.6°, which means that his fastball shape has become much less of an outlier."

John

2:10

I am considering going to the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. Have you been or do you know if it’s worth a visit?

Jay Jaffe

2:10

I haven't been but it sounds cool!

Pitch_Out

2:10

You catching #62 tonight? I realized this morning that every player that hit for the triple crown is in the hall of fame. Seems like there'd be a random hot year in there for someone that flamed out otherwise, but no?

Jay Jaffe

2:14

Funny thing, I have tickets to the Pavement reunion tour for tonight that were bought last November. My wife is taking our daughter, whose favorite player is Judge, to the ballgame so our household is well represented. As for the Triple Crown/Hall of Fame thing, it's wild that everybody who's won (in the AL/NL at least) is in the Hall, though Chuck Klein and Joe Medwick might not be in if not for having won.

Elder Bryce

2:17

I can't believe I'm even suggesting this but should Bryce Elder get the nod over Charlie Morton in the playoffs? Granted, Elder looked good against Miami and Washington but Morton's been getting lit up so bad lately.

Jay Jaffe

2:19

I'm generally skeptical for the reason you cite and because Elder has pitched in such low leverage situations but it wouldn't surprise me to see Elder throwing important innings early in a game somewhere along the way if the Braves need to get creative.

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

2:19

Ohtani's 2022 season is like having both Carlos Rodon and Manny Machado - as DH only - on your team. Is having those two players more valuable than having just 2022 Aaron Judge?

Jay Jaffe

2:21

that's the crux of the AL MVP debate, one that is going to linger long past the point of when the winner is announced. I think Judge's season has been so insanely good enough to give him the value edge but it's close

2:22

Came home from a show last night (the Melvins at Irving Plaza) to see Ohtani chasing a no-hitter and wow, what a thing that would have been. he's been so great on the mound

2:23

BREAKING: the follow-up to yesterday's Hall of Fame-flavored piece, this one covering Kevin Brown and David Cone, is live. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-back-to-the-sixties-p...

2:24

also BREAKING: my mind when it comes to the possibility I'll have to reschedule my daughter's already time-shifted birthday party due to rain

@jay_jaffe Right now the forecast for that time frame does not look great. Most model guidance builds rain back into the area during that time. It doesn't look particularly heavy (more scattered/intermittent type), but it's definitely not going to be a nice weather day.

2:25

(if you're a fan of the NY teams who wonders about weather-related baseball questions, you should definitely give those folks a follow)

Will

2:26

Jay, thanks for all the insights. IM curious. Why do mgrs. leave a starting pitcher in for a 4th time through lineup, sometimes 3, only to have to go get the pitcher mid inning after say 90 pus pitches.? I know relievers want to come in to start inning... starters dont want to come out mid inning and we all know the pitcher isnt going to go 9.the tough it out is old school nonsense. Im beginning to believe its watch me manage duirng a game. your thoughts?

Jay Jaffe

2:28

I think it comes down to the fact that managers manage people as well as games, and sometimes they put a little too much faith in their guy who got them this far, and whom they hope can dig deep enough to find that extra whatever to get to the finish line

Guest

2:29

Hi Jay - what’s your best guess at Judge’s next contract? Odds he stays in NY? I know he’s having a remarkable season but there’s gotta be no way he delivers on the total value of whatever (and where ever)the next deal is, right?

Jay Jaffe

2:30

High % chance he stays in NY and I'm gonna say 7/$255M, just a wild ass guess. it won't be a great deal in terms of on-field value but the Yankees already believed there was a huge off-field benefit and after this season I can't imagine they value that portion any less

Blake Seams

2:31

Jose Altuve is about to post his 3rd season of 150 wRC+ or better. No second basemen has more than one such season since Joe Morgan's last in 1976. This has to go a long ways towards bolstering his HOF chances, right?

Jay Jaffe

2:33

This has been a very big season in terms of getting Altuve back on the Hall of Fame track, and he's added 1.6 points since I wrote this: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/making-tracks-on-the-road-to-cooperstown-w...

Longevity is still going to be the key for him, but this elite production adds to the possibility that he can remain very productive for a few more seasons

Appa Yip Yip

2:33

Did the Blue Jays just have the most productive off day in recent memory? They cliched a playoff spot and gained a game on Tampa for WC1 from the comfort of their living room.

Jay Jaffe

2:33

it's a pretty good day!

Ben Schneider

2:33

What do you think of Dustin Pedroia's chances of making the Hall, especially since he compared well to Bobby Doerr?

Jay Jaffe

2:36

He checks a lot of boxes with the ROY, MVP, 4 Gold Gloves and starring role on two World Series winners, but his short career (no pun intended) suggests a player who's going to be overlooked by voters. Doerr missed time due to military service and was a Veterans Committee selection 35 years after he retired thanks in part to Ted Williams being on that committee. Maybe if Ortiz is on the Era Committee...

Michael Scott

2:36

Suppose general fans (basically any non NYM fan) should root for Braves take 2 this weekend for maximum chaos? What do you think of this format overall?

Jay Jaffe

2:37

there's not much to be had in the way of chaos since the odd number of games in the season series (19, with Mets currently up 9-7) will be the only tiebreaker needed. I don't like this new format at all

Andrew Friedman

2:38

Biggest surprise of the postseason? Any chance for a surprise roster addition?

Jay Jaffe

2:39

The Mets called up Francisco Álvarez and my guess is that he takes Darin Ruf's roster spot and platoon DH role for the postseason

Dusty Baker

2:39

Yordan Alvarez has 5 DRS this year in left field but -5 OAA. How should I reconcile that difference/is OAA generally more trustworthy since it's statcast based?

Jay Jaffe

2:41

The way to reconcile it is to concede that 55 games isn't enough to get a strong read on how good he is based only on the metrics. He has worked hard to improve, and there's been some stuff written about him doing so, but at 1/3 of a season worth of games there's a lot of noise there.

Michael Scott

2:41

What do you think of Manfred-ball? Semi-decided the NL East on Wed. Is it back for 2023?

Jay Jaffe

2:41

I hate the extra innings format but given that the players and managers seem to like it, I don't see how it's going away.

TomBruno23

2:42

2022 St. Louis Cardinals HOFers...Pujols, Molina, Wainwright, Goldschmidt, Arenado and Nootbaar?

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