You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/3/22
powered byJotCast
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:00
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Friday chat! A bit of housekeeping before I dive in...
2:02
Today I've got a piece on Joc Pederson's non-fantasy football exploits, mainly based upon his pulverizing of baseballs https://blogs.fangraphs.com/joc-pedersons-giant-step-forward
2:03
Yesterday I took a look at Noah Syndergaard's new-look approach https://blogs.fangraphs.com/new-look-syndergaard-struggles-in-return-t... and earlier this week I checked in on Dominic Smith's demotion https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dominic-smiths-slide-sends-him-back-to-tri... and a rough weekend for the White Sox https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/underachieving-white-sox-drop-keuchel-...
There will be no chat in this spot next week as it's the last day of school for my daughter, but the week after that, I'll be rappin' at ya from Cape Cod!
2:04
Oh, and I spoke to the great Jayson Stark about the late, great Roger Angell for this week's FanGraphs Audio podcast! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-jayson-stark-on-roger-ange...
And now, on with the show...
A Boy Named Yu
2:05
What's for lunch?  I'm trying a new local Mexican place that had a crazy lunch special of 4 enchiladas (1 beef, 1 chicken, 1 cheese, 1 bean) for $5.99.  Hopefully it's up to grade and I don't get sick...
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
I got falafel from a nearby place called Hummus, Inc. I ate a metric ****ton of meat last weekend during my college reunion festivities and have tried to go lighter this week, with variable results.
A Boy Named Yu
2:07
Any chance Willson Contreras doesn't get traded now with how well he's been so far this season?  It'll be a sad day for this Cubs fan as that would only leave Hendricks left from the 2016 title team...
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
It doesn't sound like the Cubs have been keen on extending him, so I'd imagine that he's likely to be traded. Par for the course under the current regime, as they've been pretty thorough in their teardown. I'm sure they'd trade Hendricks if he were pitching better.
Bad Bill
2:09
Does the record-setting battery longevity of Wainwright/Molina give Waino a shot at the Hall of Fame, since Molina is almost certain to make it?  Or is his objective qualification (to the extent that JAWS, etc., are objective) still too weak?  I'm seeing echoes of Trammell/Whitaker here.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
IMO it's an interesting point in their favor but hardly one that on its own justifies election. Trammell and Whitaker (both HOF-worthy) broke the games-as-teammates record previously held by George Brett (an obvious HOFer) and Frank White (a very good 2B but clearly non-HOF). Wainwright is a stronger candidate than Wright, but with only 2,434 innings, no Cy Youngs, little black ink, and a modest S-JAWS, I don't regard him as Hallworthy and I don't think many other voters will either.
Vermonty
2:13
Firing Girardi is not going to the Phillies OF into a bunch of Willie Mays'
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:15
Girardi didn't build this roster or the weak farm system underlying it. Surely there are things he could have done here and there that might have applied a few band-aids to the current situation, and maybe another manager could have gotten better results, but the team's shortcomings were obvious and too big to ignore. Yet they pushed on nonetheless, and so shouldn't be surprised that it came to this.
Sullen in San Diego
2:15
I still think it's possible my club trades Hosmer this summer. Am I nuts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
In the abstract, selling high on a player who has struggled for most of the past four years makes perfect sense, and A.J. Preller is an aggressive enough GM that he might be the guy to do it. But Hosmer is very popular among teammates, and trading him carries risk as well. From my May 3 piece on him (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/after-years-of-struggle-in-san-diego-eric-...):

"[H]e’s been a popular player in the clubhouse even in lean times, and for a team that’s had its share of internal problems in recent years, trading a player whom The Athletic’s Dennis Lin recently called “a revered teammate and, especially for younger major leaguers, a steadying presence” is a huge risk.
Color me skeptical that the Padres deal him now; this strikes me as a move that's more likely to be made in the offseason if he can complete a strong year
John
2:19
This Yordan Alvarez deal makes a great deal of sense for both parties right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
The guy can f'ing hit, and he's had injury problems, so at first glance this makes sense. It's worth a closer look, and I'll probably be the one to look into it for Monday
Mucho
2:22
Andrew McCutchen’s slump/season so far: mostly bad luck or cause for concern?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
His batted ball stats are similar to last year, but his walk rate is way down, and his chase and swing rates are way up. I know I've cited this article a million times in the early season but it fits the classic pattern of what Eno Sarris suggested was a batter pressing https://theathletic.com/928555/2019/04/17/sarris-how-bryce-harper-and-...
Guest
2:23
Cincy low-key has a ton of advanced SP talent. Should they try to extend Castillo or cash in and trade him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
The Reds have had strong rotations for the past several years and should have worked hard to build around a core. I don't know that Castillo is in a spot where trading him is going to change the direction of an org that's adrift — he'll have less than 1.5 seasons remaining before free agency come August, so yeah, i'd try to sign him
Ben Affleck
2:26
How does Goldie's HOF case stack up? Is he a first ballot guy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
He's not there yet — few guys are at age 34 — but he's building a solid case for himself.

 First Base (24th):
    53.6 career WAR | 42.2 7yr-peak WAR | 47.9 JAWS | 5.7 WAR/162
  Average HOF 1B (out of 23):
    65.5 career WAR | 42.1 7yr-peak WAR | 53.8 JAWS | 4.9 WAR/162

He's probably going to improve that peak score this year, as he's at 2.9 bWAR now and his 7th-best season is 4.7. he's got strong postseason numbers but has never gotten further than a Division Series, so a playoff run would help his cause, too
2:30
Correction on Alvarez: Ben Clemens beat me to the punch and will write about him.
Randy
2:30
Is Jose Trevino another Cashman find? 90 wrc+ gets him to what, 3/4 WAR?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
The post-Posada Yankees have generally been way ahead of the curve in employing catchers good at pitch framing, and so it's easy to understand why they went out and got Trevino, who by our numbers was 8.8 runs above average in that department in part-time work (713 innings) last year. I don't think anybody expected him to hit, and I wouldn't expect his 114 wRC+ to continue. I think he's probably going to come in at 3+ WAR, which would be a big boost for the Yankees.
Joe
2:32
Long term outlooks on Jameson Taillon / Nestor Cortes?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
It's very tough to project pitchers long-term when they improve so rapidly ad then disappear so suddenly due to injuries, but if you're asking whether what the pair in question is doing is for real, I think it very much is. That's not to say that they're going to keep pitching like Cy Young candidates, but these aren't 4/5 starters we're talking about
Key Flaw
2:35
Happy Friday Jay! After you discussed it in your chat a while ago, I bought the Pot Belly Giardeniera (from Amazon) and it is really good! Except I really don't like it on a sandwich, but absolutely love it over rice. The olives and the peppers (the taste and fresh crunchiness) really makes it. What else do you think it would be good with (I need more excuses to eat it and add it to things)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
Happy to help! It's good stuff. I've never tried it on pasta but i'd bet it works there too. I like the rice idea and will have to try it like that sometime
A Boy Named Yu
2:36
I regret to admit that I had never heard of Roger Angell.  If you could pick one collection of his for me to start with, which one would it be?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
Wow! Are you in for a treat. The Summer Game, his first book (1972) is just so unbelievably good and groundbreaking that it's tough to suggest anything else, but the collections (Once More Around the Park and Game Time) have good cross-sections of his work if you'd prefer to dabble.
John
2:39
Thanks for all the great work you! Just curious, what is the most unpleasant thing about your job?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
I'd be hard-pressed to call anything about this truly unpleasant, but long commutes to the ballpark limit the on-site coverage I do, and the gap between what teams are doing and what the public has access to is growing. A lot of the analysis I do winds up being more labor-intensive than it should be, even things like collating multiple searches from Baseball Savant, and so it takes awhile to identify certain points of inflection worth highlighting
Kendrys Morales and the Big Steppers
2:43
Hi Jay. The A's own MLB's longest hit streak, having not been no hit since 1991. They also have the league worst batting average this year. What do you think is the probability that the A's get no hit this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
It seems reasonable that the odds would catch up to them sooner or later, and right now, with their current roster, it wouldn't surprise me if they wind up on the short end of a no-hitter.
Load More Messages
Connecting…