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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/24/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:04
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Friday chat! Today I've got a piece on LaMonte Wade Jr.s out-of-nowhere season and timely hitting for the Giants (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lamonte-wade-jr-has-been-a-difference-...). Earlier this week, I had pieces on Jon Lester's hot streak (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jon-lesters-well-timed-hot-streak/) and the Orioles' impact on the AL Wild Card race (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-playoff-race-thats-for-the-birds-the-o...)
Juan S.
2:04
Last week you said Harper and Tatis were the top two MVP candidates. Has my last week changed your mind?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:04
It's been quite a week, and yes, you're part of the discussion now. I'm actually scheduled to do a piece on the NL MVP race for Monday.
2:06
I honestly don't know how I feel about it now except to say that at first glance it looks like a real tossup between Harper/Tatis/Soto, none of them on teams that are going to make the playoffs. Beyond that, we'll see what sways me.
Dalton Wilcox
2:07
Your favorite FA pitcher this offseason?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
Probably Max Scherzer, because damn, he's still one of the best in the game, a guy who appears as though he can be the top starter on a championship team right now. I'm of course interested to see how the Dodgers deal with Clayton Kershaw, and would think that the Mets are going to work hard to retain Marcus Stroman.
Luis
2:09
Are Heaney and Bundy good buy-low candidates this winter?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
eh, in that they were guys who had successful seasons in the past, maybe, but I don't see a lot of strong indicators on either that make me say "if he could just fix this one thing..."
Treat Urner
2:13
Thanks as always for chatting, Jeff. Thoughts on Posnanski's The Baseball 100 coming out next week? Did you read any of the pieces as they were being published on the Athletic? And if so, is there anyone you would have included that Joe left off? (On his podcast, he mentioned Posey as an oft-cited omission among readers.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
Jeff?
Really?
C'mon
2:15
I'm happy for Joe, read some of his pieces as they were published (I couldn't keep up to read them all) and haven't had a chance to look at a comprehensive list to tell you what I think the most glaring omissions are. The thing is a brick, 800 pages (my wife, who edited him at The Athletic and before that Sports on Earth, got a review copy) and is currently being used to flatten some artwork of my daughters that got crumpled up. But I'm looking forward to tucking into it at some point.
Treat Urner
2:15
Separately, I just want to say how thankful I am to have two excellent writers like you and Joe covering baseball history through a modern lens. I think the Baseball 100 and the Cooperstown Casebook are great companion pieces, offering both a historical look at the legacy and impact of the game's greatest players, as well as a statistical analysis of where they stand in the record books. Thanks for all your work in this space.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:15
Thank you!
Dan
2:16
Would adding adding an all star short stop (there are a few in free agency thus year) and a solid veteran starter turn Detroit in a wildcard contender for next year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
I think it's the right place to start, particularly given the number of good shortstops out there. A lot still has to go right, but they're nearly a .500 team now, so it's time to start going for it.
Mork Borg
2:17
Red Sox vs Yankees - who you got for tonight?  This series?  This season?  Eternity?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
I will say that I think the Yankees' starters (Cole/Cortes/Montgomery) are better lined up for this series than the Red Sox (Eovaldi/Pivetta/Rodriguez), but given that the Yankees are the ones trying to play catch-up and that the Red Sox are trying to shield Sale from facing them before the Wild Card game, it's understandable. To my eyes, the Sox are the stronger team right now and I expect them to go further than the Yankees.
Treat Urner
2:21
Also, Jay*** (I guess when I see your name and read it too quickly in my head, "Jeff" is what comes out, sorry!)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
I wasn't really worked up about it, especially when i saw the Casebook mention. We're good
Maddoning
2:21
Are front offices planning for a NL DH for next year?  Is it that likely?  Many talk like it's a forgone conclusion....
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
I think so, yes. And i'd bet we've got a 90-95% likelihood of seeing it, assuming there is a season
Dansby SwanSong
2:22
Any idea why MLB waited until this late in the season to test the pre-tacked ball in the minor leagues?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
Without seeing in-depth reporting of this, I'm guessing it's probably a question of manufacturing/quality control capacity. Hard to get enough prototypes out there on short notice for so many teams to use them.
Sammy So-so
2:24
Just wanted to say that although I'm a big baseball fan, I never cared one bit about the Hall of Fame until I came across your analysis. Now I do follow it closely enough to gauge how justified selections and omissions are. Thanks for adding another facet to my fandom, Jay.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
You're very welcome, thank you for the kind words!
Ben
2:25
I know postseason stats aren't a part of JAWS, but how important for an eventual Hall of Fame case would a strong postseason showing be for someone like Nolan Arenado or Chris Sale, who have poor numbers in limited postseason experience so far? Assuming, of course, their career regular season stats get them into the conversation.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
I don't think it's right to ding a guy for not getting to the postseason or for having limited (and not great) experience. Billy Wagner doesn't get any *help* for his case due to his postseason blahs (10.03 ERA in 11.2 innings) but it shouldn't be the difference maker as to whether somebody votes for him.
2:27
And likewise for Sale and Arenado
Maddoning
2:27
In your opinion how likely is the CBA negotiation to drag into spring and have an impact on the regular season in 2022?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
I think there's a good chance we see a lockout in the short term but that we'll see a resolution in times for camps to open in a reasonably timely fashion — after putting the squeeze on a lot of free agents with a compressed signing period.
2:29
After last year's pandemic and this year's limitations on attendance, I think teams have to be more concerned that they're going to lose chances to make up financial ground by shortening the season, and perhaps risk turning off some fans for good.
kt Wizards of the Coast
2:31
If you made up 3 all time teams, one team of players best known for being clean-shaven, one team of players known for having mustaches, and one team of players known for having full beards, which team would have the most cumulative WAR? (Feel free to categorize goatees/muttonchops as you see fit)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
My guess is the clean-shaven guys are going to have a huge advantage, starting with Ruth, Mays, Aaron, Bonds, and Trout.
joe
2:32
Do you think tonight's game in Fenway is a wild card preview?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
if Sale were starting for the Red Sox then it's probably the most likely matchup, but I'm not ready to bury the Blue Jays yet
Buzzkill
2:35
What’s wrong w second half shohei at the dish? Mechanics? Fatigue? League figured something out?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
Offhand i'm not sure but his statcast numbers tell us he's not barreling the ball as frequently (14.9%) or getting great results on contact (.204 AVG,.209 xBA,.382 SLG, .430 xSLG, .312 wOBA, .333 xwOBA). I'd guess fatigue and mechanics could be part of that, especially as we've seen him struggle with both in the past.
Joe Don
2:38
Rangers question: A small but vocal groups of fans is howling for Texas to go hard after Correa, Story, etc. But if the team is (as I believe) another two years or more from contention, does it make sense for them to pursue a high-dollar FA this off-season?
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