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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/16/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:03
Good afternoon and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. Today I'm celebrating the four-year anniversary of the day I proposed to Emma Span, somewhere on the gorgeous grounds of the Getty Museum overlooking Los Angeles (we saw Clayton Kershaw pitch later that night), mourning the death of Aretha Franklin by playing her 1971 Fillmore West concert in the background ( spin it but only after your goosebumps from this, her cover of "The Weight," subsides ), and waiting with anticipation as the editorial elves tackle an epic article near and dear to my heart, about the 1998 Yankees, whose 20-year anniversary is being celebrated in the Bronx this weekend.

Anyway, on with the show…
Bo
12:03
After reading your piece on Acuna, then Dan's piece on ROY, I'm inclined to believe if he keeps up anything close to what he's done since the break, he'll take it home. Agree?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
I don't think the last chapter of the race between Acuña and Soto has been written, by any means, and I do have at least some concern about the lingering effects of the former's unsolicited, bush-league plunking by Jose Ureña last night. X-rays were negative, but until he's back and mashing, I'm holding my breath.
Concrete fan
12:04
Do you consider the AL West a true division title race?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:05
The Astros' lead has shrunk to two games, so it sure as hell is a race now.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:05
Ureña will miss one or two starts, the Braves potentially miss their star rookie while everyone else potentially misses great highlights and an amazing ROY race. Obviously the league is not doing a good job handling the externalities of head hunting. Should other people (ownership, manager?) be punished?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:07
Klew
12:09
Why do you suppose the Yankees started Cessa over Gray last night? We’re all well aware of Gray’s struggles at home but he’s clearly the more proven guy and it could’ve been a great chance to earn more trust in a fickle rotation.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
Gray hasn't thrown more than 3.1 innings since July 26, and his results in the bullpen have been uneven, so I'm guessing the Yankees felt that moving him back to the rotation is premature.
Concrete fan
12:10
What is your opinion on 40-man September rosters, should it remain 40 or would 30 maybe be a better alternative?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
I would prefer that teams be allowed a few callups (maybe 5 max) but designate 25 players as active for each September game without requiring an option or a DL stint. The ability to, say, deactivate last night's starter would allow for a minor tactical expansion — a Terrance Gore, say — would be an improvement on the inequities that September baseball now creates.
David
12:13
Why should Jose Urena still be employed by MLB after his actions last night?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:15
I don't approve of what Ureña did, but in the testosterone-gone-wild world of baseball clubhouses, with the game's long and unfortunately romanticized legacy of beanball retribution, I understand that he may have felt pressured into some kind of purpose pitch. A suspension is warranted, but so is perspective.
Jon
12:15
Could we get a piece by Sheryl about when using the context of sport to physically harm someone without provocation could be considered criminal behavior?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:15
I will forward that suggestion to her.
Nelson
12:15
You've carved out a really neat niche as the HOF expert, but do you ever get tired of answered "should this guy be in" questions?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
Being that guy helps keep the mortgage payments going, and I enjoy both the specific conversations and the general chance to connect with baseball fans of all age via a great and ongoing tradition of debate, so no.  

It was my dumb luck to tap into such a great renewable resource, and I'll be damned if I'm going to stop "playing the hits" so long as people enjoy them
12:20
Apparently, Sheryl Ring already wrote about what you asked about, Jon https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-law-of-the-headhunter/
Sugar
12:20
I don't know if I've seen anyone make closing so easy in a while than Diaz this past week.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
Their value may be somewhat inflated but decades of watching Mariano Rivera and Kenley Jansen gave me an appreciation nonetheless. A great, dominant closer on a roll is something to behold.
Sad Nats Fan
12:21
In Meg's chat the other day there was a discussion about teams playing players out of position, it hurting their WAR, and the fairness of using WAR to evaluate these players. Can you think of any HoFers or perspective HoFers who've been hurt (at least in the JAWS sense) by being played out of position long-term?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
I noted the other day the way the late 1950s/early'60s Giants had to send either Orlando Cepeda or Willie McCovey to the outfield to fit those two big bats into the lineup, but that wasn't the reason Cepeda needed to wait for election by the Veterans Committee (his mid-30s falloff and 1975 drug bust were much bigger factors).

Derek Jeter probably should have been the one to move off shortstop when Alex Rodriguez arrived (though I think people take A-Rod's continued success at the position as a given, whereas I'm skeptical).

I do think the candidacy of Gary Sheffield has been harmed significantly by some brutal defensive metrics. Obviously, the bat would have carried any position he played but I wonder if he'd been moved to the outfield or first base earlier in his career if he'd have been at least solid average at one spot.
Gerald
12:28
Do you like prospects? Baseball prospects, to be clear.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
I have no expertise in this area and so can almost always learn something by reading about prospects — whether it's Eric and Kiley, the Baseball America team, the Baseball Prospectus team, the MLB Pipeline folks, Keith Law, etc. —  particularly once they make the jump to the high minors and their MLB arrival becomes a distinct possibility.
Kike's Tight Pants
12:31
Any chance Keith Hernandez gets suspended/punished for his silly comments last night re: hitting Acuna? Please?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
PLEASE learn how to type Kiké on your device. And please stop fantasizing that baseball will do anything regarding the dinosaur opinions of yesterday's stars in today's booths.
Stevil
12:32
Jose Ramirez is having an MVP season, but does he stand a chance at actually getting the award with Betts and Trout healthy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
Trout, unfortunately, isn't healthy right now, and it's not a given that he can maintain his torrid pace when coming back from a wrist injury. Betts did his own DL stint earlier this season. I think the race will be decided in the final weeks of the season — enjoy it, because it's a great one.
Finding Nimmo
12:36
I've heard that Rodon's recent resurgence isn't quite backed by peripherals. How valid do you think his last 10 starts have been and what is the outlook moving forward?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
Rodon has a 2.69 ERA and 4.17 overall, and 1.60/3.38 over his last seven starts, all of them quality starts. The numbers are basically saying that's unsustainable, and I'm a bit nervous about his lowered strikeout and groundball rates, but I still think he can be a solid mid-rotation guy, maybe even a bit better than that, when fully healthy.
JJ
12:38
Brett Anderson 2ER in his last 20 innings. Is it sustainable? He is available in my deep AL only league.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
do you know anybody for whom an 0.90 ERA is sustainable with or without an 11.7% strikeout rate? pick them up on waivers in your league, because I'm sure they're just there for the taking.

Sorry to snark. I'm not the guy to ask for fantasy questions, but that's too fat a pitch to lay off.
tb.25
12:41
Will whoever wins ROY be more likely to have the HOF career? Or will their performance 5+ years from now be completely irrelevant to this year's accolade and performance to win it
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
ROY isn't very predictive of a Hall of Fame future. Bill James' Hall of Fame Monitor metric, which attempts to quantify the traditional accomplishments that historically have appealed to Hall votes, value a ROY as 1 point, each All-Star appearance as 3 points, and each MVP as 8 points. So figure that the difference in gains between a five-time All-Star and single-time MVP winner — the kind of player over whom we might be having a real debate about which side of the border he falls — is almost imperceptible.
Bo
12:46
What does the Braves' 2019 rotation look like? Folty, Newcomb, Gausman, Touki, Allard? Where do guys like Teheran, Soroka, and Fried fit?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
The Braves have incredible depth in the pitching department. It wouldn't surprise me if they traded Teheran this winter, but I would expect the situation regarding the younger arms behind Folty, Newcombe and Gausman to remain rather fluid due to workloads and injuries.
Mortimer Smith
12:48
HUGE debut for Wilson Ramos on the national stage last night. What are the chances the Phillies look to offer him a contract this offseason?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
I'm skeptical, as I don't see them giving up on Alfaro's long-term potential. That said, a 31-year-old catcher with Ramos' injury is not going to get a massive deal, and if the job share is effective down the stretch, maybe the team will try to maintain that.
Kristen
12:50
Thoughts on Jurickson Profar who's finally healthy and 3rd on the team in fWAR?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
I'm elated that we've finally gotten to see what a season of regular play from Profar looks like. Good power, patience, contact profile, though from afar I'm a little mystified why the batting average is so low. I've been meaning to write about him, so look for something soon.
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