JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/4/24

Jay Jaffe

2:01

Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of June!

2:02

We just posted my piece on Aaron Judge turning himself around after a season-opening slump: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aaron-judge-is-slumping-no-more/

Yesterday I wrote about Luis Severino's resurgence https://blogs.fangraphs.com/luis-severino-is-in-a-better-place-than-la...

2:03

My lunch just arrived as this chat began so please bear with me for a few minutes as I get some nourishment

Gerald H

2:04

Opening day 2025….what team do you think Juan Soto is on?

Jay Jaffe

2:06

I'd say it's either the Yankees or the Mets, with the Giants probably the third team I'd name but their current regime's precariousness probably working against them.

Tim

2:07

Are we staring down another mlb lockout in 2026/2027? Already hearing rumors about it… will the league actually miss games this time?

Jay Jaffe

2:08

I get asked this every single chat. I'm really not sure why it's worth dwelling upon — I have no control over it, you have no control over it, and nobody who does have control over it is going to do much up until we're approaching a deadline.

Human nature, I guess! But no, i don't think there will end up being games missed (as opposed to rescheduled as in 2022).

Gm Speak

2:11

Is the Blue Jays and Astros Gm's saying there is no chance they are going to sell there good players at the deadline just lip service or are they really going to be that stubborn? Blue Jays especially being 13 games out of first.

Jay Jaffe

2:15

i think it's mostly just public relations posturing; nobody wants their fans to start tuning out and looking to next year, and both still have shots at the Wild Card at the very least. The Jays aren't going to win the division but they're only 5 games back in the Wild Card race, the Astros are 7 games back via both routes

sodo mojo

2:16

Do the Mariners need to trade for a bat in the short term or do they wait until the deadline? Since the calendar flipped to May they are league average by WRC does that give them pause to see which of their struggling bats rebounds?

Jay Jaffe

2:19

While I'm sure they (and you) would like a quick fix, the reality is that at this time there fewer teams willing to trade the kind of players who could be available in late July, and a GM who's selling would probably have to be bowled over to make a deal. Not everybody is playing up to their capability but the Mariners' bats do seem to be trending in the right direction, and being in first place buys him some time.

2:19

A full season at this rate (around 9 WAR) has to seal the Cooperstown deal for Judge right?
It would put his WAR7 at almost 50. The only position players with that kind of peak are either excluded for other reasons (Bonds, ARod, Shoeless Joe), waiting for the call (Pujols, Trout, Betts) or inner circle Hall guys.

Jay Jaffe

2:21

I wouldn't say it seals the deal, because longevity is still the primary driver of who gets elected to the Hall of Fame, and Judge doesn't even have 1,000 hits, let alone the 2,000 that has been a bright-line test for BBWAA candidates for the past half-century

2:23

That said, yes, Judge is looking good on the advanced-stat front, with a 44.5 peak score (WAR7) and counting; his 3.9 bWAR is already his seventh-best season, and so every additional win he adds counts towards improving that, and adding a full point to his JAWS. Due to his late start, he's going to be a unique case anyway, but he's going to need to bulk up his career numbers before he assures himself of a spot in Cooperstown.

Tjf167

2:25

What $ number does a reasonable Volpe extension start at? Feels like a high ceiling but lowish floor player. $110mm with a few FA years?

Jay Jaffe

2:28

that's a better question for Dan Szymborski but the Andres Gimenez seven-year, $106.5 million extension from last year comes to mind as a starting point, with adjustments for inflation and NY. Gimenez was at 2.106 years of service time — not quite Super Two-eligible — as he headed into his age-24 season. Volpe will be at 2.000 year as he does the same next spring.

Tjf167

2:30

Are the days of big first basemen FA deals over? It doesn't seem like Alonso will ever get the $150mm he turned down, and with 1 dimensional guys like Torkleson (busting) and Vlad Jr (regressing), it just seems like there should be a lot of skitishness.

Jay Jaffe

2:32

I wouldn't close the door on another one ever happening but right now, there's no obvious recipient of one, and if I had to throw a dart as far as who to keep an eye on, it would probably be the Red Sox's Triston Casas. But that point is still a long way off and he's got work to do to push his asking price into the $150M range.

brad penny for your thoughts

2:32

how "big of a deal" do you find the Tucupita Marcano ban? how likely do you think more bettors will be found in MLB?

Jay Jaffe

2:36

Anytime you've got a player banned for life it's a big deal. I don't know that another is imminent but in the wake of the Ippei Mizuhara/Shohei Ohtani investigation, I've heard lots of rumors about athletes gambling through illegal bookmakers, and if baseball ever gets to the bottom of it, I wouldn't be surprised if we see suspensions more like the one-year ones given to minor leaguers.

Frankly, I think there should be a blanket ban on professional athletes gambling on sports, and you have to be pretty ****ing stupid to risk your career on the type of money at stake through either legal or illegal betting.

RAGBRAI

2:37

As pitchers are pitching fewer innings (impacting other stats) and hitters are hitting less HRs (impacting other stats), do we see those former benchmark numbers become meaningless to HOF entry.

Jay Jaffe

2:39

They're not meaningless — they're still there as reference points — but it's going to take Hall of Fame voters adjusting to the reality of changing times before they fully concede that they have to look beyond win, hit, and homer totals when it comes to most candidates.

Christian

2:40

Hi Jay! With the integration of Negro League stats into the MLB record and increased awareness of lesser-known NeL stars, do you see any Negro Leaguers who might find their way into the Hall of Fame soon?

Jay Jaffe

2:44

Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball players, managers and executives will be eligible for the 2025 Classic Baseball Era Committee ballot, but they'll be directly competing for space and votes with pre-1980 AL/NL players, managers, and execs, and the ballot can only contain eight candidates in all. I'm hopeful that somebody will break through but it's going to be a challenge to break out of such a crowded field. I would have much preferred to have a Negro Leagues/Black Baseball Era Committee ballot voted upon by experts.

gila monster

2:45

Luis Gil bumpday. He’s been on fire, do you think it’s legit?

Jay Jaffe

2:47

yes, he's legit, which isn't to say that I envision him continuing to pitch in a way that earns him Cy Young votes. he's got some impressive stuff and he's done a fantastic job of seizing the opportunity. I hope that he's able to continue pitching well after whatever slowdown the Yanks impose upon him so as not to overwork him.

Zach

2:48

Loved your Judge piece. One thing I've noticed that no one is talking about is that a couple weeks ago he finished off the best 50 game rolling xwOBA in the statcast era, and he currently has the best 100 game rolling xwOBA in the statcast era. Seems absolutley insane to me.

Jay Jaffe

2:50

Wow, I missed that facet but it hardly surprises me. Given his plate discipline, power, and max-EV force, some Judge stretch seemed likely to be the top one. But as I showed in the piece, there's a case to be made he's as hot as he's ever been, or pretty damn close.

wheelhouse

2:50

if the 2024 yankees are fake, what will the reason be

Jay Jaffe

2:51

We're all inside Tommy Westphall's snow globe.

Tacoby Bellsbury

2:51

On this day two months from now, where do you suspect Pete Alonso will be playing?

Jay Jaffe

2:52

Tampa Bay

2:53

After reading Dan's article about Eduard Julien's demotion, it may not be that justifiable purely in terms of performance, but given that the AAA team is at home this week (so Julien doesn't need to actually move anywhere, just take a different highway from home), do you think there's anything to be gained by simply saying "go play 6 games in St. Paul and for God's sake, just swing the dang bat" in an effort to bust his slump or change his approach?

Jay Jaffe

2:54

That and a means of navigating a roster crunch (welcome back, Royce Lewis!)

Sanford

2:55

Please do to Pete Alonso what you did to Aaron Judge. Thanks!

Jay Jaffe

2:56

I'll probably write about him at some point but nothing imminent

slumppy

2:56

At what point does MLB step in to try and do something about the offense? It has been so bad overall this year. Currently it is the only of the big American sports that doesn't seem to get and cater the rules to increase offense since that is what the general public wants.

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