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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/9/20
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:02
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat! Apologies for not being able to fill this slot last week — the protests in Brooklyn left us without our usual dose of child care from my saintly mother-in-law, because travel from New Jersey was untenable.
2:04
A bit of housekeeping: I've got a two-part deep dive into MLB amateur draft history, illustrating the best picks from later rounds by WAR. Many thanks to Ben Clemens for the database help that made such a series possible; I had some fun putting it together.  https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/beyond-round-5-the-best-later-round-dr... https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/beyond-round-5-the-best-later-round-dr...
Regarding the draft: I'm really no expert, so I won't have answers to most questions regarding who will go tomorrow — those questions are best left to Eric Longenhagen.
Anj
2:04
A lot of what I've seen has the Orioles taking Martin #2.  If say, the Tigers surprise and go Martin at #1, do you think the chances of the O's going underslot increase or decrease?  So basically, would they be more or less likely to go underslot if it was Torkelson on the board at 2 rather than Martin?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
The entirety of what I know about this year's draft is that Torkelson was my cousin's neighbor in Petaluma, California and so therefore should be taken first, because my cousin was super-generous with passing me his 1966-75 baseball card collection when I was younger.
David
2:06
do You think the bad faith negotiations by ownership are going to impact the next round of cba negotiations in 2022?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
I think it's pretty clear from the current state of things that the next round of CBA negotiations is going to be a nightmare even if they do manage to find compromise for something besides a 50ish-game season this year. There's so much rancor between the two sides right now, and Rob Manfred is constitutionally incapable of coming off like anything but a bully. I don't think all that highly of Tony Clark as a union leader, but the players have been galvanized by what the owners and Manfred have done over the past few years — the free agent freezeouts, most notably — and are clearly leery of giving up more ground.
Anj
2:11
Any further updates on Trey Mancini?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
I don't have any inside info, alas. I know that he's undergoing chemotherapy (for Stage III colon cancer) and that it was expected to take six months, ruling him out for whatever 2020 season transpires. Judging by his Twitter account (@treymancini) he's at least online these days. Here's hoping for the best for him.
Mike Ortman
2:14
Stereolab had to cancel their show in SD also.  What’s your favorite track and/or album?  I would go with Cobra and Phases Group.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
Gah, I'm sorry to hear it but it was inevitable given all this mess.

I am a huge fan of Stereolab's earlier work. Transient Random-Noise Bursts with Announcements was the first album of theirs I bought, and the run from that album to Mars Audiac Quintet to Emperor Tomato Ketchup is my favorite. I was sooo put off by Dots and Loops, and while I've come around to it in recent years, the stuff between Ketchup and Margarine Eclipse doesn't get played much around these parts
and man oh man, i know it's going to be a long time before I get to see a show again and it really hurts
gabekaplerscoconuts
2:18
how will shortened season MVP/Cy young awards be looked at down the road for HOF voting
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
good question. I imagine it will depend at least somewhat on who's in position to win it. If they're won by players with proven track records and awards already on their shelves that will be one thing, but if somebody very random goes 9-0 with a 2.50 ERA or something it will be regarded with particular suspicion.
Mister Drummond
2:20
Hi Jay.  Regarding Hall of Fame criteria, Fame itself is something altogether than Greatness, or Really Goodness, or even Talent.  At what point does a person/player who was Famous (for whatever reason) but maybe not that Great or even Talented, inject himself into the discussion for inclusion?  Ala Laurel and Hardy, or maybe Bob Uecker, Tommy John?  Is this even a consideration?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
I think it's less important in Hall consideration than ever because we have more means of quantifying and contextualizing performance than ever. Time was that a pitcher with a short career who starred in a couple World Series — Lefty Gomez, Jesse Haines, and Chief Bender come to mind — wound up in the Hall via the Veterans Committee in part because they were famous; even without TV, the World Series commanded national attention, and their achievements resonated.
2:25
The fact that Tommy John, who has huge counting stats and a major role in the most impactful sports medicine procedure in baseball history hasn't gotten over the hump, I think, tells the story that fame isn't enough. When closely analyzed, his run prevention isn't up to the caliber of his Hall cohorts, and I think that has hurt him.
Mike Ortman
2:25
I have been doing a deep dive into Cooperstown Casebook during these last months.  It dawns on me that a paperback edition couldn’t just be a republished hardback, but that you would have to have a truly updated edition?  Any timeframe for that?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
Welllll, it's something I've thought about a lot, but unfortunately, Thomas Dunne Books, which published the book in 2017, has been shuttered, and I really don't know where I stand with St. Martin's, its parent company.

I do have an outline for a Casebook II, as well as some material that's already publication-ready (Kenny Lofton profile, for one) and if I ever get a chance to catch my breath somewhere between the endless cycle of work, child care, and outright panic, I'll look into what's next.

Glad you're enjoying the book!
David
2:28
Urias May or stripling for the 5th spot in the dodgers rotation?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
My guess is that it will be Urias, particularly with an innings cap no issue, that May will work out of the bullpen or in a swing role, and that Stripling will be traded at some point.
Archer
2:29
Do you think the MLB owners are underestimating the damage of cancelling the entire season would have on the league's relevancy to casual fans? It seems to me, that considering baseball's viewership decline the past few years that it would be a huge mistake to take games away for over a year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
Yes. Yes. A hundred times yes. It should already be evident that these billionaire bozos don't have a single clue between them on how to market the game, or the damage they will do if they let baseball go dark for the entire season.
Anj
2:30
This may have already been addressed, but if there's no baseball this year, what happens to pending FA?  Like with Mookie, the Dodgers gave up Verdugo and some to get him.  Does he just become a free agent after this season regardless of whether there's games or not?  Has this been decided?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
yes, Mookie would be a free agent. Per the March agreement, players will receive service time on par with what they got last year. From an AP thing I quoted here (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-and-the-union-hammer-out-a-deal-and-hu...)

If there are no games this year, anyone currently on a 40-man roster, 60-day injured list or an outright assignment to the minor leagues with a major league contract would receive 2020 service time equaling what the player accrued in 2019. If a partial season is played, service time would be the equivalent of what the player would have received over a full schedule.
it sucks for the Dodgers, to have given up five years of control over Verdugo, etc., for a player who would never play an official game for them, but them's the breaks, and they're a team that's fully capable of putting on their big boy pants and writing the man some large checks to keep him in Dodger Blue in 2021.
Greg
2:33
When will the mustache return to baseball ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
I'm right here, man !
Mike Ortman
2:34
Have you had a chance to see this kid Sam the Stat Man on YouTube?  I think he is going to go viral.  He has some serious game for someone his age.  FanGraphs has to feature him, or get him one Effectively Wild.  (I am no relation, just stumbled onto him because of a pandemic related rabbit hole deep dive on Twitter/YouTube.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
I have not! But IIRC, I signed a Casebook bookplate for him recently, and should really check out his videos.
David
2:35
if there are no games does the mookie trade go down as one of the worst ever?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
it would have to come with a giant asterisk, because Pandemic Cancels Season isn't something that anybody was gaming out when the two sides were negotiating the trade. I don't see how you can penalize the Dodgers for that the way you would a team that knowingly traded, like, Jeff Bagwell for a month of relief help.
Trent Hauser
2:38
Biggest winner of this draft format: MLB owners or the NCAA? Are they secretly one and the same?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
MLB owners. I don't think you can call this a win for the NCAA because it will result in a massive cluster**** due to players likely return to school because of their meager draft prospects, and that's without accounting for the fact that their budgets are going to feel the squeeze due to the cancellation of revenue-generating sports (e.g., basketball and the NCAA tournament, plus the possibility of no fans at football if not the cancellation of the football season entirely).
Mike Ortman
2:40
My next project is to reread James’s Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame.  What measurement of his do you think is the best?  HOF Monitor?  HOF Standards?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
I use the Monitor far more than the Standards, but the reason I created JAWS was in part because the Monitor doesn't do a good job of accounting for variable levels of scoring and specifically the high-offense 1990s and 2000s. James did publish an updated version in one of his recent Handbooks, but I haven't seen a single person cite it and TBH haven't looked very closely at it myself.
Lorenzo
2:43
In a 50ish game regular season and expanded playoffs, would it be appropriate to include postseason performance in MVP voting?   I understand there would still be series and WS MVP's which may or may not overlap, and I understand not every team will play the same number of playoff games,
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
I would imagine that if we do get a season, the BBWAA will keep the rules the same and require ballots to be submitted by the end of the regular season. There are separate awards for postseason MVPs that are outside of the BBWAA's purview.
Lurker
2:45
Hey Jay - I was looking at the Team Page for the Dodgers and the "usage" page, which lists lineups for the year, is incorrect for the majority of lineups.  This is really a small issue, but could you pass it along?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
as in the lineups for 2019 games are incorrect? You'll have to clarify.
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