Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/21/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:03
Howdy, folks! Apologies for the late notice on today's chat. I was wrapping up a piece on Shohei Ohtani's pause from pitching and had some away-from-keyboard responsibilities that prevented me from putting together the nuts and bolts for this chat.
12:05
It's been a few weeks since I was able to pull one of these off due to my annual trip to Cape Cod (which was lovely) and then being buried neck-deep in my annual Replacement-Level Killers series spotlighting the most glaring holes on contending teams. That series wrapped up yesterday with the entry on designated hitters (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-replacement-level-killers-designa...). You can use the navbar atop the article to find the other five entries of the series.
12:07
I had a lot of fun this past weekend at Yankee Stadium for the biennial Dodgers-Yankees regular season series. I went on Friday night as a fan and saw Roki Sasaki pitch well and Max Muncy ruin the nights of Gerrit Cole and Aaron Boone, then returned on Sunday for the doubleheader after rain washed away Saturday night's game. It was a split-admission doubleheader; I was at the ballpark for just over 12 hours and watched most of the World Cup final between games while plugging away at those DHs.
Anyway, the question queue is still filling up due to the late notice of this chat, but i'll dive in.
daml91
12:07
Nolan Arenado, the newest member of the 2,000 hit club. Is he in for you?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
Oh, i missed this last night as it happened after I wrapped up work and baseball attention. https://www.mlb.com/news/nolan-arenado-reaches-2-000-career-hits
12:09
12:14
Arenado is 20th in JAWS 4.2 points below the career standard but 0.8 WAR above the peak standard, with the 14th-highest peak score at the position. He's in the midst of a modest resurgence, with 1.6 bWAR so far compared to 1.3 for all of last season. I viewed him as something of a slam dunk a few years ago thanks to his 10 Gold Gloves, eight All-Star selections,  and three Coors-fueled home run titles, but his 30s have been a grind. I'm not sure if he'll make it to the JAWS standard — he needs another 8.4 WAR after totaling 7.8 since the start of 2023 — but I think he'll have the "Fame" to get in
And I'll probably vote for him.
krob4385
12:15
Does Lindor's tough year in any way diminish his HOF chances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
With just 0.5 WAR in 44 games due to injuries, this has been a rough season for Lindor, but he's still in pretty good shape during his age-32 season:
12:20
He's about two years younger than Arenado, and with far more recent momentum (5.8 bWAR last year)
12:21
If this is the start of a major collapse obviously it doesn't bode well for him, especially with the outsized expectations that come with a big contract for a New York ballplayer, but i'm not yet ready to downgrade him from a likely future Hall of Famer.
mikeladd123
12:22
The 2/3 point of the season is all but here. I feel ROS has too much of prior year bias in most cases to be worthy in making decisions. Is it reasonable to look just at YTD/60 day/30 day type data in making add/drop decisions?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
I think it depends what your purpose is. You always want to be trying to estimate a player's true talent level, but those estimates can be colored by recent injuries and improved/degraded processes — learning a new pitch, adjusting a swing, adapting to a new ballpark/role, etc. If you're a fantasy player chasing the hot hand, 30 or 60 days might be a better clue as to where a player is headed, but if you're a GM trying to build a lineup for 2027, you probably need to consider much more data.
JustinPBG
12:24
How does the 'contact wins in october' myth persist? Especially in the high strikeout environment, it's probably false. Obviously you would rather contact than not. But... I don't understand
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
Not unlike our current political situation, it's part of a larger culture war with some informational asymmetry. The people with the loudest megaphones — mainstream broadcast and news outlets — aren't the ones who are doing historical studies; at best maybe a saber- or analytics-friendly broadcaster or reporter might amplify something like that, but may receive strong pushback from the old-school players alongside him (or her).
Phil
12:27
It's being reported that the Red Sox would still consider trading Gray and Chapman. Does that makes sense to you? I get that they have pitching depth in theory, but they also have three of their season-opening starters on the IL, and the bullpen has relied very heavily on guys like Guerrero, Weissert, and Slaten, who all look good now but didn't not that long ago. This run might not continue, but I would think Breslow would prefer it ending in a way that's not obviously his fault.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
I think given their turnaround and the narrative arc of Breslow's tenure, they have to be buyers, or at least not sellers, at the deadline. You can't have too much pitching, and with Crochet's injury — he's still not throwing — they're in absolutely no position to be shedding starting pitching. Maybe they could flip Chapman in a deal that opens up payroll and gets them another live arm for the late innings, but that's the kind of hubris that gets cited in executive postmortems.
Phillip Denny
12:31
You think we'll have a team break the 05 Padres record (82-80) for worst win percentage to make the playoffs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
Well, the 1981 Royals were 50-53 (.485) but made it into the playoffs because they won the AL West's second-half race but assuming you mean full season, I think there will still be at least 6 teams in each league with records above .500, though the AL West bears watching.
Phil
12:34
What do you think Yoshida will be up to on August 4th? DHing for the Red Sox? Sitting on the bench as an emergency lefty pinch hitter? Playing a mediocre left field for someone else? On a flight to Japan?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
Still with the Red Sox because Anthony won't be back and because I can't see the team paying down Yoshida's contract (~$24 million) enough to move him.
tjcook87
12:35
As Schwarber seemingly slugs his way into a 500-home run convo, a HoF debate is popping up in slow motion. There’s seemingly zero chance he hits any WAR or JAWS standards, so I’m curious - does he meet any of the “Fame” standards in your eye if he gets to 500 HRs? Or is he just a “nice work being the most statistically accomplished of the 2016 Cubs” type player?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
I don't think a Hall voter can or should ignore what will likely stand as one of the best postseason resumés of the era — not to mention Schwarber's sheer entertainment value — but I'm not yet convinced it will be enough to get him to 75% of the vote. I can't yet see voting for him myself.
dodgerdog
12:39
Do you expect Mike Scioscia to eventually make the HOF as a manager? It seems he needs Bochy and Dusty (and possibly Francona) elected to clear the ballot, but after them should Scioscia be next up? More wins and a higher winning percentage than Lasorda, Herzog and Dick Williams, plus 19 years with the same team. Was also just the third manager to win a WS with no HOF players; the first two (Lasorda and Leyland) are both in the Hall.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
As you note, there's a bit of a logjam ahead of him — and I'd include Lou Piniella, who's fallen one vote short twice and will almost certainly remain in consideration, too. I think in time Scioscia will get there,  especially because his period at the helm of the Angels continues to look great in retrospect to the shitshow that has ensued since then.
Jeremy Fox
12:42
Mookie Betts is 33 and now well into his second straight season as a league average-ish hitter. Sure looks like age-based decline, which if he were still a right fielder might make his HoF case a bit less of slam dunk than it looked like it was going to be two years ago. On the other hand, he turned himself from a right fielder into a solid shortstop in his early 30s, which is basically unprecedented. How has Mookie's play this season and last affected his HoF case in your mind?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
Easy Hall of Famer, still. The mid-career conversion to shortstop has been ridiculous, and he's now been part of four World Series winners, with 77 bWAR and 66.3 JAWS, not to mention six Gold Gloves, an MVP and three runner-up finishes. Nobody with those credentials and a clean sheet as far as PEDs is concerned is eligible for election and outside the Hall.
war2d2
12:45
Yesterday Alex Bregman made a bad swing decision that cost the Cubs the game. I’m still salty about that (and his lackluster season to date), but what do you think the chances are that that matchup (Bregman v. Jansen) winds up in the Hall? I feel like at this point Jansen is as close to a lock as closers get, but Bregman will have to keep producing at a 4-WAR clip for the duration of the Cubs contract for me to feel like he’s got a coin-flip shot at it.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
4-WAR seasons won't cut it. Bregman only has two seasons of 5.0 bWAR or better, both during the high-homer 2018–19 seasons. He's 31 and has a 37.8 bWAR peak score, and is gonna need to boost that and to maintain significant longevity to play himself into consideration.
TKDC
12:51
Jacob deGrom has two career shutouts outs. Madison Bumgarner has three career playoff shutouts. He is also a year younger than deGrom. Does Bumgarner have any sort of “if you squint, considering his offensive value and postseason and the changing nature of starting pitcher maybe he finds a niche way forward” case for the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
Bumgarner finished his career with just 37.2 bWAR including hitting. But he never came close to winning a Cy Young or leading the league in WAR or a triple-crown category. deGrom has 49.6 bWA, two Cys, two strikeout leads, an ERA lead, a WAR lead, and a solid postseason resumé that isn't completely overshadowed by Bumgarner's. I'm lukewarm at best on deGrom's Hall chances but I like them a whole hell of a lot more than Bumgarner's (he'll be on the 2028 ballot).
Jeremy Fox
12:56
Do you think Dave Roberts might make the Hall one day as a manager? Or are voters going to take the view that anyone given an all star team to manage would win a bunch of games and multiple WS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
Yes. Three championships plus two pennants and 11 straight playoff appearances, with the highest winning percentage (.621) of any non-Negro Leagues manager is Hall material regardless of how great his roster is. I should note additionally that while the winning percentage will likely regress, the highest of any manager whose career extended into the post-1960 expansion era is that of Al Lopez (.584) so Roberts has a considerable cushion for that distinction.
A 2016 Cubs 2-fer, incoming:
war2d2
12:59
While I appreciate that Schwarber gets the plaudits because, as you said, he’s just an incredibly fun player to root for, Willson Contreras will almost certainly finish his career with more “statistical accomplishments” than anyone from the 2016 team. He won’t have a nice round number like 500 HR, but I’m willing to bet he finishes ahead of any of anyone on that team in career WAR. He only needs 7 bWAR to pass Rizzo, and he’s already 10 ahead of Schwarber. Lester only has 43 and I’m guessing Willson finishes around 45 or so.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
I tend to agree on that front.
Cromulent
1:01
I take it for granted that Theo Epstein will be in the Hall of Fame someday. But what is the usual timeline for considering an executive? Five years removed from a daily role? Kind of seems like Theo should already be in even though he’s got maybe 20 to 30 years left to give, if he wants.
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