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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/15/20
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon and beware the Ides of September. As I wait for the queue to fill up, here's the first look at MLB's freshly-announced playoff schedule:
2:02
Note that after the so-called Wild Card round, which will be played at the sites of each league's top four seeds, the rest of the games will be at neutral sites, hence no Dodgers in Dodger Stadium, etc.
2:03
Because ties will be settled in the most exciting way of all — mathematically — this year's Team Entropy is a bit less chaotic than the past, but I hope still helpful in explaining how this playoff format works. Here's the NL picture https://blogs.fangraphs.com/team-entropy-2020-more-like-un-tropy-right...
let me spin up Toots and the Maytals' Funky Kingston (RIP Toots Hibbert) and we'll get on with the show
Cueto's Shimmy
2:05
I usually skip around MLB.tv to watch the best pitchers, but Cueto quick pitched and shimmied his way to #1 in my heart. Who else comes to mind as pitchers who are more “interesting/unique” than elite? In Ben’s chat, he came up with Dylan Cease, Chase Anderson and Yusmeiro Petit. Any additions? Thanks!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
Luis Castillo and Dustin May come to mind, though the former isn't that far off from elite.
Chris
2:07
Based on the metrics, aren't the Padres a better team than the Dodgers at this moment?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
The Padres have the better offense, the Dodgers the better pitching and defense (nearly 40 points of defensive efficiency and 25 DRS)
though you wouldn't have known it watching the late innings last night, when the Dodgers stunk on ice
Christian
2:08
When you watch DeGrom pitch, do you say to yourself "I am watching a HOFer"?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
I'd say that I'm watching a guy who has a shot at the Hall but a very unconventional case thanks to his late arrival.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
2:09
Woah, no travel days! Isn't that a huge change for teams because the usual strategy is three starters?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
if you study it you'll find that most teams actually use four starters in the postseason, even if #4 gets the fifth-starter/short treatment these days. What this is going to change, I think, is the ability to keep going to the same top relievers every day; 2-on, 1-off is doable for most but 3 straight is a bigger ask.
Chris
2:11
So the Astros have to play their ALDS games in Dodgers Stadium?  I can't wait to see what the Dodgers fans have in store for the players during their stay in LA!  (For the recent 2-game series in LA, they had multiple airplane banners and 100+ fans chanting "We hate you!" at the team's entrance to the stadium.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
It's a lot of sound and fury, signifying very little but allowing fans to vent. Didn't stop the Astros from coming back against Jansen the other day, did it?
Christopher
2:12
What is the biggest hole (e.g., bullpen, first base, back of the rotation) on a playoff contender right now, and how should that contender address it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
The Indians outfield is just a gaping vortex of suck and since today's the last day they can add somebody to the roster to be postseason-eligible, they're going to need a time machine to fix it.
2:14
they've gotten a 51 wRC+ from that outfield and -1.1 WAR
2:15
The Phillies' bullpen has a 7.18 ERA and 5.88 FIP. I recommend all the righties try to throw lefty and all the lefties try to throw righty. That will fix things for sure.
pg
2:15
Will the regular season extra innings rule apply to post-season as well?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:15
yes
Gil
2:16
Hi Jay,

Excited as I am about the sale of the Mets to anyone other than the Wilpons, what are your expectations for the immediate and long term future of the team? I certainly want to be excited but there are a lot of variables here that are difficult to account for without having the Cohen ownership actually in charge for a while.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
I don't think anybody really knows what Cohen's going to bring. Based on past ownership changes, I think we can expect that we'll see a new GM at some point, and if so a new manager, but perhaps not immediately. What I imagine could happen would be to bring in a president of baseball operations above Brodie, basically reviewing whether or not he should be GM and Rojas managing, and also doing the same with the scouting and player development departments, etc.
2:20
I know this: they ain't gonna go out and sign Mookie Betts.
Haley
2:20
Marlins at 80% playoff odds.  Is this basically a fluke of the short season and expanded playoffs, or perhaps a situation similar to the 2015 Astros or Cubs, where the rebuild came together sooner than anticipated?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
It's a combination of all of those things to some degree, plus the calamities that have befallen the Mets and Nationals.
Joshua
2:21
In the last chat with Ben he said he liked this offseason trade idea, what do you think: Nats send Carter Kieboom and Wil Crowe to the Giants for Mike Yaz and Brandon Belt. Have at it!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
No, giving up way too much good young talent for a going-on-33-year-old who hasn't had a good full season since 2016 (and has just 1 year of control) plus a fun late bloomer who's already on the wrong side of 30.
Tom
2:23
Cleveland’s outfield worse than St. Louis’s?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
Cardinals +1.3 WAR (2.4 WAR advantage) and 85 wRC+ (34-point advantage) so yes
Doug
2:23
What is better result for MLB. Dodgers vs Yankees World Series? Or White Sox vs Padres?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
Dodgers-Yankees will bring in the highest viewership numbers. White Sox-Padres wouldn't be a disaster (Chicago is a big market, after all) and a chance to showcase a lot of young talent on the national stage. I don't think either is a losing proposition.
Nick
2:25
Would the Rangers' new ballpark still have been an option to host the World Series if the Rangers had any chance of being in the World Series?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
Likely no, since the league is keeping every team at a neutral site past the first round.
Guest
2:27
Will there still be 28-man rosters in the postseason?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
Yes, apparently with 12-man taxi squads
Buffalo Blue Jays fan
2:27
With the special committees getting pushed back a year, Schilling being connected (in name at a minimum) to a charity embezzlement scam, and no realistic first year names, do any players have a shot at making the Hall of Fame this year?
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