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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/31/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Good day and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. If I'm a little distracted today it's because my parents are visiting from Salt Lake City and are prone to (figuratively) tugging at my sleeve for a bit of guidance. With that in mind, let's get to it!
Duck Duck Goose
12:03
Why did I fly into the scoreboard last night?  Bad launch angle or was my exit velo too low?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:03
I'm going to go with bad eyesight on that one. Yeesh.
CJ Cron
12:04
Am I making the All-Star game? And how much better would the Angels have been with me around and Albert Pujols gone?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
I've never been much of a Cron-head, but yes, you're off to a pretty good start (.269/.332/.486, 125 wRC+, 1.0 WAR for those who can't be bothered to look it up), and yes, that's 1.2 WAR ahad of Pujols at a fraction of the cost. I'm not sure that's really All-Star caliber, though, and might suggest that catcher Wilson Ramos (.313/.356/.479) is putting together a more impressive season at a less crowded position, ASG-wise
Greg
12:08
Do you agree with Buster that less stolen bases and less hit and runs makes the game less interesting?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
I enjoy variety, and do think that baseball is better when players can show off their speed. Over the past few decades, we've learned that the break-even point for such strategies tends to be higher than previously assumed, so we're seeing fewer steals and hit-and-runs, and I think that's producing a less exciting brand of baseball. It's more fun, in particular, when two teams with contrasting strategies go head to head, but right now, that's in short supply.
THE Average Sports Fan
12:13
Are we seeing the beginning of Joey Votto slowly becoming Joe Mauer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
As I noted earlier today, in the comments to my Anthony Rizzo piece (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/anthony-rizzos-dramatic-turnaround/), since I wrote about Votto on  April 20 (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-reds-slump-has-extended-to-joey-vot...), he’s posted a 168 wRC+, three points ahead of last year, and he's up to 132 overall. I wouldn't worry too much about the performance aspect of it.

As for the way the fan base has been conditioned to resent high-salaried players on teams that cry poor — something that we've seen all too much of in the case of Mauer — ugh. Those are the real losers, the ones who can't appreciate greatness even if the great player is stuck in a lousy situation.
John
12:16
If a pitcher goes 9 innings without giving up a hit, but manages to surrender a run and loses the game, is it still considered a no-hitter?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
A no-hitter can still be in effect with a run allowed, but the game has to be completed without a hit. Rich Hill allowing a 10th-inning homer after nine no-hit innings, as he did against the Pirates last year, is not considered an official no-hitter. It's just a raw deal.
Matt
12:17
Why are the Rockies so dumb and continue to bench Dahl?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
Cue my weekly rant about not being able to understand how the Rockies apportion playing time to their outfielders and first basemen. They must be playing eight-dimensional chess in a checkers world.
Lou
12:19
Is Ross Stripling the real deal?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
Not top-10 starter level, no, but the guy is missing enough bats (59 in 48.1 innings, including 42 in 33 IP as a starter) to merit a full-time spot. He and Walker Buehler have certainly helped keep the Dodgers afloat at a time when their rotation has been decimated. not to talk out of school too much, but I believe Jeff Sullivan may be taking a look at Stripling in the near future.
Jsto
12:23
Ohtani or Torres for AL rookie of the year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
Torres has been great thus far, but If Ohtani can continue doing what he's doing — which is basically without precedent — I'm not sure how he can't win the award. That said, we've still got two-thirds of a season to go, more or less, and a lot can happen.
Brett
12:24
ROS: Hoskins or Votto?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
Votto, no hesitation. As I said, he's back to his old, productive self already, and I'll take his track record any day.
Greg
12:25
I know that Altuve is the favorite, but does Torres have a shot as a write in?  Lot's of NYY fans who can stuff the electronic ballot box.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
Torres *is* on the official ballot, so there's no need for a write-in, but voting-wise, I don't see him unseating Altuve, who's a fan favorite around the majors and not prone to any anti-Yankee sentiment.
Joe Schlmo
12:27
Is JA Happ the best starter available this deadline?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
Off the top of my admittedly crowded head, it's probably him and Cole Hamels as the top two, and cash/complication-wise, he's the easier one to obtain since Hamels has a partial no-trade list that probably requires picking up his $20 million option for next year to get around.
jack82
12:29
What's your thoughts about Darvish? Will he rebound this season? Long term?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
Wrote about Darvish recently (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yu-darvish-and-the-good-fastball/). If he's healthy – never a trivial matter for pitchers — I do think he'll turn it around. Let's not forget that he's had three teams in his ear about his mechanics and repertoire over the past 10 months, worked with three different sets of catchers and coaches, and has the language barrier to deal with, too. I know Cubs fans and the hot-take end of their beat have the red-ass about his rough start, but I think in time he'll be fine.
Big Murph
12:32
The "Elite 4" of starting pitchers should expand to 7 and include Verlander, Sevy, and Degrom, yes?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
I assume you mean Scherzer, Kershaw, Sale and Kluber as the other four? I think you could argue that guys like Strasburg, Cole and Syndergaard may be on the fringes of that upper tier, too, depending upon the timeline you're considering.
Rays
12:35
When are we going to get some recognition for putting together a group of players we knew were talented and would be able to feed off one another's positive energy (instead of being doom and gloom about Longo's departure)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
Maybe when you stop throwing nickels around like they're manhole covers? On the one hand, I respect the Rays' capacity for innovation, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't also very uncomfortable with the blatantly cost-cutting nature of many of their recent transactions and the inherently anti-labor tilt of their bullpenning experiment.
DBRuns
12:38
Can we get some love for Jose Ramirez? He's having a remarkable season that's been overshadowed by Mike Trout and Mookie Betts. With 17 career WAR at age 25, we have to be talking about a player with hall of fame chances, correct?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
Jose Ramirez is a helluva player who deserves more love, but his WAR total through age 25 (17.9 now using rWAR and the Play Index) isn't particularly noteworthy. Even if he adds another 5 wins this year via that version — taking him to 8.7 for the season — his total with respect to all position players would be tied for 69th with Willie Davis and Donie Bush, ahead of some HOFers but well behind a lot of guys who missed. See for yourself: http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/jehqY
James
12:42
Is Trevor Bauer the most interesting man in baseball?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
No. I respect the intellect when it comes to pitching, but his public persona is a turnoff, at least to me. Also, Shohei Ohtani is the most interesting man in baseball.
Bear
12:44
What is your favorite ballpark you have been to?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
That's a tough call. I've been to one game at AT&T, Target Field and old Tiger Stadium, and all were great for various reasons, but is it fair to make the call based on such a small sample size? Then again, the number of parks I've been to if you raise the bar even to 3 visits is basically the old and new NY parks plus Dodger Stadium. Based on various criteria, I could make some kind of argument for Dodger Stadium, Citi Field and Yankee Stadium 2 (the one that closed in 2008, with an unparalleled atmosphere) among that latter group. I'll also put Camden Yards (2 visits) on the upper tier from among the 21 I've visited.
The complete list, pulled up from a chat a couple weeks back:

4 NY parks
2 in Minnesota
2 in DC
Fenway, Camden Yards, Jacobs Field, Tiger Stadium (RIP), Kaufman, Safeco, RBIA, Miller, Wrigley, Dodger Stadium, AT&T, Petco and as of next month, Coors.
Kyle
12:48
What is the feeling about Brandon Nimmo, is he for real? At a minimum, the place discipline seems legit.
Gene Parmesean
12:48
Would you take Brandon Nimmo or Clint Frazier right now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
Nimmo over Frazier is easy given what the former has shown in 400+ plate appearances in MLB, particularly his plate discipline. I'm not sure that he can sustain the power — the only place he's slugged .500 before in any amount of playing time is hitter-friendly Las Vegas — but then again, we're in an era where players have consciously been able to unlock new levels of power by tweaking their swings, so never say never there.
Hard hit rate
12:52
My pick for likeliest MLB exec to have burner Twitter accounts is Derek Jeter, but who would be most entertaining?
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