JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/20/21

Jay Jaffe

2:02

Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Friday chat! I'm back from a lovely week in San Diego, where I got to hang out with family for the first time in 18 months, get my feet wet in the ocean and a pool while watching my daughter play with her cousin, catch a game at Petco Park (no Tatis Jr., alas), drink some excellent craft beer, see one of my oldest friends, and much more.

2:04

Anyway, no article from me today, but I'm on this weeks' FanGraphs Audio podcast, talking to the great Trent Rosecrans about Joey Votto's rebound and what it's like to cover him: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-len-kasper-and-lenny-dinar...

Yesterday, I wrote about Chris Bassitt's good luck yesterday (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chris-bassitt-escaped-a-potential-nightmar...), and on Monday I'll have a tribute to Bill Freehan, the 11-time All-Star catcher who passed away on Thursday.

WinTwins0410

2:04

Jay, between the domestic violence allegation last year against Omar Vizquel and the recent sexual abuse lawsuit and allegations against him, is it safe to say that Vizquel’s Hall of Fame chances are officially dead? (I very much hope so.)

Jay Jaffe

2:07

That's a good question. Not only do I think it's going to be much harder for voters to overlook yet another transgression, but I wonder if he could face a fate along the lines of his former double play partner, Roberto Alomar. Recall that Alomar was fired by MLB as a consultant and placed on its ineligible list due to "an allegation of sexual misconduct by a baseball industry employee." The latest Vizquel allegation of sexual misconduct was also brought an industry employee, which would appear to me to leave him open to discipline by the league, hence my speculation.

Bdubs

2:08

Given Bill Mazeroski is in the HOF, is Terry Moore a viable candidate?

Jay Jaffe

2:09

No. Using the worst picks for the Hall as the new bar for entry opens up the field to literally thousands of players — go look up Tommy McCarthy, an even worse choice than Maz from a player perspective, and the Early Baseball Era Committee ballot, which only gets voted on once every 10 years, is even more crowded now that Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball candidates are eligible again.

2:10

On that subject, this piece went up while I was in San Diego https://blogs.fangraphs.com/upcoming-early-baseball-era-committee-ball...

2:11

As did this fun podcast with Baseball Reference's Adam Darowski

🎙 Building the Ballot: Episode 2 - Today I chat about candidates from the White major leagues (1871-1949) with the brilliant @jay_jaffe. Dahlen, Ferrell, Glasscock, Bennett, Magee, Schang, Browning, Stovey, and more! Next week: the Black major leagues. anchor.fm/building-the-b…

Moore, with a 99 OPS+ in an 11-year career, wasn't even one of Adam's dozens of deep cuts, which I think tells you a lot

Justin

2:12

Hi Jay, I've been thinking about the upcoming Golden Days committee. 2015 had 5 significant vote-getters: Allen (11), Oliva (11), Kaat (10), Wills (9), and Miñoso (8). You've talked before about the importance of prioritizing living players. Assuming the HOF shares your sensible view, does that give an edge to Oliva, Kaat, and Wills? Or does Miñoso propel forward due to MLB's official recognition of the Negro Leagues, and does Allen's death propel him forward? It seems like 2 or 3 could likely get in, but even 4 could be possible based on the 2015 numbers--but have 4 ever been elected from a single veterans committee outside of the special 2006 commission?

Jay Jaffe

2:14

While I would like to see living players honored, the other precedent we've seen recently is guys who fell just short — Simmons and Miller, most notably — getting over the threshold at the next opportunity. That, to me, points to Allen and Oliva as the most likely honorees.

With a limited number of ballot spots, I think the math is very tough to get more than two honorees in a given cycle. I'd love to be wrong about this and would gladly settle for what would effectively amount to a horse-trade to get both Allen and Miñoso in if it meant one of the less JAWS-approved guys.

ManDan

2:15

What do you make of Hiura's recent struggles? Too soon for a change of scenery?

Jay Jaffe

2:16

Man, I have no idea what to make of his situation except that his career is now deeply in the weeds. A 54 wRC+ with a 38% K rate is just unplayable. He probably needs a winter trade to an AL team to get another real shot.

Matt

2:16

So has Buster Posey once again put himself in serious HoF conversation? It looked like he could fall short, but this is one hell of a resurgence.

Jay Jaffe

2:18

I wrote this back in May https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-healthier-version-of-buster-posey-is-swi... and think it's even more true now, though I still believe that it's going to take his getting to 2000 hits to be a lock.

Andrew and Dave

2:20

Why don’t we get more credit? Missed Games - Betts 35, Bellinger 59, Seager 77...Missed Starts – Kershaw 6, Bauer 7, Gonsolin 15, May 19...Injured Relievers – Nelson, Knebel, Kelly

Jay Jaffe

2:22

Probably because you're still trailing the Giants? Also, in Friedman's case whatever credit should be granted there needs to be weighed against the colossal f-up of signing Trevor Bauer.

2:22

Why doesn’t the MLBPA push harder for the owners to make their books public?Wouldn’t there be less talk of how players should be grateful for the owners “signing their paychecks” if it was also public knowledge of exactly how grateful the owners should be to the players for all the money coming their way because people want to watch those players? I imagine public sentiment could provide a bit of leverage to the union in the future as well.

Jay Jaffe

2:24

Because opening the books is probably the last thing that the owners are ever going to do. They're more likely to burn down the sport — read: lock the players out next spring — than they are to ever show us the money and the accounting tricks they use to avoid taxes and to milk new stadiums and other gains from taxpayers.

John

2:24

I will be going to Cooperstown this fall. While the HOF is obviously the main attraction, what other things do you most enjoy seeing on Main Street or around town?

Jay Jaffe

2:28

My time is always so tight when I'm in Cooperstown that I generally don't get too much leisure. I do enjoy browsing the memorabilia shops and getting a drink at the Cooperstown Beverage Exchange on Main St. Would love to make it out to Ommegang (still hasn't happened despite half a dozen visits) and to explore some of the area's natural beauty but it's going to be awhile before I get to do all that.

Scott W

2:28

How about a poll for NL 2nd wild card - SD, Cinn, Stl, Phi, NYM

Jay Jaffe

2:28

I think it's a two-team race between SD and Cincy — wrote a bit about the latter here (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/surging-reds-lose-hot-hitting-jesse-winker...) — but sure, let's do a poll.

2:29

NL Wild Card 2 Race

Padres (34.7% | 26 votes)

Reds (50.7% | 38 votes)

Cardinals (5.3% | 4 votes)

Phillies (5.3% | 4 votes)

Mets (4% | 3 votes)

Total Votes: 75

Jake

2:29

With Baseball America ranking their farm #1 and ownership planning to open up the checkbook this off-season, has there ever been a more optimistic time to be a Mariners fan?

Jay Jaffe

2:31

I mean, having Griffey, A-Rod, the Big Unit, Edgar AND a new ballpark on the way was probably the peak time for Mariners fans to be optimistic, but right now, things are definitely looking up, particularly with the Angels getting nowhere despite Ohtani's superstardom and the jettisoning of Pujols.

2:32

who's your NL MVP and Cy Young if you voted today?

Jay Jaffe

2:35

CY: Burnes, Wheeler, Buehler, deGrom (too few innings, alas), Woodruff

2:36

MVP: Tatis, Muncy, Trea, Acuña, and then either Crawford or Posey

Guest

2:37

Steve Cohen is a choad, but it is truly hard to understand how the previously-successful hitters in the Mets lineup can be as unproductive as they are. Their much-discussed injury woes don't actually seem to have affected their record nearly as much as the poor hitting from the regulars in the lineup. Hard to envision even the great Kris Bryant helping out much.

Jay Jaffe

2:41

I'm going to disagree with you about the injury woes. Losing deGrom, Carrasco and Syndergaard is pretty back-breaking for the rotation, and I don't think we can disconnect the subpar work of guys like Conforto and McNeil from their injury-related absences. Losing Lindor as he was heating up, and missing Nimmo and Davis for a long time haven't helped either. While the Mets hung in first place amid a lot of those injuries, without them they might have run away with the NL East whether or not, say, Dominic Smith hit like he did last year.

barrust

2:41

Not really a chat question (sorry) but I couldn't find a place to submit an issue with the site. The Live scoreboards in dark mode are unreadable (well, the teams and score portion). Just wanted to let someone know! Thanks!

Jay Jaffe

2:42

I wil relay this to the authorities

Chris

2:42

How are the mariners only at 3.9% for making the playoffs? They have 3 wins and the season series on the blue jays and face the dbacks and royals 13 more times

Jay Jaffe

2:46

It's a combination of factors. For one, they have one of the tougher remaining schedules of any AL contender (.517). Second, they have three teams ahead of them in the WC race (Yankees, Red Sox, A's, all at least 2.5 games ahead). And third, they project to regress significantly based on our projection systems, with a ROS win% of just .470 while the Yankees and Red Sox are .580 or above, and the A's .519. They're not out of it but they'll have to keep playing well above their heads and navigate through traffic to get a spot.

Alex

2:46

If MLB were to have a salary floor, what is stopping tanking teams like the Orioles, Rangers, and Pirates from just getting to the floor by trading for bloated contracts (see: Hosmer) packaged with premium prospects?

Jay Jaffe

2:46

Right. I don't think the salary floor is the solution that some people think that it is, for reasons along these lines.

GarySanchezRBW

2:47

The Yankees obviously don't have the best record in the American League, and there are still uncertainties abound with various players and their injury statuses, but are they the last team you'd want to have to beat in the playoffs this year?

Jay Jaffe

2:47

No, because I'd much less like to be lined up against Buehler-Scherzer-Kershaw-Urías than any quartet of Yankees that could be available.

Chris

2:48

Why isn't Scott servais getting national manager of the year love? Everyone seems to be talking about Hinch for some reason?

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