JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/3/18

Jay Jaffe

12:00

Greetings from Brooklyn, where it's suddenly 87 degrees. i think we skipped spring entirely.

Bork

12:00

Who's the lucky recipient of this live Tommy John surgery?

Jay Jaffe

12:01

By the look of the game of Stroller Crash that my 20-month-old daughter is playing in the hallway, it might be her nameless doll.

v2micca

12:02

Have you ever seen a fanbase transition from optimism to fatalism as quickly as the 2018 Mets fans?

Jay Jaffe

12:03

For the moment it sounds like the Mets dodged a bullet regarding Jacob deGrom's hypexetended elbow, but between the mixed messaging, the team's long history of injury mismanagement, and the pitcher's importance to their 2018 fate, you can understand why the fan base is a bit nervous.

Rob

12:04

Stroller Crash would be an excellent name for a rock band btw

Jay Jaffe

12:04

agreed

Moelicious

12:04

Why do players wear batting helmets on the base paths? Wouldn't it be more comfortable to run without the helmet? They could give it to the first base coach.

Jay Jaffe

12:06

More comfortable, perhaps, but batted balls coming off the bat at 100 mph plus are still a danger, helmets are now mandatory for coaches after the death of Mike Coolbaugh, and we've seen a movement to protect pitchers' noggins as well. I don't think we're going to see a rollback there.

Kiermaier's Sad Green DL Eyes

12:06

You are the Braves GM (congrats on Albies & Acuna) what do you do with the rotation..Teheran,Sanchez.Gohara & Soroka?

Jay Jaffe

12:07

Sean Newcombe belongs there right now. I suspect that innings caps on some of the youngsters will give them opportunities to keep sorting through their options for most of the season.

Ash

12:09

Jay, our fantasy league has been discussing it, and we think that when the Fisher Cats play the Rumble Ponies in two weeks, it may be the most ludicrous named matchup in the history of mainstream north american professional sports. THOUGHTS?

Jay Jaffe

12:10

No love for the Hartford Yard Goats, the Akron Rubber Ducks, the Altoona Curve and two sea-worthy (Portland Sea Dogs and Erie SeaWolves) — that's more than half the Eastern League with ridiculous names.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe

12:10

Jay, so happy to have you at Fangraphs. Same goes for Sheryl (who needs her own chat!) and Meg.

Jay Jaffe

12:11

Thank you for the kind words. i will suggest to Sheryl that she do a chat!

Bort

12:11

What can/should the Dodgers do to get Austin Barnes going?

Jay Jaffe

12:13

He's in a tough spot because Grandal and Utley are hitting so well, but I suspect they'll hit their rough patches too. He does have one minor league option remaining; the Dodgers could send him to OKC to give him some regular playing time. Even once Turner and Forsythe are back, I suspect the team is banged up enough to get him some playing time.

CubFan

12:14

1-10 with 10 being get the knife ready for TJ, how concerned are you with the Jordan Montgomery's forearm strain? Seems like more often than not they go under the knife.

Jay Jaffe

12:16

3-4 maybe. Yankees said it was flexor tendon, not ulnar collateral ligament, and they expect him back in 6-8 weeks. If he suffers a setback within that window, I'd start to worry more but for the moment, I'll take them at their word

Andy

12:17

You think Keith Hernandez gets into the HOF via Veteran's Committee?

Jay Jaffe

12:20

Probably not anytime soon. He's never made it onto a small-committee ballot despite being eligible since 2012, and between the short-ish career, a non-traditional position profile where much of his value is concentrated in walks and defense), and his cocaine admission, I'd say it's an uphill climb. I do think he'd be an OK pick in that context, at least measured against the other 1Bs who've gotten in via that route.

Richard

12:22

What are your thoughts on Marcus Stroman going forward? Are you concerned so far?

Jay Jaffe

12:25

Less so after yesterday's outing, in which he supposedly reintroduced his cutter. Given that he went through a bout of shoulder inflammation this spring, at least we have an explanation as to his decreased velo. But his situation bears watching

Marc

12:26

Occasionally you'll hear or read beat writers say that their team is "only a half game back in the loss column" even though they're actually two games back in the standings. Is there any benefit, emotional or otherwise, to a team that is three wins and a loss behind first place, as opposed to two wins and two losses or a win and three losses?

Jay Jaffe

12:27

I don't think there's much benefit. It's basically shorthand for saying the team has a bit more control of its own destiny as opposed to needing other teams to stumble.

jay jaffe reddick

12:27

how many more seasons of roughly 2 war 3.8 FIP baseball would bartolo need to pitch before he could make a credible HoF case?

Jay Jaffe

12:28

If he's still pitching by the time I get my first ballot in 2021, he can have my vote whenever he reaches eligibility.

prospects r 4 nerdz

12:31

So McMahon's back down to AAA, Tapia's never left, and Dahl appears to have forgotten how to hit quickly... is there any hope the Rockies ever manage to get their bats to break in like their rookie arms?

Jay Jaffe

12:33

My track record for understanding WTF goes into determining the Rockies' outfield makeup has been horrific since at least 2014, when CarGo had his first terrible season there. Between keeping him and Gerardo Parra instead of playing the kids, I have no damn idea whatsoever, except to think that they assume nobody else can catch fly balls but those guys.

12:34

we'll take a brief pause while I go find some pepperoncini to spice up this rather dull Italian sub...

Johnny

12:36

What is your personal view re factors other than on the field performance when it comes to HOF voting? Bonus points for leadership, face of the franchise, historic or cultural significance, awards, etc? Demerits for clubhouse cancer, cheating, off the field problems, etc?

Jay Jaffe

12:40

historic and cultural significance is important as far as I'm concerned. The rest of what you've mentioned contains a lot of subjectivity and rumor — I think those should be carefully considered and their context understood. Without that, they can wind up becoming Rorschach blots, excuses to hide behind for not voting. "This guy has the performance and historical stuff, but I hear he's a bad guy, so no"

daro

12:41

Donaldson could be a good 3b for Atlanta next year. What do you think?

Jay Jaffe

12:42

Seems like a good fit, offhand, but I'm worried enough about the shoulder to want to see how this season plays out.

Vegan Man!

12:42

When Bird and Drury come back, what does the Yankees infield look like? Thanks!

Jay Jaffe

12:44

That's a good question, for which I'd say, "Don't count your Birds before they've hatched." If Torres and Andujar keep playing this well, with the team firing on all cylinders, I don't see how you can send them down except to buy a few days for some roster maneuvering.

I think my dude Neil Walker is in trouble given the squeeze, because I know they really like Drury.

Richard

12:45

OK, so AJ Pollock probably doesn’t keep this up, but can he still be one of the best players in the NL this year?

Jay Jaffe

12:48

I think so, if he stays healthy. The guy put up a 6.8 WAR season in 2015 and has had a lot of injuries since, but he can still hit and carry center field (quite well according to the metrics). That's a very valuable player.

12:49

Hey appreciate the shout out in the Acuña piece

Jay Jaffe

12:50

No problemo. These chats are good fuel for article ideas. I probably take at least one out of here every week.

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