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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/9/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of the month — apologies, as I had to punt last week's due to other responsibilities.
2:04
I'm fresh off a double-whammy on the Cardinals, first a look at their slow start and puzzling set of decisions regarding Willson Contreras: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-nl-worst-cardinals-are-panicking/
...and, live as of moments ago, a closer look at Nolan Arenado's season-opening slump. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nolan-arenados-slump-adds-to-cardinals-woe...
2:05
Next up will be some words on Vida Blue
Yeah Well Hiura Towel
2:07
What are the chances Manfred & the other owners will get sick of the Athletics stadium search clown show and force Fisher to sell?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
Slim to none. Manfred has cast his lot by choosing to enable them, which reflects other owners' willingness to do so as well, in part because many of them want their own nefarious schemes enabled down the road.

But, uh, maybe they jumped the gun on that "binding agreement" in Vegas, huh? Wondering about the park factors of the Circus Circus parking lot.
Ben
2:12
For Hall of Fame purposes, are deGrom and Johan Santana pretty fair comps? Who else are guys that burned bright but just not long enough that you like?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
They're vaguely similar in that both are two-time Cy Young winners who spent a good chunk of their careers with the Mets and have/had trouble staying healthy.
2:17
But Santana piled up a lot more innings, 2025.2 to deGrom's 1356.1; the former had almost as many from 2004-09 alone. He also had three other top-five finishes in the Cy Young voting in that stretch, and was robbed in 2005, where deGrom has one other top-five finish.
2:19
Santana is 69th in S-JAWS with a much higher peak (51.7/45.0/48.3), while deGrom is 111th (44.7/39.8/42.2). I wouldn't put him ahead of guys like 2x CY winner Bret Saberhagen, or David Cone, or Dave Stieb, to focus on guys who didn't reach 3,000 innings.
Justin
2:20
Just wanted to say how fun it has been to have a healthy Ronald Acuna back in the game. So nice to have him back!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
Man, he's been great, .338/.431/.551 with 6 HR and 15 steals; his 165 wRC+ is eight points higher than before he got hurt in 2021. I still wonder about his sprint speed (81st percentile, compared to 97th pre-injury), but maybe he's just choosing not to go all out as often.
Dan
2:22
Are the Rays more good for baseball because hey everyone can be successful or bad because they are cover for teams not to spend when they really should be?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
As Abe Simpson would say, a little from Column A and a little from Column B.
2:26
On the one hand, it's great that they can compete with and sometimes beat the bigger spenders in their division. They do so many things well when it comes to talent evaluation and deployment. On the other hand, they do provide an excuse for some teams not to spend and to hope they can have a Rays-like season with their pittance of a payroll and then think that's enough to satiate fans.
Oaktown Blues
2:27
How much of Brent Rooker's breakout is real?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
That's a really good question as the guy's hitting .319/.441/.681. Most of the indicators I check when it comes to early-season breakouts, ones involving better swing decisions and better contact, suggest there's something very real about it, but I wouldn't hold my breath on his maintaining a 206 wRC+.

I believe that Esteban Rivera, our in-house swing king, is going to take a look at his mechanical adjustments soon.
Guest
2:33
Saw an article projecting Nola and Bieber to sign extensions worth about $100 mil? Is this an accurate reflection of their markets? I expected twice as much as a starting point
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
$100 million-ish (which I assume you're getting from Dan Szymborski's extensions piece here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whose-contract-extensions-should-teams-tac...) does seem a bit low but for one, but as Dan noted, both have been knocked down a bit by mediocre performances so far. Bieber additionally missed half a season due to a right shoulder injury and has another year of club control after this one, depriving him of a peak earning season.

I don't think either of them is a $200 million pitcher or even a deGrom-esque $185-million one, but i'd bet both could be around $150M if they hit the market at the right time, off strong performances and clear of health issues.
>this guy<
2:39
So, are the Cardinals players going to trust this F.O. ever again or will the decsion makers have to go? Is Willson just a bad guy or something?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
I think the obvious route here is Mozeliak firing Marmol if they don't turn it around, but if I'm DeWitt I think the former should be heading that direction too. Between this clown show and the O'Neill incident it appears that not everybody is on the same page, and if it's true that some of their already crummy pitchers don't like throwing to Contreras, then letting it play out publicly like this is letting the inmates run the asylum.
Guest
2:44
It's not in the Cardinals nature or history to re-tool. What would a mid-year re-tool look like at this point? Trade Goldschmidt for prospects and play Yepez/Baker at 1st? Trade Montgomery as a rental elsewhere? Looks like they held too long on their glut of good, but not great outfielders (other than Nootbar, who does look special).
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
I don't see that kind of housecleaning; Goldschmidt isn't going anywhere, and neither is Arenado assuming he eventually rebounds. More likely is an increased investment in starting pitching keyed by trading some of their young/controlled players, not all of whom can be the underperformers (so... Gorman? Nootbar?)
Alby
2:46
Charlie Finley ruined Vida Blue.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
That's overly simplistic, but he certainly played a role. The game's salary structure and the crush of attention that comes with being a young superstar were also major factors that keyed Blue's dissatisfaction and discomfort, but he's responsible for his own behavior and its consequences.
Mr Met
2:52
How would you explain Scherzer’s struggles? A mix of nagging injuries/old age?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
Right now it looks that way; he's lost about one mile per hour on the fastball and slider and both are getting hit. It's probably a minor mechanical thing, maybe owing to a minor health issue, but also — the drama is exhausting. Between the clock stuff and the sticky stuff ejection/suspension, he can't seem to have a normal start. He has 11.1 innings over the last calendar month, and it has to be hard to work out issues on the mound when you can't get into a prolonged rhythm.
Jason N
2:56
Who do the other owners probably hate more:  Fisher (A’s) or Cohen/Seidler (Mets/Padres)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
the latter pair for exposing their own unwillingness to spend.
mmddyyyy
2:57
Once one of the Oakland or Tampa stadium situations actually resolve, will that put more pressure on the folks in the other?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
I would think s, though as it is, Stuart Sternberg sounds as though he either expects to have some kind of deal by the end of the year or is going to look to move.
Warren
3:00
Just moved to bedstuy, any food, drink or otherwise you would recommend exploring?  Happy to see the Judge back and hopefully healthy
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
I don't know Bed Stuy very well, alas, but I do know that Peaches HotHouse has some outstanding hot chicken and other fare, and i am brokenhearted that the branch in Fort Greene closed.
mmddyyyy
3:03
The KBO talent level is below MLB, but is it closer to MLB or something like AA?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
I think it's much closer to Triple-A than Double-A; we quite often see guys who have tasted MLB but been up and down to the minors having a great deal of success there.
Dan Szymborski
3:05
Where has he gone? No chat in a month? Were they giving away free seafood down at the Harbor every Thursday?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
You'd have to ask Dan but I do know he's been busy with in-season ZiPS stuff and recently had some vacation.
Guest
3:07
With Kyle Wright and Max Fried on the shelf and limited resources to make a move, what options do the Braves have to keep their rotation afloat? Mike Soroka has been up and down in AAA and Dodd/Shuster aren't that caliber.
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