JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/11/20

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 8/11/20

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Jay Jaffe

2:01

Good afternoon and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. First off, here's my piece from today about Fernando Tatis Jr.'s statistical dominance and the joy he's bringing https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fernando-tatis-jr-enters-the-stratosphere/

2:02

And here's yesterday's dispatch about the Marlins' unlikely — and likely unsustainable — success amid a massive coronavirus outbreak https://blogs.fangraphs.com/despite-outbreak-marlins-skate-to-the-top-...

And now, on with the show

Inaccessible Rail

2:02

Have you or anyone else looked at how lost playing time (wars, strikes, pandemics) affects one's chances of HoF enshrinement?

Jay Jaffe

2:04

I took a stab in a 3-part series here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/missed-time-and-the-hall-of-fame-part-1/ (change the last digit in the URL) I have a couple stray thoughts that might lead me to revisit that down the road. It's also worth noting that old friend Travis Sawchik did some of the heavy lifting for a piece on players missing time for WWII https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-year-off-might-do-to-baseb...

James

2:04

Manny Machado has logged 735 PA in a Padres uniform and has been good! At what point should the Padres be concerned that their $300 million man may actually be a good player instead of the excellent one that got him said contract?

Jay Jaffe

2:06

They should be far more concerned about Eric Hosmer being sub-replacement level (-0.2 WAR through 2+ seasons) for $144 million. Good-not-great won't kill you even if it's expensive. Bad-not-good might do the trick.

Inaccessible Rail

2:07

The Mets seem to have a strategy of buying low on guys who were hurt or had down seasons like Betances or Wacha. This strategy never seems to work for them, but I see it work for other teams pretty regularly. Is this bad scouting or just bad luck?

Jay Jaffe

2:08

Probably a little from column A, a little from column B. Note that Porcello, who also fits the bill, has a 6.82 ERA but somehow also a 2.87 FIP.

I'd give it time before going into full-on panic about any of those guys individually, but collectively, in the context of a team that's lost Syndergaard and now Stroman for the year... whew, it's not gonna be a good one in Queens.

Sum

2:09

Jay, hope you and the family are well. tonight's Marlins/Jays game is scheduled for a 6:37 start time. do you know why these scheduling idiosyncrasies (still) exist? was/is it used to stagger start times for some logistical reason?

Jay Jaffe

2:10

I'd be lying if I said I understood the logic of the various start times we're seeing around MLB these days. Haven't given it much thought as to why; i just turn on the TV when I do, sometimes after looking at the schedule, sometimes not.

caesar_solid

2:10

Thoughts on Spencer Howard's debut?

Jay Jaffe

2:12

I didn't see it and honestly don't know much about him beyond what I can read in a Top 100 capsule, but jeez, he's got 30.2 IP above High-A, so I'm not at all surprised to see that he got lit up

bighen

2:12

Would two of the Mets top 5 prospects be enough for Johnny Cueto? Asking for an agent masquerading as a GM

Jay Jaffe

2:14

It might be but that's not enough to make a difference in the context of what ails the Mets now, and when you add the fact that they shed talent in the Cano and Stroman trades, it starts to look self-defeating. As it is, the Mets are 23rd on THE BOARD in terms of total talent https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-in-season-prospect-...

Eli

2:15

Time to worry about Gary Sanchez? Outside of his transcendent 2016, he has been really inconsistent with either his offense or defense (or both) being excruciating to watch

Jay Jaffe

2:16

I wonder if all the focus on defense, and particularly on that new stance, has cost him offensively. But before I panic I want to know if he's actually healthy; he plays through some lower body problems and it generally ends up costing him.

Raphie C

2:17

Hey Jay, loved the piece on El Niño -- you mentioned that Tatis Jr. is likely to see some regression from his meteoric numbers thus far -- I'm wondering if the same can be said for his teammate Manny Machado, whose low offensive numbers belie a .222 BABIP and a 40.8% hard hit rate. Is this just an unlucky start for Machado, or indicative of more trouble down the road?

Jay Jaffe

2:18

His EV is down a bit, as is his xwOBA, but he still has a .270 xAVG and .456 xSLG, so I think there's a bit of bad luck in the mix.

Sonny

2:18

As a Batting Average appreciator (it's an important stat! Just not the most important stat) I'm torn on DJ and Charlie B putting up pinball numbers. All #s are weird this year but what do we do if both guys are still running down all-time stats in 3 weeks?

Jay Jaffe

2:19

We're always going to have to take the 2020 numbers with a grain of salt; comparing anything this year to a single-season record is flat-out ridiculous. Doesn't mean we can't marvel at it if somebody hits .406 or posts a 1.12 ERA, but that won't be the equal of Ted Williams or Bob Gibson.

2:20

But I do think, as I said at the FanGraphs NYC event last fall, it's time to give a shit about batting average again, particularly given how low the leaguewide numbers are

WinTwins0410

2:20

Jay, I know there are a million baseball books out there, but have you ever read Richard Lyttle’s “A Year in the Minors”? It came out in 1975 and was on my school library’s bookshelf when I was a kid. You and I are about the same age, and I remember reading it as a kid and being struck by seeing the name of an MLBer I’d actually heard of — Cubs pitcher Doug Capilla — in the book, when Capilla was a minor leaguer. Curious if you’ve ever heard of the book and if so, I wonder why the book hasn’t held up more. (It may be that it’s not that great of a book!)

Jay Jaffe

2:21

I've never heard of it, actually. I've got so many recent baseball books in the pile — it turns out having a preschooler at home during a pandemic is a recipe for not ever having a chance to read anything longer than a few thousand words. Interested if anybody else out there knows this book.

Estevao

2:21

I commented on an earlier chat that the Dodgers could field a lineup strictly of a players drafted by the organization with Smith, Beaty, Lux, Seager, Rios, Joc, Cody and Peter's but I forgot to mention they could do the same with the starting rotation, Buehler, Kershaw, Stripping, May and Gonsolin

Jay Jaffe

2:23

You forgot Urias.

And yes, it's a remarkable collection of homegrown talent even if Lux is kind of lost at the alternate site right now

Estevao

2:24

What happened with Jose Ramirez?

Jay Jaffe

2:24

He was great, then very bad, then very good again. I know Craig Edwards checked on him multiple times last year; this appears to be the most recent https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-old-school-approach-failed-jose-ramire...

YardGoat

2:26

Hello Jay. I hope you are doing well. I'm curious, what is the oldest a player has debuted and made the HOF (excluding delayed due to segregation)?

Jay Jaffe

2:27

It looks like it's Hoyt Wilhelm, who was 29 years and 267 days old when he debuted in 1962. He made up for lost time by pitching almost to his 50th birthday.

2:28

Wilhelm also homered in his first plate appearance (which didn't come until his 3rd outing) but never again.

2:29

Here's the full Stathead query on HOF debut age-seasons, https://stathead.com/sharing/PoEs6

glt4dc

2:29

Of all the assorted changes made to MLB in 2020, a) which one do you like best/least, b) which one do you think is most/least likely to return in 2021?

Jay Jaffe

2:30

I'm not sure yet whether I dislike the extra innings rule or the expanded playoff format less yet, but I suspect it would wind up being the latter; I just think it's dumb as hell if a division winner goes 0-2 and is eliminated.

2:31

The 7-inning doubleheader thing doesn't really bother me, but that's not to say that I like it. I suspect that might have the best chance of sticking as players don't seem to mind it.

Estevao

2:33

I'm almost certain we'll see at least one big upset in the first round of the playoffs because of the length of the series, are ppl underestimating the potential for that to happen. Best of 3 in baseball is too short

Jay Jaffe

2:33

Yup

WinTwins0410

2:33

Just a follow-up on my earlier question -- the New York Times did actually write about the book when it was published (makes me want to dig up a copy and take a look at it): https://www.nytimes.com/1975/04/06/archives/a-year-in-the-minors.html

Jay Jaffe

2:33

noted, re the minors book

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