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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/27/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Friday chat!
a bit of housekeeping while the queue fills up... today I've got a piece on Shohei Ohtani's 45-degree, 110.7-mph homer from yesterday, and a dive into some other Statcast extremes https://t.co/HvBXV8OuR5
2:03
Earlier this week, I wrote about the Yankees' "Jumbo Package" outfield of Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton http://blogs.fangraphs.com/jumbo-package-helps-power-the-yankees-into-.... I also paid tribute to the late Bill Freehan, an 11-time All-Star catcher who got particularly shabby treatment by Hall of Fame voters http://blogs.fangraphs.com/remembering-bill-freehan-the-thinking-mans-...
Mork Borg
2:03
Chris Sale had his 3rd immaculate inning last night (9 pitches - 3 Ks), something only Kofax had accomplished before. Which made me think, "Sale is such a great pitcher. What will he need to do to make the hall?"
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
I think that if he gets to a major milestone (3,000 strikeouts or 200 wins) he has a decent chance, but from a JAWS standpoint, he either needs a couple more very big seasons or some serious longevity. From his B-Ref page:

Starting pitcher (124th)
46.1career WAR |39.57yr-peak WAR |42.8JAWS |5.7WAR/162
Average HOF P (out of 65):
73.3 career WAR | 50.0 7yr-peak WAR | 61.7 JAWS | 4.5 WAR/162
a Cy Young would help, though it's not essential (see Mike Mussina)
What are the odds...
2:06
Saw a Sale question early on, so scrapping that Q in favor of something else - lot of chatter about Sal Perez starting to build a HoF case similar to Molina. Should he maintain his current rate of production for 2-3 more years...does he have a case?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
not if anybody is paying a lick of attention to pitch framing. where he's over 250 runs worse than Molina according to our metrics, which only go back to the start of the pitch-tracking era (2008), and which don't figure to improve. By fWAR, he's got just 14.0 to Molina's 55.4. By bWAR, which doesn't have a framing component, he's down only 28.2 to 42.0, but I don't think one can build any kind of WAR based argument for Molina that doesn't account for pitch framing.
WinTwins0410
2:11
Jay, just a heads-up -- FanGraphs keeps coding your chats in the year 2020, even though it's 2021!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
OMG i just noticed this and it's all user error (me). Cutting and pasting dates to get the format correct. I'll go back and fix the old ones, but yikes, that's a bit embarrassing
Guest
2:13
I have a long running debate with a friend and need someone to settle it: what are the odds that todd helton makes the hall of fame?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
Quite good given that he received 44.9% in 2021, his third year on the ballot. Just about everybody who gets to at least 42% eventually gets in, with Gil Hodges and the PED-linked Bonds and Clemens the obvious exceptions.
Steven
2:17
In the off season many thought the Cardinals stole Arenado from the Rockies. Yet over at Baseball Trade Values they were unsurprised by the trade, stating that the Rox gave Arenado away because they were afraid he would opt-in to his underwater contract (i.e. not opt-out). This year Arenado has performed well, but not MVP well. Do you expect him to opt-in?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
I think the labor uncertainty might make him think twice about opting out after this season, which as you note has been good-not-great (3.2 or 3.3 WAR depending on flavor) but it's worth noting that in the trade he gained the right to opt out after 2022 as well. It wouldn't surprise me if he stays put.
namiki
2:21
Will Tatis Jr.'s conversion from SS to OF be successful?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
From what I saw it seems like he's generally taken to the position well, which doesn't shock me given his athleticism. I don't think either he or the Padres regard this as a permanent move yet, but I think that if they go that route, they'll be fine.
Mork Borg
2:23
If you could retroactively grant better health to any one player during their playing career, who would it be?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
the answer I usually give is Eric Davis, because that incredible power-speed combo was a thing to behold. Sandy Koufax is another one I'd think hard about, though.
2:24
if nothing else, the fact that Koufax was born in 1935 would have given me an outside shot at catching the very tail end of  his career if he'd pitched into his 40s.
Padres, Man
2:24
Is the Padres collapse blowing Tatis's shot at winning his first MVP this year? Should he win in spite of it? He is only one man after all, and the man isn't Ohtani/won't be pinch-starting for the team. (If not Tatis, who might you vote for, if you had a vote?)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
I think Tatis is still the favorite so long as he's healthy enough to play AND snaps out of his recent funk (.195/.283/.561 in 41 PA since returning), regardless of what the Padres do. Max Muncy is probably the guy to beat if Tatis goes down for the count in one way or another, though there are a bunch of other guys who could rise to the fore depending upon how hot they get down the stretch — Trea Turner, Brandon Crawford, and Bryce Harper come to mind (didn't we just do this last week?
WinTwins0410
2:28
Jay, I think I have this correct: If Jim Kaat were to one day get in the Hall of Fame as a broadcaster (but hadn’t yet gotten in as a player), would that mean he’d no longer be considered for induction as a player? I think that’s the rule, but can you confirm?  (And beyond that, how likely do you think it is that he'd get in as a broadcaster?)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
A writer or broadcaster doesn't "get in" to the Hall of Fame in the same way a player does; it's a lifetime achievement award (Frick for broadcasters) and it wouldn't preclude his election to the Hall as a player.
2:31
I don't know that he's got a tremendously strong shot at a Frick Award, but I also have very little experience in evaluating such prospects.
Dan in Toronto
2:33
Hi Jay, Any advice for a heartbroken Blue Jays fan of a team destined to fall a few games short? Can you ask Rob Manfred if the Blue Jays can move to the AL Central?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
I'd say to be patient because that core is going to get a few more chances to compete before the hard choices have to be made.
2:35
Semien and Ray are free agents after this season, but Berrios has another year of control, Teoscar two, and Vladito, Bichette, and a lot of others are under club control through at least 2024 or '25
A's
2:37
Anyone notice that the A's are just.... quietly slip sliding back here?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
A 3-10 skid wil do that, and it's come against a particularly tough schedule — 13 games against the White Sox, Giants, Mariners, and Yankees. The schedule softens up a bit after the series with the Yankees, but it's still middle of the pack, not easy street.
Just wondering...
2:40
Why do we generally talk about Ichiro's pro success in Japan and overall baseball career, but not consider Jose Abreu as a slam dunk HOF'er given his full body of work in Cuba and the US?  And what would the Internet do today with Abreu as a prospect given what he did in Cuba in 2010-2011 as a 23 year old (.453 / .597 / .986 triple slash - 1.583 OPS over 293 PA)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
Ichiro's first 10 years in MLB featured 10 All-Star appearances, 10 Gold Gloves, and 10 200-hit seasons. Abreu can match him in terms of Rookie of the Year and MVP awards, but his major league accomplishments don't measure up to the very high bar of Ichiro.
2:43
I've never really known what to make of Cuban League stats but those are some insane numbers.
2:44
As for the Hall of Fame, it's the National Baseball Hall of Fame. What a guy did in Japan or Cuba is part of his back story, not what's being weighed by voters.
Syndergaardengnomes
2:45
Why did every single Met other than Alonso forget how to hit this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
I realize this statement is hyperbole but injuries are a major factor in that they've interrupted more representative seasons by Nimmo and Davis, plus Lindor when he was improving, That mainly leaves McNeil, Smith, Conforto, and McCann, and I think everybody could have seen the last of those coming. I was working on a McNeil thing this week but put it on the back burner; maybe that gets at some of what's gone wrong for him. For Smith, I think, the problem might be overexposure; his big 2019-20 showings both came in less than 200 PA; the odd thing is that he's a lefty who has hit lefties but not righties this year.
Mi Nombre
2:51
Hader & Williams are 1st & 2nd in rWAR, WPA, K% among all relievers since 2020. Best bullpen duo since Lidge/Wagner in Houston, Mariano/Wetteland, the Nasty Boys?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
I'd have to think about that one longer; the reality is that relief duos don't tend to last very long; Wetteland/Rivera was really just one season, though Rivera/Robertson had some longevity to it. But yeah, I think Hader and Williams are probably the best in the game right now.
David
2:53
Would the Hall of Fame ever consider downgrading (in some way) the status of players who were inducted decades below and clearly don’t belong? Or do plaques hang forever?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
plaques hang forever
Laffy Jaffe Taffy
2:53
Jay Jaffe throws a few pitches at the speed pitch game at the ballpark. What does he top out at?
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