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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/14/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Hello and welcome to the almost-on-vacation edition of my Thursday chat. I'm writing this from Wellfleet, Massachusetts, where I'll be spending the next week before heading to Denver for our FanGraphs staff trip and reader meetup. Let's see if the wifi can hold out for another 90 minutes
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
12:02
If the Orioles and Mets combined into a single team, would that team be good enough to get to the playoffs in the NL East? AL East?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
Without thinking too hard about it, I'll go ahead and say no. Other than Machado, Britton and maybe Chase Sisco, what from the Orioles would even be usesful to the Mets right now?
Steve
12:04
Sounds like expansion is inevitable. If MLB does go to 32, would you prefer 4 8-team divisions or 8 4-team divisions? Do you want an expanded playoff format?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
I think I prefer 4 x 8 teams to 8 x 4 but either way, there would probably be 8 teams in each league making the playoffs, which I don't love. But it gets so messy if you don't do it as a function of 4.
CamdenWarehouse
12:06
How much input do teams have on how their games are broadcast? I find it interesting that the Orioles appear to have one of the least advanced approaches and also have broadcasts that favor stats like pitcher Wins, Quality Starts and BA w/ RISP while mostly ignoring sabermetrics.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
I can't say I know a ton about it but it almost certainly varies from team to team, as some teams own their broadcast outlets or are at least majority owners (thinking of Yankees and Mets), and some are broadcast by Fox or Comcast or other RSNs. I imagine teams provide some input but the outlet is going to make the final call based on its sense of its audience.
Chavez
12:09
Matt Kemp's slide...completely asinine and indefensible, or old school grit?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
if I understand the rule correctly, the catcher can't impede the runner's path to the plate unless he has the ball, and Chirinos had the ball in time. Kemp was overly aggressive — esp. if he'd known about Chirinos' past concussion issues — but probably within the rules. It was old school, but I'm not going to laud the grit there.
greg
12:11
Do you feel there should be any changes in how a cap is chosen for or by a player for his HoF plaque?  Seems a little arbitrary right now.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
The player has input but the Hall has the final say to prevent somebody from pulling a Wade Boggs. I'm not sure I see the problem here.
Robbie
12:12
With the angels becoming more and more decimated by injuries should they punt on the year and sell of what they can at the deadline?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
Given that they were 3 1/2 games out of a playoff spot less than a week ago, I don't see any reason for the Angels to make a decision on that until after the All-Star break. Besides, the only pending free agent who's going to bring back anything besides a lottery ticket is Garret Richards.

Whoever is dealing is going to wait until potential suitors are at their most desperate to acquire talent, and that's on or around July 31. You just don't see a ton of impact moves before then particularly for teams on the fringes of playoff races.
Pio
12:17
Now that he's the all-time international hits leader, Beltre is a lock squared, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
I guess? He was a lock with 3,000 hits, barring some Cano-like shocker.
Xolo
12:18
How's Adrian Gonzalez's HOF case?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
what Hall of Fame case? The guy barely has over 2,00 hits, was never an MVP, and is 42nd in JAWS at the position. If it's over, it's been a very nice career but nothing that would even make me think twice about checking his name.

Guys whose careers peter out in their mid-30s seldom have anything but the most tenuous HOF cases. Grich, Andruw, Santo, Sandberg are the non-Koufax exceptions, and you can see that it's been an uphill climb for all but Ryno from that group.
Zonk
12:21
Where do you stay on the Cape?  We stay in So. Wellfleet, and usually catch games at Orleans or Brewster because they rae close....what parks do you recommend?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
We're in the Drummer Cove area. My wife's family has been renting places in this general vicinity since she was very young, and i think this is my 5th-6th (?) trip up here since we've been together (missed a couple years due to the book).

As for Cape Cod League games, I've only ever been to Brewster but I think the plan is to go to Orleans on Saturday — that's the one everyone says is the must-see stop for CCL games.
Funkhouser
12:24
Hi Jay! Who is more appealing to you offensively over the next 5 years, Gleyber or Tatis Jr and why?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
Gleyber, if only because he's already demonstrated with incredible conviction that he can handle MLB pitching, while Tatis is still in Double A and might be a year away (Super Two 2019?). Not to take anything away from Tatis, who could be very valuable if he can stick at SS AND reach his ceiling as a hitter.
Ronnie
12:27
Roy Halladay has 65 bWAR & -14 DRS. Mark Buehrle has 60 bWAR & 88 DRS. Are those DRS numbers already accounted for in the WAR totals, or is it possible that Buehrle provided more value over his career than Halladay?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
I believe bWAR does not incorporate pitcher fielding into its calculations, as it's already in there as part of the run prevention + team defensive support adjustment.

The difference between 60 and 65b WAR itself is not much, and it's very subject to our assumptions about the amount of credit we give pitchers with regards to the defensive split. And that's without considering leverage or quality of opponent, However, given the 2 pitchers in question, there's also about a 15-win gap in 7-year peak score (50.6 to 35.9) despite Doc having about 500 fewer innings total in his career. I'm pretty sure we can say he was the more valuable of the two in the sense of HOF cases.
Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs
12:32
If the Mets go into fire sale mode, trading DeGrom, Thor, Cespedes, etc, do they give Tebow a cup of coffee?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
Ugh, quite possibly.
Nick
12:33
Is there a measurable skill involved with winning a ton of one-run games like the Mariners or is it 100% pure dumb luck?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
I wrote about this the other day. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-al-west-and-one-run-success/. Significant correlation regarding bullpen WAR and 1-run success, and I think there was a 2013 study that suggested team BB, K (both pitching) and ISO (hitting) had some connection.
Nick
12:36
Is Edwin Diaz the best closer in baseball?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
If Kenley hasn't gotten his groove fully back yet, then yes, that's not an unreasonable assertion but I'd take Josh Hader's fireman work over either if I had to choose right now (while crossing my fingers that he could withstand the workload ROS).
Scott
12:37
Will Kevin Brown's recent incident have any impact on his Hall chances or is it already too much of a lost cause?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
I don't see it having any impact on his HOF case, as it has no connection to his career. I'm sure he'll get a look in the Today's Game committee or its equivalent at some point but I don't think his chances are very good.
Andy
12:38
Okay.  To save me from googling... What's the issue with Wade Boggs' HoF cap?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
There was as story that Boggs agreed to go into the HOF as a Devil Ray for a price when he signed with the team, maybe $1 million. The Hall overruled him and publicly reasserted its authority in this area, and Boggs has denied the story as well.
Bort
12:40
Bat flipping: yea or nay?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
I'm pro-celebration as long as it doesn't get too confrontational. Let these players be themselves and understand that "playing the game the right way" has everything to do with where one learned "the right way" — different cultural norms dictate that. Requiring everyone to act like they're on the 1949 Yankees is not the norm.
Tax Lawyer
12:42
Do you ever struggle to reconcile the fact that our beloved pastime is also essentially, at least at the prof level, just a tax shelter for 30 billionaires who don’t want to pay back the society that facilitated their enormous wealth?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
No, because there are CEOS and other business men everywhere enriching themselves to an even greater degree by giving us stuff that is either less useful to a happy, healthy life or by actively working to make the world worse. What's the riches of a sports owner compared to the likes of Sam Walton or Martin Shkreli or the Orange Ape in the White House?
Bernie
12:46
Winning 1-0 in Game 7 of the World Series, Trout, Betts, and Freeman are coming up. What one pitcher do you want on the mound?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
Vintage Mariano Rivera.
Moltar
12:46
So I take it you're in wellfleet - Moby Dick's, or go south for Arnold's? My family always stayed in Eastham by the bay.
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