JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/27/18

Jay Jaffe

12:01

Hey folks, good afternoon and welcome to the latest edition of my Thursday chat. It's tending towards chaos here at my palatial Brooklyn estate because I've overextended myself a bit, with a piece on the season and Hall of Fame chances of Zack Greinke (a chat suggestion from last week, I believe), a podcast appearance, and a much-needed haircut in anticipation of my appearance on MLB Networks's MLB Now tomorrow from 4-5 PM. So I'm going to keep this a bit brief, but let's get the show on the road...

stever20

12:03

how worried should Red Sox fans be with the velocity of Sale?

Jay Jaffe

12:06

Honestly, it's really tough to judge. The raw numbers (from Brooks Baseball) are rather frightening:

BOS@BAL (8/12/18) 98.17
TOR@BOS (9/11/18) 96.19
NYN@BOS (9/16/18) 94.38
BOS@CLE (9/21/18) 93.47
BAL@BOS (9/26/18) 90.21

On the other hand, there's been virtually nothing at stake for the Red Sox in the games Sale has pitched in since his return; the playoff berth, the division and the top seed were more or less secure by that point, and it's understandable that he wouldn't push himself to the max instead of just getting his work in. That's the real question — was he deliberately throwing with less than full effort? Given his history of wearing down late in the year, if I'm a Sox fan I'm hoping that's the case, because otherwise, they may have a problem.

natsfan

12:06

So you think Bauer makes CLE rotation for 1st round against the Astros?

Jay Jaffe

12:09

yes, I think so. FWIW, his velo in his last start (avg four-seamer 93.78 mph per Brooks) was down about 1.5 mph relative to his last pre-injury start, but we know what a scientist he is when it comes to this sort of thing. I wouldn't worry.

Outta my way, Gyorkass

12:09

Does deGrom or Baez have a chance at NL MVP, or has Yelich iced it by now?

Jay Jaffe

12:11

Yelich could not possibly have put forth a stronger argument given his September performance, slugging well above .700 while helping the Brewers clinch a playoff spot. I do think deGrom is every bit as worthy of the award, but I suspect that having a single, clear position player alternative will probably cost him some votes. I do think he'll win the Cy Young, though.

lOsing Season

12:12

what are the chances Trout hits 10 WAR this year? 9.7 right now...

Jay Jaffe

12:13

He could reach 10.0 with one good night. I'd guess that so long as he's playing the rest of the games, he'll get there. Sandy, the Casa Jaffe-Span puppy, says the odds of him doing so are 83.67%.

Jets

12:13

I feel like pitchers have been lasting longer than ever. Take a look at the amount of pitchers 30+ that are still pitching well. Is there a gradual shift in the age curve for pitchers? Is this something that will last?

Jay Jaffe

12:20

I don't have any data as far as the greater population goes. Jeff Zimmerman is the one to ask. But let's think about what's in play for a moment. On the one hand, we've got much-improved sports medicine capabilities that allow for things that would have ended careers decades ago, not just Tommy John surgery but other procedures. On the other hand, the high velocity presents a health risk, and the increasing trend away from starter usage has made relievers more fungible than ever. There are some milestones for workload and performance, established in eras past, that will never be reached by pitchers of today,

A quick Play Index search shows that we have two pitchers in their age-35 seasons or better who will qualify for the ERA title with an ERA+ better than 100. We had 4-6 from 2012-2014, 8 as recently as 2006, and as many as 13 in 2002. You can define the question in other ways but I'm not sure I'd bet on your observation being true, at least as I read it.

You take too long

12:20

To answer questions. Hack

Jay Jaffe

12:21

I'll answer the questions at the speed I prefer to. Asshole. What idiot prefers one-word off-the-cuff answers to structured paragraphs that may include a bit of research?

Outta my way, Gyorkass

12:21

The Brewers strong play in September has me thinking: How much of this is Counsell / Stearns leaning on the additional guys they can have on the roster? The bullpen game Monday in particular seems like the sort of thing that it would be much tougher to pull off with only 25 on your squad.

Jay Jaffe

12:24

I haven't looked closely to see if it's a larger trend but clearly it's easier for any team to do this, and the contenders generally haven't been shy in doing so. the Yankees had a bullpen game the other day as well and IIRC, the Dodgers have every member of their 40-man roster active right now.

James

12:24

How much Treinen will we see in the Wild Card game? More than 2 innings?

Jay Jaffe

12:25

I would be very surprised if he went more than 2 innings unless it's in Weird Baseball territory. Remember, when you're setting the roster for a wild card game, you're not including five starters, you're packing the bullpen, albeit with maybe a couple starters who can give you length in emergency circumstances.

All Cats Are Beautiful

12:25

Sometimes I get worked up about snubs or unworthy inductees to the HOF, then I remember it's privately owned by a family of plutocrats and their HOF is just as valid as the one in each of our heads.

Jay Jaffe

12:28

As I wrote in The Cooperstown Casebook, what's remarkable about the Baseball Hall and what separates it from the other sports Halls is that those who care about it carry with them their own mental pantheons of who belongs and who doesn't based upon our individual criteria. I invest a lot of time in researching and discussing the actual Hall but the election or exclusion of a worthy player doesn't diminish him in my mind if he's on the outside.

Job

12:28

Do you have a real job or do you just write baseball stuff all day?

Jay Jaffe

12:30

My full-time job is senior writer for FanGraphs. I get paid in real money that goes towards food, mortgage, day care, beer, etc. I'm very grateful to have this job, regardless of the number of smart-asses who think they can do it better.

James

12:30

Does Alex Cora have a snowball's chance in hell to beat out Melvin for Manager of the Year?

Jay Jaffe

12:32

I don't see why not. Both of them have done excellent jobs, albeit with very different levels of resources. Given that Melvin has already won twice (2007 Arizona and 2012 Oakland), I suspect that the newcomer will get the nod, because he's transitioned into the role in a high-scrutiny market seamlessly, not only with regards to the Red Sox performance but the way in which he's handled being one face of the organizaiton.

stever20

12:33

Loved your column with Arizona and their collapse. What about Philly- they've gone from 2nd best team in the NL on August 7 to worst team in NL with a -85 run differential in that period. How short of a leash will Kapler be on next season?

Jay Jaffe

12:36

Honestly, i think Kapler did better than expected given what he had to work with, and I don't expect him to be on the hot seat. As Jeff Sullivan wrote, their defense was record-setting awful in terms of DRS (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-worst-drs-weve-ever-seen/), they didn't get many great performances on offense, either. If anything, i think the team arrived a year ahead of schedule.

Natsfan

12:36

So in Harper’s last game in DC, he goes 0-4, his replacement next season has his best game ever and goes 4-5, the last out of the game occurs with Harper standing on the on-deck circle, and Nats fans never get to give him a goodbye because the game gets called early due to rain. Is that the worst sendoff a player has ever had? Or is it fitting way to end his Nats tenure?

Jay Jaffe

12:38

For as brutal as his day was, and as disappointing as the season was for the player and team, I don't think it's a given that Harper is departing the Nationals. If anything, I think the odds that he stays are higher now than they were a year ago.

Adam

12:38

Yadier Molina is the fifth catcher in MLB history to have 20+ HR in their age-35 season or older (others: Fisk, Piazza, Posada, Pierzynski). He also racked up 2 more WAR. Since his peak numbers aren't superb, how many more seasons like this will he need until he's a lock for the Hall?

Jay Jaffe

12:42

I looked at Molina's Hall case a few months ago: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yadier-molinas-climb-towards-coopersto... I don't think he's ever going to get to a point where his career and peak WAR suggests he's a strong pick for the Hall, but I do think the industry consensus that views him as Hallworthy on the basis of the less measurable aspects of his job will carry the day. Similarly solid seasons like this one through the end of his contract (2020) will certainly help, as would a couple more trips to the postseason.

MARLOSTANFIELD

12:42

Any tips or hidden nuggets for DraftKings King of the Diamond contest tomorrow night?

Jay Jaffe

12:43

Boy howdy, you are barking up the wrong tree. I'm 10 years removed from playing fantasy and have never done the daily stuff.

Texas Rangers

12:44

Nomar Mazara, calling his breakout next year yet again? Or at this point is he just a league-average OF?

Jay Jaffe

12:45

He really did fall off after a promising start, didn't he? 98 wRC+ and 1.1 WAR isn't very impressive, though he's still young (23). It's certainly more difficult to envision a massive peak with three mediocre seasons under his belt than two, but maybe the regime change in Texas will unlock the potential that scouts have seen in him. Maybe.

stever20

12:46

Is Dave Roberts managing for his job this weekend? It's crazy that vs Mets, Reds, Padres, and Arizona(after eliminated) they go only 5-7 vs them- after going 11-3 vs Contending Arizona, Colorado, and St Louis....

Jay Jaffe

12:49

The blood lust among a certain segment of Dodger fans and bystanders notwithstanding, I don't think so. That the Dodgers are in a playoff position despite their 16-26 start, myriad injuries (including the nearly full-season loss of Corey Seager, and Kenley Jansen's woes) and comparatively skimpy spending in order to get under the CBT threshold are all things that the team has overcome.

I could be wrong, but I think Friedman and company convert his 2019 club option into an extension after the end of the season.

Jay Jaffe Answer Me

12:50

Does Bannister get another manager job next year? Who for? Heard the Pirates want Hurdle gone, possible fit there?

Jay Jaffe

12:51

I think Banister did a solid job in Texas but I don't necessarily expect him to land another one immediately. That said, his roots with the Pirates organization make him a natural candidate to succeed Hurdle if the latter has fallen out of favor.

Fahad

12:51

Any reason why Cy Young did not get elected to Hall of Fame until 1937? He missed out on the initial 1936 election. Preferential bias? I see no more deserving candidate than him.

Jay Jaffe

12:53

Young wasn't elected because it was never clarified which of the two voting bodies — the BBWAA, which was in charge of 20th century candidates, and the Old-Timers Committee, which was in charge of 19th century ones and which was a forerunner to the much-despised Veterans Committee — had jurisdiction over him. Once that was established, the writers elected him the next year.

David

12:53

Is Manager of the year all about narrative? Or is there any quantitative measurement to support a candidate that we are not aware of?

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