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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 6/13/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:03
Good afternoon, folks and welcome to a special edition of my Tuesday chat. I'm a few days into the annual family trip to Wellfleet  — this is the seventh year in a row that my wife, my daughter, and my mother-in-law have rented this house — and the wi-fi is a bit dodgier than back in Brooklyn, but I always like to do a chat from here if I can.
2:04
As it's a two-week trip, it's something of a working vacation, with the work front-loaded. Today I did a piece on Nick Castellanos' rebound from a dismal 2022 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nick-castellanos-is-mashing-again
Yesterday I took a look at the impact of Pete Alonso's hand injury https://blogs.fangraphs.com/skidding-mets-lose-pete-alonso-when-they-c...
Liam
2:05
Making it to any CCBL games while you're out there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:05
Yes, we're planning to get down to at least one Orleans Firebirds games. I think we have four to choose from in terms of their home games. Haven't looked at rosters or fully sketched out a calendar yet.
mike
2:06
The Twins seem to have painted themselves into a corner here, and just need to hope Buxton and CC and Polanco hit.....Kepler hasn't hit for three years, would you move on?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
They're committed to Buxton and Correa long-term, and when you do that, you have to be prepared for the occasional lag in production but hope they eventually approximate something closer to their projected capability. As for Kepler, he's been a fixture in the lineup since 2016 and still has just two seasons of above-average production to show for it, and those came in 2019-20. It's past time to move on, and worth seeing what Matt Wallner can do even if he does have some holes in his game.
Guest
2:12
Is Joey Bart worth anything that could upgrade the Giants roster?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
Doubt it, at least if you're thinking short-term. As a catcher who's supposed to be able to hit and has five years of control remaining, he has some value but he's struggled in multiple major league opportunities at this point is more of a project than a prospect. He'd probably bring back something along those lines — a lower-level arm or two, or maybe somebody for the fringes of the major league roster.
Steve
2:16
How common is it to have a world champion team (baseball) with no hall of famers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
not uncommon though it can take a long time to shake out. The 1981 and '88 Dodgers don't have one unless you count manager Tommy Lasorda (and Don Sutton's cameo in the latter season, though he was gone well before the playoffs). The 2002 Angels don't have one, and the '06 Cardinals didn't until Scott Rolen was elected this year. The 2008 Phillies still don't, who knows if we'll ever see one from the 2010, '12, and '14 Giants besides Bochy, or the '16 Cubs...
JT
2:19
While I agree with the release of Bass, should I be depressed that had been a star player (let alone a politician), the comments would have skated, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
I don't know that to be true, and I'd prefer to think that the Blue Jays messing up the Bass situation in spectacular fashion is an outlier, with many other teams more quick to call a player to the carpet and  hold him accountable.
catcher hell
2:21
there's no way Willson Contreras can continue to be this bad all year, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
It doesn't look good but a peek at his Statcast expected numbers shows he's 51 points short of his xBA, and 101 short of his xSLG. He's had some terrible luck, and the Cardinals really haven't helped him settle in. Talk about messing up in spectacular fashion
Bandon Brelt
2:23
are you buying the Marcell Ozuna resurgence? since 5/1 he's 4th in wRC+ among qualified hitters after being bottom five in April
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
it will take more than 6 weeks of good hitting to convince that a guy is past two full years of absolutely stinking on ice.
Dan the Man McGRAWWWW
2:24
If Arraez is able to hit .400 for the year, how much would that increase his hall chances? Not that there is much there to begin with but I have to imagine it would stand out as a once in a lifetime achievement
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
Eh, his Hall of Fame case and anyone else's is still primarily going to be build upon career totals, and we're talking about a player with fewer than 600 career hits and 13 bWAR. .400 could make a difference if he's a borderline candidate but won't get him there by itself.
Tacoby Bellsbury
2:27
The Cardinals have the worst record in the NL. How do you see the rest of the season going for them?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
At some point I think Mozeliak throws Marmol under the bus to protect his own poor roster construction, but I'd also expect the trade of an outfielder for some pitching. If I'm DeWitt I probably consider firing Mozeliak anyway because this is a spectacular mess.
The Better Upton
2:30
How does Justin Upton compare to the average HoF outfielder? I recall some excellent years in Atlanta and in Arizona.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
Even as a player who reached the majors at 19 and put together a great season at 23, he never really put together a run that suggested he was Hall-bound; he averaged 2.8 WAR in the five seasons after that 5.5-WAR campaign, and after 2018, he couldn't stay on the field or above replacement level due to injuries.
O’stradamus
2:37
Is it just me or is it odd that the O’s continue to be hesitant with promoting their top prospects?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
Maybe a little but perhaps not as much as some would suggest, at least if we're talking just the past two seasons. You want your prospects not to be overwhelmed at the major league level, and for the most part, Adley Rutschmann and Gunnar Henderson have been quite successful since arriving; the latter had a rough April but the Orioles didn't farm him out. There was obviously a chorus to promote Grayson Rodriguez but he's now back in Triple-A after getting hit for a 7.15 ERA.
Tyler Wells
2:41
Is my start to the season legit?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
Pretty legit. ERA's more than a run better than the FIP, but it's in line with the xERA. Alex Eisert wrote about his new cutter and remixed arsenal here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/wells-and-kells-a-cutter-case-study/
Cubs
2:44
Are the Cubs actually building towards anything? The farm is middling with nothing but depth pieces. The young guys on the MLB roster don't look like key pieces on a good team. Ownership/FO won't spend or make trades (unless its selling for 18 year olds). Fear its back to mediocre but good enough to sell bleacher tickets and beer snakes.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
They did just sign Dansby Swanson for $177 million so I don't think you can say the front office won't spend, but the roster is a real mixed bag, and they seem to be sorting through which young players can help them and which can't. I don't think the big problem is that they're not getting production out of Matt Mervis or Hayden Wesneski so much as it is that the playing time they're giving to veterans like Mancini, Taillon, and the since-departed Hosmer has been so unproductive. If you're in a rebuild, you want to see what the youngsters can do, and that can take time. Watching veterans take their playing time does no good, and the deadwood-cutting has to start there.
Captain ACAB
2:48
How do you pronounce your last name? Is it one syllable or two?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
Jaffe, rhymes with taffy.
Bedtime story
2:49
Will T. Story be at full strength when he comes back? I’m unsure of the track record for hitters after UCL repair.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
Generally they come back pretty close to full strength, though with Story figuring out what full strength may be a bit harder due to his other injuries and the Coors effect. I would expect him to be a better offensive player than the last two seasons
Marshall
2:51
Tony Gonsolin continues to be great at preventing runs, but my sense is most people in the industry don’t think he’s “for real”. I wish I knew how to look up which starters have had a better era+ 300 innings into their career, but nobody comes to mind. How good do you think he really is?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
Gonsolin is pretty darn good when he's healthy, but he's had a hard time maintaining his health, and so it's tough to trust those smaller samples especially when they produce extreme BABIPS (.177 this year! 216 career) and a wide ERA-FIP split. He seems to be a different pitcher when his fastball averages 93 or greater in an outing, versus when it slips below, which is prone to happen because of his fragility.
Gil
2:56
Following up on your Alonso piece: is performing to expected levels the best path to contention for the Mets in your eyes? Or do you foresee potential moves? Honestly, this feels like we're headed to 1992 worst team money can buy territory but I could also be a jaded Mets fan seeing the worst a team can play and deciding that is their true talent level
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
I don't think this team is anywhere close to as bad as it looks, but I don't know what you do when Verlander, Lindor and McNeil are among the biggest underproducers. You're not trading any of them, so the best you can do is tweak things around the margins — and I'm not sure how much more money you can pour into the roster without starting to burn through the prospects. Is it worth trading Ronny Mauricio for a starting pitcher?
Theoretical
3:00
If Francisco Alvarez continues to bat at or under .250 but keeps hitting home runs, how many homers would he need to get to in order to win ROTY?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
32.3
3:01
it's not going to matter because Corbin Carroll is probably the NL ROY anyway. Hell, he might be the MVP.
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