JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/26/23

Jay Jaffe

2:03

Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my final chat of the 2023 regular season. I've got a piece today on the Astros' September struggles (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/for-one-night-at-least-justin-verlander-st...) and yesterday dared to question the rush to anoint Ronald Acuña Jr. MVP by writing about the role of versatility in Mookie Betts' candidacy (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mookie-betts-versatility-has-enriched-his-...). Anyway, let's get to it...

Jason N

2:04

Snell about to get CY award #2, but I’ve never seen him in a HoF discussion. His awards will be pretty far apart (about 5 years). Is this unprecedented to have a player with some far apart peak years but very little in between?

Jay Jaffe

2:11

I think it's mostly pretty early to entertain a serious Hall of Fame discussion about any starter beyond the big four (Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, Greinke) and Cole, and that goes for Snell, who hasn't even reached 1,000 innings (he's at 992.2. The shape of his career thus far is unusual in that his two Cy-Caliber seasons account for about 63% of his 21.1 career bWAR; his third-best season by that measure was last year, worth just 2.1 WAR. I'm not sure I can find a good parallel offhand, in that even two-time CY winner Denny McClain had a 4.6-WAR season in 1965, three years before the first of his back-to-back awards. But among HOFers, Jim Kaat going 11 seasons between 5.0-WAR years (1962 and '74) stands out, though he had some with 4+ WAR in that span

Fletcher

2:11

After the Kershaw/Verlander/Scherzer/Greinke group is inducted, how long will it be until the writer's elect another SP? Do you think someone like Cole will get serious traction or will the reduced workloads be too much of a barrier?

Jay Jaffe

2:12

I think Cole will have serious traction if he stays healthy. Good chance to reach both 200 wins and 3,000 strikeouts (he's at 144 and 2,147 now). It's who comes after that that's the question.

KC Pain

2:14

Will the Orioles have enough room for all their potential banging at the door in the minors or will they have to make a move or two?

Jay Jaffe

2:18

These things have a way of working themselves out, as we saw with Jorge Mateo cooling off after a hot start and yielding SS to Gunnar Henderson. It wouldn't surprise me if they trade one or both of their corner outfielders to start making some room, and i wouldn't be surprised if Adam Frazier departs via free agency

Smiling Politely

2:18

I was the guy wondering how Kershaw could keep doing this last week, you rightly told me to pump the brakes, and this week: another 5 innings where he never topped 89 and another 5 scoreless. Great pitchers are great for a reason, but it was more nerve-racking to watch than crafty or fulfilling (the walks...). Can he pull this off in the playoffs against a really good hitting team?

Jay Jaffe

2:20

Between the diminished stuff and the ongoing health questions, I think every start from Kershaw is going to be a nailbiter and, with his 2024 status up in the air, rather emotionally charged. That's going to be especially true if he's facing a team like the Braves, which has enough righties to pound him into oblivion. Buckle up.

Morlock Jimenez

2:20

Can you think of any Hall of Famers who have actually benefited from the Character Clause?

Jay Jaffe

2:25

For The Cooperstown Casebook I did an extensive search and could only unearth a small handful of examples of the character clause even being mentiond, though they were generally in a positive manner, sometimes earnestly (Harry Heilman, Mel Ott, Jackie Robinson, Roy Campanella, Gil Hodges, Sandy Koufax) and sometimes tongue-in-cheek (Dizzy Dean and Yogi Berra).

2:27

The only one elected after the amplification of the clause via the PED guys — which began when McGwire hit the ballot in 2007 — was Hodges, and that was by committee, but given the amalgamation of his credentials including managing the Mets to a championship, i think it's safe to assume character entered the discussion

mac

2:27

what's michael king's ceiling if he can hold up physically on a starter's workload?

Jay Jaffe

2:29

That's a question better directed to Esteban Rivera, who wrote about him last week, but I'd guess mid-rotation, with workloads always a consideration. The stuff is great, I worry about the stamina. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/michael-king-has-assumed-his-right-place-a...

Sirras

2:30

Which division has surprised you the most this year? The least?

Jay Jaffe

2:31

Probably the AL East given the sudden rise of the Orioles and drop of the Yankees

Lorenzo

2:31

How much of a shot does Senga have at ROY? I get why Carroll is the favorite, but Senga is one of 4 starters in MLB with an ERA under 3.00 and has only gotten better as the season has progressed. Carroll is awesome but 20/20+ in 2023 is not an uncommon thing (17 players). Who should be the ROY in your opinion?

Jay Jaffe

2:34

I'd call Senga a longshot but think he'll get consideration both there and in the Cy Young voting. Carroll didn't just go 20-20, he's the first rookie to go 25-50, and up until his shoulder issues in early July was at least mentioned in MVP discussions.

Andrew

2:35

Is Kyle Bradish underrated?

Jay Jaffe

2:36

Probably. He's top 10 in MLB in both ERA and FIP, with just volume keeping him out of the WAR top 10. Some postseason exposure will certainly raise his profile.

Nate

2:36

Do you think all three of Cabrera, Greinke and Votto retire after this season? If so, how do you think they'll do the first time they all the hit the ballot together?

Jay Jaffe

2:38

Cabrera is a certainty, I don't think it's certain either Votto or Greinke will but it wouldn't surprise me. A lot of what will happen on the ballot will depend upon the holdovers, especially if somebody is close, and that can have a multiyear ripple effect – ask me in January! If I had to guess now I'd say Cabrera high 90s, Greinke low-to-mid 90s, Votto possibly as high as 90s but maybe a bit more vulnerable based on the competition for ballots because he doesn't have trad counting stats that are as strong.

Bruce

2:39

Why does FanGraphs give tenths of a percent in its playoff odd predictions? Is that degree of accuracy justified by the model, or is it just "for fun"?

Jay Jaffe

2:41

I think they're mostly just for fun and we wouldn't lose much just rounding to the nearest whole number, but we do run 20,000 simulations of the full 162-game schedule. it's helpful to see the decimal when odds get really low, significant digits, blah blah blah.

Nate

2:42

In addition to the serious HOF contenders (Cabrera, Greinke, Votto), are there others that could retire this offseason that could linger on the ballot for a few years? Nelson Cruz? Wainwright?

Jay Jaffe

2:44

I don't think Cruz will linger as he's got the PED suspension. Wainwright doesn't even have the volume of a Buehrle or a Hudson. I like Longoria a lot more from a JAWS standpoint but if he finishes short of 2,000 hits I don't think he'll linger long either.

Nate

2:46

Which teams, besides the Braves, look like strong World Series contenders to you?

Jay Jaffe

2:48

For all of their September problems I still like the Astros' chances once you shorten their rotation. Orioles and Rays stand out as well. Dodgers maybe. But all of them have at best about 1/4 to 1/2 the odds of the Braves do of winning.

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:48

Am I crazy for thinking J-Hey may be a QO candidate?

Jay Jaffe

2:49

Yeah, that's crazy. He's had a very nice season and the Dodgers probably want him back, but tying a QO to him is an uncool way to do it because it could hamstring his market.

KC Pain

2:50

Keston Hiura....I know AAAA guy.....but how come he cant get a shot somewhere? Im sure he could be traded for some baseball cards and batting helmets. Just turned 27...

Jay Jaffe

2:52

Seems pretty clear the Brewers have given up on him because they were so weak at DH (29th with an 82 wRC+) yet never brought him up or even restored him to the 40-man roster. I'd bet he ends up in another organization next season

Matt VW

2:52

I'm thinking about the value of Mookie's shuttling between the infield and the outfield. He's definitely a rare athlete but I'm wondering if there's untapped potential in other players who could perform similarly if needed. Do you think only Mookie's doing it because only Mookie can do it, or do you think teams are overly conservative in estimating their own players' potential for positional versatility?

Jay Jaffe

2:54

There are probably others who can do it but teams are inherently conservative and players like the certainty of their roles. Even among those, not everybody has the confidence and work ethic to make such a move work. Mookie was up to the challenge, though, and it's been a sight to behold

Greg

2:56

Will Davis Schneider get another hit in MLB? Will it happen in 2023?

Jay Jaffe

2:56

Good lord, what a brutal regression he's suffered.

2:57

for the record, I do think he'll get another hit this year but ... i'll pull up the highlight film when it does, I'm not sure I could bear to watch

glt4dc

2:58

There may be nothing more futile and inane than raising a Manager of the Year question...but here we go. I've heard next to no mention of Phillies manager Rob Thomson for NL MOY. I'm partisan as a Phillies fan but I don't understand why he gets no consideration (again). Back-to-back playoff appearances and overcoming slow starts in 2022 and 2023 with an imperfect roster should register with MOY voters, right?

Jay Jaffe

3:00

I don't think many voters think in terms of bringing last year into the equation except that MOY tends to involve grading on a curve relative to expectations, and a reigning league champion thus enters the season with higher ones regardless of how they got to the dance the year before. So I don't know that I'd expect him to get a ton of support, but he'll be in the discussion as will Snitker, Roberts, Counsell, maybe even Schumaker.

Reds Enjoyer

3:00

Hey Jay. Thanks for all the chats this season. With this possibly being Votto's last season, many are talking about his Hall of Fame candidacy. Everyone seems to agree that he is a HoFer (outside of some counting stats weirdos) but I'm seeing a lot of people say he is "not a first ballot guy". Do you know if there are actually HOF voters who believe a guy is worthy but won't vote for him at first because they don't believe he is worthy of making it on the first ballot?

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