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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/20/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks! It's a gorgeous day here in Brooklyn, and while that may not make a difference to you if you're staring at a computer screen, it's lightening my mood just a bit.
Yesterday I wrote about the Braves' outfield situation with the return of Ronald Acuña Jr. finally on the horizon https://blogs.fangraphs.com/as-the-braves-recover-from-their-sluggish-...
Today I've got a piece on the Twins' just-completed 13-game winning streak. That's in the pipeline and should go up shortly.
12:04
Tomorrow evening at 7 PM ET, I'll be participating in a SABR roundtable on the subject of the recently reinstated Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson, along with Keith O'Brien (author of the recent Rose bio Charlie Hustle) and ESPN's Don Van Natta Jr., who has reported on the reinstatement efforts regarding both Rose and Jackson. Jacob Pomrenke, an expert on Jackson and the 1919 Black Sox scandal, will serve as moderator. https://sabr.org/latest/this-week-in-sabr-may-16-2025#shoelessjoe
12:05
It was just after last week's chat wrapped up that all hell broke loose with the Rose news. My coverage of it is here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/say-it-aint-so-commissioner-manfred-posthu...
And with that housekeeping out of the way, on with the show!
David Stearns
12:06
How gross is it that guys like Klapisch and Madden Yankee apologists are going after Soto and making up stories about him because he left the Yankees?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
So much of the Soto coverage lately constitutes a dark chapter in NYC baseball media history. He's one of the best hitters on the planet, he's in a bit of a slump compared to his usual performance. Reading into his every gesture or non-gesture while that goes on is just foolish and desperate.
MVP Race
12:08
Am I a tighter race than I might seem? Judge is god mode but like Cal Raleigh is going Demi-god mode in the hardest position in the game... At what point do we have a conversation?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
Call me in late August, when Judge is no longer hitting .400 or putting up a wRC+ that's less than 80 points better than the 2nd-best hitter.
Jacky
12:11
Do you think Pete Rose will be inducted into the hall of fame eventually?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
As I wrote in March (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/never-is-a-long-long-time-permanent-inelig...), never and forever are both imponderably long times so the likelihood is that some day he's elected. However, for reasons  I went into in the piece linked above, I don't think it's going to be automatic, and it's entirely possible he falls short multiple times.
Your Name
12:13
When should the Pirates trade Skenes? For example, does having 4 years of control left fetch much more than having 3 years? -depressed in Pittsburgh
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
Four years of control is generally gonna bring back more than three years, but — if the Pirates do reach the point of trading him — a lot will depend on his recent performance and what's known about his health, which could vary and possibly delay the window to trade him. Likewise, trade deadlines can goose the returns a bit because they're higher-leverage situations for teams to deal.

It's pretty depressing to be talking about this as an inevitability but the past 30 years of the franchise doesn't offer a lot of reasons to be optimistic with regards to retaining Skenes.
Blame Nutting.
Al
12:17
Are there a lot of resources (training staff / coaching / idk dietician?) available to players at the big league level that are not available to the players in the minors?  Or are teams able to provide similar support at AAA/AA?  Is this one of the things the Dodgers are also the best at?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
Yes, the resources tend to be greater at the major league level than in the minors with regards to all the stuff you mention. The facilities and equipment are better; I don't think you're likely to come across one of those Trajekt Arc hitting machines in Double A. There are more coaches around, so that an assistant hitting coach or a director of pitching strategy (if there is one) might be able to supplement what he main hitting/pitching coach is imparting
presumably the facilities are better for food prep/diet management as well.
12:21
I'm not sure that the Dodgers are the best at any of these but they're able to be very good at them thanks to their willingness to invest in those areas.
Eephus
12:21
Do you think J. Aranda is worth holding on in light of the limited playing time? I have Altuve and Donovan at 2B but Altuve has been atrocious (permanently benched for now). I need to make space for streaming pitchers but not sure who to drop. Other drop candidates are Baez & Ward. Thanks!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
I'm not going to tell you how to run your fantasy team — I haven't played in 15 years — but I do think the Aranda breakout is real, as I wrote recently (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-long-awaited-jonathan-aranda-breakout), and I expect him to be playing regularly even if is a platoon-driven arrangement
Tim
12:23
Hi Jay. Don’t you think it’s time the Hall consider coaches ?  Or at least put them on the eligible list?   If Joe West and Ed Montague can be considered, shouldn’t Leo Mazzone, Charlie Lau, Frank Crosetti and others?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
I don't see it happening in terms of Hall membership though it would be cool to see a lifetime award granted for the best of them. The coaches you mentioned are famous and for good reason, but there are way too many moving parts to get a real sense of how much they improved a player or a team.
drplantwrench
12:25
ive been thinking a lot about Frank Robinson lately.  is he somehow underrated in the HoF pantheon?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
I do think so. he didn't have Mays' flair or Aaron's longevity in racking up the big numbers, but he was right there with them for a long time, a fantastic player, an elite slugger and a hard-nosed competitor who chose to focus on his role as the game's first Black manager rather than pressing for 3,000 hits and 600 homers.
12:29
I always loved Jim Murray's evocative quote about Robinson's intensity: "Frank Robinson always went into second like a guy jumping through a skylight with a drawn Luger.” Used that as the epigram for my tribute after he passed away in 2019.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/frank-robinson-superstar-slugger-and-trail... I wrote that while I was on a ski vacation because IMO that's what you do for a man of Robinson's stature within baseball.
bringbackpologrounds
12:30
Do you consider Lindor the 3rd-best post-integration SS behind A-Rod and Ripken?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
I hadn't thought about it in those terms, and I don't think he's earned that title yet; maybe he never will. The answer is still probably Ernie Banks. Even if roughly half his career was spent at first base, all seven years of his peak were from his time at shortstop, and his 52.0 WAR trails only those two you mentioned. Lindor is only 18th in peak WAR right now with several other post-integration SS above him including Boudreau, Yount, Trammell, Larkin, Noma, Ozzie, Jeter and Reese above him. But I suspect he'll climb that list.
John
12:33
What should the Red Sox do about Trevor Story?  He had a good April, but he has come crashing back down to Earth, and the defense is now grading out as poor on top of everything else.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
I don't think the Red Sox are going to do anything rash — declare him a sunk cost or relegate him to the bench — as they've already done enough to piss off one key veteran in Devers. But I imagine they're keeping their eyes on Story's defense as Mayer develops, and I don't think it's out of the question Story could go back to 2B at some point. As for his flagging offense, the guy has missed a lot of time in recent years and I suspect he may have developed some bad habits that need fixing.
Plan B
12:37
It's early, but you think Cashman is feeling himself over how Plan B is going?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
I don't think Brian Cashman sits around congratulating himself for a team that's played well for the season's first eight weeks, no.
12:39
But yes, the team's signings of Max Fried and Paul Goldscmidt look good, and Cody Bellinger has heated up lately to the point that his numbers no longer make my eyes water. Devin Williams' struggles, OTOH, are sobering and proof that he didn't somehow gain the Midas touch over the winter.
Sodo Mojo
12:40
Thank you for doing this one of the factors in the Mariners quick start is the play of Randy Arozarena who's WRC+ is 138.  With Free Agency approaching if he keeps this up do you think he receives a QO from the Mariners.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
Arozarena has one more year of club control after this one. If he continues to hit, I expect he'll be among those netting a qualifying offer — if he's still a Mariner. I wouldn't put it past Jerry Dipoto to flip him and gain more control, which might actually do Arozarena a solid if the deal is in the middle of his walk year.
Ken
12:42
Who do you think emerges from a very mediocre AL West?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
If George Kirby and Logan Gilbert can come back as expected, I like the Mariners' chances. This is not the Astros juggernaut of yore, and the Rangers have a lot that's not going right (Semien, Burger, Joc, Carter, back of the rotation)
PKPKPKPKPKPKPKPK
12:45
Freddie Freeman had his two highest WAR seasons after leaving ATL, and may make that three this year. Dansby Swanson has put up two consecutive 4+ WAR seasons, and is on track for a third, consistency he never had in ATL. Max Fried is pitching at a level he arguably never reached in Atlanta. William Contreras suddenly became a decent to excellent defensive catcher after leaving ATL. Is it fair to wonder if there's a problem with the Braves getting the most out of their players? Or is this just a combination of hindsight being 20/20 and the Braves rough/up and down start?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
I think it's more the latter, not that a change of scenery hasn't helped the players you mentioned. Freeman was outstanding in ATL and won an MVP and a World Series. Fried was part of that success and isn't going to continue posting a 1.x ERA forever. Even Swanson's best year by WAR and wRC+ was his walk year.
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