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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/6/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of June and my last one before embarking upon the annual family trip to Cape Cod
2:02
I am battling my way through back spasms that began when I was warming up my daughter for her last Little League game (of the season for sure, of her "career" possibly)
2:03
Yesterday I took a look at Fernando Tatis Jr's return from his injuries and suspension https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fernando-tatis-jr-s-uneven-return-from-a-l...
Tomorrow I'll have a tribute to Roger Craig, whose greatest contribution to baseball was in teaching the split-fingered fastball to a generation of pitchers, to such an extent that it became "The Pitch of the '80s"
Guest
2:04
Manoah?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:05
he's got minor league options, time to shuffle off to Buffalo.
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:06
DeGrom is the modern day Dwight Gooden? Absurd peak, unquestionably the best in his day, not a HOF.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
He's closer to the modern-day Koufax, but Johan Santana or Cliff Lee are more apt comparisons. Gooden had a lengthy back end to his career and did reach 194 wins and 2,800 innings. deGrom is 35 and has 84 wins and 1,356 innings, which is closer to Santana and Lee.
Isaac Huey
2:08
If you had to guess, how many current Braves are HOFers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
the only one I'd put money on would be Ronald Acuña Jr., who... (fans self)
Isaac
2:10
What is your mount Rushmore at each position?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
Good lord, leaving aside the fact that i *hate* the Rushmore configuration (top four), you're asking me to spend time coming up with a list of 36 or more players in the middle of a chat.
that could be a week of articles
not that i'm inclined
Isaac Huey
2:14
Who do you think is better at the same age, Acuna or Aaron?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:15
Aaron and it's not even close, in part due to the playing time gap. 151-135 edge in OPS+, 38.7 to 20.9 in bWAR, plus two pennants (one WS win) and an MVP
Isaac Huey
2:16
If all teams perished tomorrow except the Oakland A's, what are their chances of climbing out of the cellar?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
I think they could win the Triple-A championship.
Chip
2:18
Is Father Time finally catching up to Justin Verlander?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
maybe. He's had three good starts, one so-so one, and two bad ones, one of which was at Coors, but beyond that the velo and strikeout rate are down, xERA is up. Stuff+ sees serious declines in both his fastball and changeup.
2:22
I wouldn't count him out just yet. A few weeks ago I started raking the dirt for a spot to begin the burial proceedings for Scherzer and he's really gotten it together.
Brian C.
2:22
In the event that Judge's stubbed toe requires the full amputation of his leg, will our insurance policy require that we seek compensation from the Dodgers for their malicious failure to Judge-proof their stadium infrastructure?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
it's been 10 years since Bryce Harper concussed himself by running into the outfield wall in Dodger Stadium. It is more than goddamn time for the Dodgers to make it safer
Fishersniffshisfarts
2:24
NV leg failed to take up ballpark bill in regular session, D-controlled leg will not put bill on agenda for special session and Gov can't do anything about it ... I should just sell and hope everyone forgets about me, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
without knowing much about Nevada politics, I wouldn't read a ton into the lack of a special session just yet. I imagine that this is less a principled opposition to the A's moving to Las Vegas than a means of getting Fisher to lower his ask before a bill can be considered. Which, good on LV and LOLA's
Jason
2:28
Where would you rank Corbin Carroll in terms of early season MVP candidates? I imagine he's behind Acuña and Freeman for sure, but after that it seems like he has an outside shot if he/the team continue to perform.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
I think you'd have to put Sean Murphy and Mookie Betts into the conversation as well, and Arraez is going to get support if he's chasing .400. But right now Carroll looks like he belongs in the discussion
Fletcher
2:29
Does the tightening of the range of framing impact in recent years affect how you consider the massive framing values that Posey, Lucroy, Molina, etc put up in '08-14ish? Should they be getting credited that much for being good framers in an era when teams were playing Ryan Doumit and other atrocious framers generating historic negative value that had to be offset leaguewide?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
it's context to be aware of, not unlike how Babe Ruth and Honus Wagner and even Willie Mays dominated their leagues in WAR. you're measuring a player's distance from the group, and the decreasing extremes are evidence of the quality of play rising over time.
Jasper
2:31
More probable: Rays 10-game losing streak or A's 10-game winning streak?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
The former. Even very good teams have bad luck and slumps sometimes
Las Vegas A's
2:32
Hey, the Nevada legislative session ended without a ballpark bill for Las Vegas, and governor and speaker of the House are at odds over whether a stadium bill will be considered in special session. Think maybe the A's organization screwed themselves over? (Am I wrong to be enjoying this?)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
I'm not sure whether the A's actually screwed themselves over yet, but you should buy the biggest spoon you can to eat this up for the moment.
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:33
There is a stirring discussion on Sporer's discord on whether DeGrom is HOF worthy or not, and it's...uhh...pretty divided lol.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
In the spring of 2021 I made a case that he could be a Koufaxian exception (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jacob-degrom-might-be-blazing-his-way-to-c...). That owed a lot to his ZiPS projections for his ages 33-41 seasons: 76-44, 3.25 ERA, 182 starts, 28.7 WAR. Since then — 2 1/3 seasons later — he's made 32 starts and added 6.7 WAR and the remaining career projections have come down.
2:39
and he ... doesn't have 20 remaining starts anymore.
2:40
i don't think i'd vote for the "current career projection" line above
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