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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/17/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:02
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the Cape Cod edition of my Friday chat, as I am nearing the halfway point of my stay in Wellfleet.
2:04
This week has been a mostly working one. Today I wrote about the two no-hit bids that were broken up in the ninth, along with some history https://blogs.fangraphs.com/miles-mikolas-and-tyler-anderson-both-had-.... A friend reminds me that I missed a chance for a Roger Angell tie-in with his coverage of Mike Mussina's near-perfecto from 2001 https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2001/09/24/legends-of-the-fens
2:05
Yesterday I covered the dreadful Tigers offense, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-historically-bad-offense-is-just-one-of..., and earlier this week I hit the Braves' winning streak https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/acunas-return-is-just-one-piece-of-bra... and Walker Buehler's injury https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/walker-buehlers-three-months-off
I have yet to see a Cape Cod League game — the plan is to do so Tuesday, but I'm just back from the Edward Gorey House in Yarmouth Port, which I highly recommend
2:06
2:07
It's from a drawing done for Sports Illustrated in 1983 https://catalogue.swanngalleries.com/Lots/auction-lot/BASEBALL-EDWARD-...
And with that, let's get on with the show
jazzrunner12
2:07
Do you think Buster Posey's momentum for the Hall will renew focus on Munson and Freeman's cases.  Munson seems a particularly good analogy since his career was also cut short.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:10
Maybe but I doubt it. The changes to the Era Committee process (covered here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hall-of-fame-shakes-up-its-era-committ...) are going to crowd out all but the most obvious candidates, since only eight can be considered per slate. I think it's going to be very hard to convince the Historical Overview Committee that such longshots should be in their respective groups of eight.
jazzrunner12
2:10
Is there any hope for Joey Gallo & Aaron Hicks the second half of the year?  Yankee fans have tar and feathers ready for both.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
I have far more hope for Gallo, whose .486 xSLG and 19.3% barrel rate suggest he's hitting the ball considerably harder than his slash numbers show (including his.354 SLG). Even so, he's got to cut down on the strikeouts because he's just not making enough contact. Hicks' quality of contact has been dreadful, so I don't harbor much hope for him
The Batman
2:14
I was looking at Sandy Alcantara's page when I realized that for every year of his career, no matter how many innings he has pitched, his ERA has been lower than every other estimator like FIP, xFIP, xERA, and SIERA. Even Marco Gonzales, my previously considered king of beating estimators, has had years where his ERA underperformed. Beyond Alcantara being amazing, what would lead to something like that? Because it seems...unusual.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:15
Offhand, strong defensive support and good performance with men on base (and/or in scoring position) will generally lead to a pitcher outdoing his ERA estimators. I haven't looked closely enough at Alcantara to tell you what's going on there.
John Olerud's Helmet
2:15
Hello Mr Jay! The HOF is awesome of course but i want a museum that recognizes players who had excellent careers but fall short. My first inductions my man John Olerud, Ray Durham and Garret Anderson.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
Stop by the Hall of Very Good, in Utica, or the Hall of Solidly Above Average For a Long Time, in Albany
Guest
2:16
Miguel Cabrera still has another year left on his contract. But Detroit is going nowhere fast, and he has nothing left to prove in the game. What are the chances he hangs it up at the end of this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
I don't see it happening, since he's actually having a superficially better season than at any time in the past few years. Maybe with a regime change (merited given Al Avila's lack of success) and a generous buyout he hangs 'em up but I don't get the sense that's in the offing.
I did hear a rumor this week about a potential Hall of Famer who is ready to retire. Can't say much more than that right now, i'm afraid.
Dookie
2:18
Butter or mayo on the lobster?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
I generally prefer butter but for lunch today I had a cold lobster roll with mayo at P.J's, as it was the only option and I had a craving.
Zach
2:20
Is Alejandro Kirk a top-3 catcher in baseball right now? He's an excellent hitter and his defense has been surprisingly great.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
We know the large lad can hit, and his defensive metrics are good but he does DH a lot (16 games this year, 34 at catcher). I'm not ready to say that two months elevates him into the top three when he's only 10th in WAR and sixth in wRC+ over the past calendar year, to use one cutoff.
2:23
I believe Justin Choi is going to write about Kirk for next week.
Who's Fabio?
2:23
Happy Friday Jay - are you buying into Santiago Espinal as a 4-5 win player?  Through 63 games he's got 2 - are there holes that the casual eye (mine) does not see?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
He's produced 4.0 WAR in 155 games over the past two seasons, including good defense, and while he outdid his statcast numbers considerably last year they're in line this year. I'm skeptical he's a true 5-win player but 4ish seems realistic
Honkus Wagner
2:26
any momentum on Stieb to the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
As I said above, the format change is a major blow to outsider candidates, particularly those who haven't gotten on a ballot before.
Honkus Wagner
2:27
Chances of Helton making the HOF? how much impact do you think Walker getting in has there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
He got 52% in his fourth year of eligibility so I think it's a question of when, not if. The Walker election certainly opened the door for him. I guessed 2024 for him in my five-year outlook here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dialing-it-down-a-notch-the-next-five-year...
Wink
2:29
Jesse Winker is having the worst year by far of his 5 year career. Walks and SO numbers are near his career best, yet he has been God awful. Any insight?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
offhand, he went from a park that was hugely favorable for lefties to one not so favorable, and picked the wrong time to start hitting more balls in the air.  His quality of contact numbers are grim. probably worth a closer look, especially as he just signed a modest extension
Dookie
2:31
Seriously tho, wtf with the Royals not calling up Vinnie or Pratto?  Is that the worst run organization behind the Rockies?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
I'm getting the sense that the Dayton Moore era has run its course
Marshall
2:32
What are reasonable expectations for Tony Gonsolin going forward?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
I'd be shocked if he went much past 120-130 innings this year given his past workloads, but as it is, his rest-of-season ZiPS projection has him finishing with a 2.63 ERA in 119.1 innings, and his ROS Depth Charts projection has him finishing at 3.05 in 150.1 innings. Pretty impressive
The Dude
2:36
Is it possible neither O’Neill nor Carlson are long term starters for the Cards in the corners?  Last year looks like a big outlier for O’Neill and Carlson just looks super vanilla
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
They've both taken steps backwards this year, but they're young, cheap, and homegrown, and the Cardinals aren't going to give up on them without trying to fix them.
Yanks On Fire
2:37
Saw a note that if the Yankees played .500 ball the rest of the year, they'd finish with 96 wins. Leaving aside the postseason for now, how great is this Yankees team? Buy or sell this as an all-time regular season great team? Is there anything that's holding them back from actual greatness?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
It's a very impressive team, though I'm not yet ready to put it with the 1998 one given its obvious weaknesses (Gallo and Hicks, for example). They do look like a championship contender right now, though
John
2:41
I see several scouting blurbs – especially about HS or similar aged players – that include “room to add strength.” Besides being a euphemism, that strikes me as odd. Is the idea that it’s more advantageous to have “room to add strength” than to actually have strength? I’m picturing a scout saying 8-10 years ago that Tristan McKenizie had room to add strength. Yeah, well, he still does. Sometimes it never comes.
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