JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/23/21

Jay Jaffe

2:02

Hey folks! Welcome to another edition of my chat, this one falling on the same day as my father's 80th birthday. I've just completed my annual Replacement Level Killers series, the last installment of which — center fielder and DHs — went up just a couple of hours ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2021-replacement-level-killers-center-...

I briefly addressed the Rays' Nelson Cruz acquisition therein, but here's Dan Szymborski's writeup, freshly minted for your enjoyment https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tampa-bay-obtains-a-cruz-missile/

2:03

Not sure how soon we'll have analysis of the Mets trading for Rich Hill — I mean, Dick Mountain — but soon enough.

2:04

Will Gallo be traded?

Jay Jaffe

2:05

I think so. He's having an excellent season, making his 2nd All-Star team, comes with a year of club control so the return will be strogner, and he's versatile enough to fit any team with an OF, 1B, or even DH need.

2:06

Still think the Padres and Yankees are the most likely destinations

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

2:07

Do you expect TB to trade for a starter soon after the Hill deal?

Jay Jaffe

2:09

I imagine they'll pick up some pitching but I know they expect Chris Archer back soon, and Luis Patiño just made his first start back from Triple-A

WhyKenleyWhy

2:10

Would you trust Kenley in the closer spot if the Dodgers make it to the playoffs?

Jay Jaffe

2:13

Right now, no, not after 3 straight blown saves, but he had just thrown 14 straight scoreless innings before this bad run. I do think the Dodgers need to fortify their bullpen with another late-inning arm but I don't know that he needs to be a closer — they can try Blake Treinen for the ninth, or maybe Corey Knebel if he comes back strong

Joshua

2:14

If the Nats become sellers, what type of returns could you see them getting for their two impending free agent relievers, Brad Hand and Daniel Hudson? Thanks.

Jay Jaffe

2:15

based on last year, the going rate seems to be about two PTBNL, low-level guys you probably haven't heard of and might not hear of again for at least a couple years, if at all.

Michael Ortman

2:15

The Cleveland Guardians? Pretty generic compared to so many other options.

Jay Jaffe

2:17

It is inoffensive, so it's a vast improvement on the racist name and grotesque caricature that it replaces. It apparently has a lot of local significance based on the Guardians of Traffic statues on the Hope Memorial Bridge near the ballpark — those are quite attractive, I'll admit. I wish they had tweaked the colors because so many teams have red and navy, and I'll forever think they should have reclaimed the Spiders name, but I don't hate this.

FriarFan

2:18

Happy 80th to your dad! On Gallo to the Padres, if you were GM for a day, how would you fit him into the lineup/defense? How do you think the Padres will?

Jay Jaffe

2:20

What makes the most sense to me would be to put Gallo in RF, Wil Myers at 1B (where he played regularly in 2016-17) because he's never been a very good outfielder, and leave Eric Hosmer by the roadside with a note attached. From what i read last week, I think they could even go more direct by using Gallo at 1B

Ryan

2:21

Machado should finish up his age 28 season with about 46 Bwar. What number do you think gets him into the hall. Does he have to get to 70 or 75 to consider him a lock?

Jay Jaffe

2:24

70 is pretty much a lock. The only players who have at least 70, are currently eligible for election, and don't have any PED links are Bill Dahlen, Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, and Scott Rolen, with Carlos Beltran (2023) and Adrian Beltre (2024) on deck.

Michael Ortman

2:24

If Gallo comes to the Padres, are they banking on him being the DH next year?

Jay Jaffe

2:25

No, he's a plus fielder with a fantastic arm, and even won a Gold Glove last year (which was all metrics-based). He's not their DH.

Twins Fan

2:25

What's your take/reaction to the Cruz trade?

Jay Jaffe

2:26

it's right there in the RLK article, at least with regards to its fit for the Rays. Sounds like the cost in prospects was high but if you're going to get a DH bat, you've got the best one there is this side of Ohtani.

Brad Lipton

2:27

I didn't follow the narrative last night, but was Chapman not available?

Jay Jaffe

2:28

I wasn't following closely but Chapman had worked two days in a row, and so I think Boone wanted to avoid him

Brad Lipton

2:29

Did you know (before recently) that there was a guy who won speed skating metals at the Olympics AND played MLB?

Jay Jaffe

2:29

Yes. Wrote about Eddy Alvarez last year, during the Marlins' outbreak. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/despite-outbreak-marlins-skate-to-the-top-...

Steven

2:30

Okay, I'm starting to get worried, can you give me any reasons to hold out hope for Bellinger?

Jay Jaffe

2:31

He's young and outstandingly athletic and probably hasn't entirely forgotten how to hit a baseball very far. But he's pretty damm lost right now, and I imagine he might not be fully comfortable with his lower half mechanics in the wake of multiple leg injuries.

Syndergaardengnomes

2:32

What makes Guardians such a poor choice for a franchise name is obvious... Three syllables doesn't work unless it can be easily shortened, ie, Cards, Nats...

Jay Jaffe

2:32

Guards.

Bart

2:32

Please rank R Hill ROS

Jay Jaffe

2:32

Peak Dick Mountain

Sox Fan

2:33

From listening to Chicago radio it seems like the main motivation for Yermin Mercedes "retirement" was frustration at his recent demotion and being passed over for promotion by Seby Zavala after Grandal's recent injury. Do you think he has a legitimate case for being angry at his not being on the White Sox active roster?

Jay Jaffe

2:36

Prior to his demotion he had just two innings of regular season catching since September 1, 2019, so it's not like the Sox viewed him as much more than an emergency option, and his bat had pretty much died after that hot start. Sending him down to find his stroke and get reps behind the plate isn't unreasonable, but I do wonder if the lines of communication were as clear as they needed to be.

Calvin Coolidge

2:37

I have asked this question to other FG writers, but curious to get your take: are there any players (past or present) who have exerted a stronger influence on the game as it exists today than Scott boras? (FWIW Jackie and Clemente are on my list)

Jay Jaffe

2:40

saw this q towards the end of last week's chat. I think it's very tough to compare on vs. off field impacts. Boras has had a strong influence but not as strong as Marvin Miller, for example, or Branch Rickey, and maybe not as strong as Bill James and his analytical progeny. On the field, the most obvious names to include with Robinson and Clemente are Ruth and Curt Flood.

Mike

2:40

Is Eugenio Suarez done?

Jay Jaffe

2:41

He is a mess but I find it hard to believe a guy who's 30 and ostensibly healthy is done.

2:41

do the Astros upgrade CF?

Jay Jaffe

2:42

There's not a lot out there and Myles Straw has exceeded expectations with his 95 wRC+ and 1.9 WAR, so if they do something about CF, it will be pretty modest I think

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