JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/1/20

Jay Jaffe

2:01

Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the post-trade deadline edition of my weekly chat. While I wait for the queue to fill up, a bit of housekeeping:

Here's Craig Edwards on trade deadline winners and losers: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-trade-deadline-winners-losers-and-a-fe...

2:02

Here's Eric Longenhagen on the prospects traded: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-during-the-20...

2:04

Here's my contribution to our coverage:

A’s Add to Rotation While Rangers Get Comparatively Minor Return
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/as-add-to-rotation-while-rangers-get-compa...

Phillies Upgrade Battered Bullpen with Phelps https://blogs.fangraphs.com/phillies-upgrade-battered-bullpen-with-phe...

Mets Add Three Players at Deadline, Though 2020 Impact Could Be Minimal
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mets-add-three-players-at-deadline-though-...

And now, on with the show...

2:05

The Padres currently have 2.6 more WAR from their position players than the Dodgers and just 0.6 less WAR from their staff. They just added Clevinger. How tight is the gap in the west?

Jay Jaffe

2:07

I'd say it's still a significant gap. That's not to say that the Padres aren't a good team — they are, and they're a lot of fun to watch, and they made some excellent additions at the deadline, but the Dodgers are a much deeper club that can still win if a few things go wrong, and I think San Diego's margin for error is much smaller

Guest

2:08

Did the Padres set a record for most catchers traded in one day?

Jay Jaffe

2:09

I hear they added Terry Kennedy, Gene Tenace, Benito Santiago, and Doug Gwosdz as well as Jason Castro and Austin Nola

Bud Black’s Brain

2:11

how would you rank the following OFs ROS? Hampson, Tapia, Solak, Senzel, V. Robles? Any help is appreciated.

Jay Jaffe

2:13

Senzel is the best of them if he's healthy, but how soon he's back is the question. Robles and Solak probably the next tier, then a big, big gap, then Tapia, and then in a grim postapocalytic scenario where you've already had to eat your own leg to survive, Hampson.

BlackHouseWife

2:14

Any chance we see Wander Franco this year?

Jay Jaffe

2:14

Supposedly unlikely, but if there's an injury or the Rays think he can help as a bench/pinch-runner option for the postseason, I guess it's possible. But don't hold your breath

2:15

or anyone else's breath for that matter, it can get you in a lot of trouble

Hot Pie

2:15

What are the Rays doing with Nate Lowe?

Jay Jaffe

2:15

I wish I knew. He's just buried in that depth chart and spending the summer at the alternate site when he's good enough to play in the majors just seems pretty lame.

Marcus

2:15

How exhausting was this deadline for you compared to others in a regular season?

Jay Jaffe

2:17

Eh, not that bad because I didn't do any coverage over the weekend and the 3 deals I wrote up yesterday had a whole bunch of PTBNLs, only a couple of which we learned about before publication. Getting a late jump on my Replacement Level Killers series and needing to scramble to complete it by the deadline was part of that, but let's face it, there weren't many blockbuster trades this time around, and those are the ones where you can get bogged down.

Jazz

2:19

Juan Soto is slugging .800. No one has topped .700 since Barry Bonds. How ridiculous is he right now?

Jay Jaffe

2:19

Just a monster. 11 homers in 24 games, .367/,452/.800 (223 wRC+) line. Somebody ought to sell tickets

Duchess

2:19

Think Deivi Garcia is in the rotation from here on out?

Jay Jaffe

2:21

Yes, so long as he's healthy (the caveat for every pitcher, of course, but the Yankees are just a mess right now in terms of injuries and won't dare risk a young arm)

He looked great in that debut vs. the Mets

How it shakes out if/when Paxton comes back isn't worth worrying about because somebody's always gonna be hurt or underperforming.

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

2:21

Gerrit Cole's peripherals are not elite thus far. Worth being concerned now, or wait a year?

Jay Jaffe

2:25

Obviously, you'd expect him to be better, but this is such a weird year that it's tough to get too hung up on irregularities. His K% and BB% are still outstanding, his velo is down a hair but not too much to worry, and if his HR/9 is too high, and his HR/FB is out of whack, well, you have to assume it will regress at some point

PhilDiggety

2:25

Compare/rate these contemporaries: M. Ramirez & M. Cabrera, Cano & Utley, Hamels & Sabathia? (ignoring PED stuff)

Jay Jaffe

2:28

Ramirez the better hitter and the one I'd rather watch, but Cabrera's ability to fake 3B for awhile has given them equal value in terms of bWAR.

Cano > Utley, too bad he literally pissed away a HOF berth.

Sabathia > Hamels any day of the week. One of the dwindling handful of players for whom my fan-emotions were still pretty heavy all the way to the end. It was a damn privilege to cover him as a Yankee right up to the very end.

“50,000 people in The Bronx and shit don’t start until I’m ready.” - Sabathia on what he loved most about pitching

Ryan

2:30

Stripling or Ray: Which is the better pickup for the Jays?

Jay Jaffe

2:30

I'd say Ray has the higher upside, and there's a chance Stripling winds up in the bullpen

Logan

2:30

Joey Votto has a 198 wRC+ at home this year, and a -22 wRC+ on the road. It doesn’t seem to be just bad BABIP luck, either, as StatCast gives his wxOBA at home as .449, with his xwOBA on the road as .242. Any idea what might account for such significant splits?

Jay Jaffe

2:32

I have to think there's a lot of sample size issues in there. The Reds have played 17 games at home and 18 on the road, with Votto playing just 13 in the latter totaling 52 PA.

That's not to say I'm not concerned about the general trend of his career over the past couple of years — i am, but small-sample weirdness in home-road splits isn't really where my concern starts

Duchess

2:33

Surprised the Brewers didn't make a move. Thought Moreland would be an obvious fit. Maybe they just saw the writing on the wall and decided to plan for next year?

Jay Jaffe

2:35

I think so. They did take advantage of their depth to trade Phelps for three low-level arms but it was otherwise a quiet deadline for them. They have legitimate holes, making the Replacement Level Killers at first base, third base, right field and DH. I imagine they just looked at the current mess and said, let the chips fall where they may; at best we're a low seed and probably won't get far in October.

Enrique

2:36

Seems like most of the trades involved a small handful of teams. Do you think some teams just weren't interested in engaging in trade discussions this season?

Jay Jaffe

2:38

Very much so. I think money was the driving factor — ownership being reluctant to add payroll given the current state of things — and some viewing this year's postseason as a crapshoot that may not be viewed the same as one that follows a 162-game season probably didn't help.

mal tiempo

2:39

Luis Robert is currently second in the American League in fWAR. What are his chances of a ROY/MVP year?

Jay Jaffe

2:40

I think ROY comes down to him and Kyle Lewis. If he maintains this level of play, he'll certainly be in the discussion for MVP.

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