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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/17/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon/morning and welcome to another edition of my weekly Thursday chats.

First, some housekeeping. In last week's discussions of favorite sandwiches in NYC, I mourned the loss of the fried chicken sandwich from Van Horn Sandwich Shop, but I neglected to mention the loss of a sandwich that trumped even that: the Italian at Bierkraft, a Park Slope specialty beer shop that also did great subs. For meats, theirs had house roasted  ham, hot sopressata, proscuitto di Parma and something called petit jesu, which is a garlic-and-red-wine salami that looks like this https://stinkybklyn.com/shop/charcuterie/petit-jesu/. Also arugula, tomato, onion, roasted red pepper, balsamic and EVOO.
12:02
That and a pint or bottle of any craft beer was a reliable go-for dinner or a picnic lunch back when my wife lived nearby. And per my complaint about not being able to get a decent Italian sandwich nearby — no, i'm not paying $18 f'ing dollars to the place with 150 different combos at Dekalb Market, edit your damn menu — it's because none will ever measure up to that one.

(and yes, I do have a jpg of a menu for a place that went out of business three years ago. What's weird about that?)

Accountability about sandwich remembrances is what I'm here for.
Marshall
12:02
Would you vote for Chase Utley for HoF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
Hell yes. Hugely underrated player because he was not only an exceptional hitter but fielder and baserunner as well. Ninth in JAWS at 2B https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_2B.shtml but I think he's gonna get burned by the Rule of 2,000 as he needs 126 more hits and I'm just not sure he gets enough playing time to get there.
John Oleruds Helmet
12:05
Mr Jay! Enlighten thou with thy wisdom across the chativerse!! With the way front offices have devalued aging veterans and the prominence of players increasing their launch angle at the expense of contact, could a 3000 hit player become an impossibility in our lifetime like the 300 win pitcher has become??
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
Well, we're probably going to see Miguel Cabrera and Robinson Cano reach 3,000 within a few years, but after that, it could be awhile, as nobody active has more than ~2,100 and the guys that do (Markakis and Reyes) are 34 and 35. But I do think somebody like Altuve and of course Trout will have shots at it, if they stay healthy. We'll have more of 'em than we do 300 win guys, for sure
Alec Asher Wojciechowski
12:09
Do you know how suspensions and the DL work? Why is it that Gurriel couldn't serve his suspension on the DL, but Cano can?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
Not 100% sure about this but discipline for what Gurriel did was at the commissioner's discretion, whereas the DL stuff must be codified somewhere in the Joint Drug Agreement.
capconstrained
12:11
Last time through the Sox rotation, this is IP by starter:

Sale 5
Rodriguez 5
Porcello 6
Pomeranz 4
Price 5.1

A few more like these and the Yanks will be sitting pretty.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
Every team goes through streaks and slumps. Between Sonny Gray,  Masahiro Tanaka and the fact that Domingo German couldn't maintain his no-hit prowess forever, the Yankees rotation has its own issues to get through. This race is gonna last the whole season.
Richard
12:14
Feels like the Blue Jays are trying to remain competitive while also regularly playing Kendrys Morales, two forces that are at odds with each other. With fewer balls in play than usual, could they call up Vlad and attempt to move Donaldson to shortstop? Would help the lineup. Could the defense survive?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
I think it's far more likely that if/when Vlad Jr. comes up, he and the less-than-mint-condition Donaldson will be sharing 3B and DH spots. I know he started there a couple times last year, but I don't see him playing SS except in a late-game move.

Russell Martin, OTOH...
Tristan
12:17
Feels like Brandon Belt is continuing the breakout we started to see last season. Is he the top 1B in the NL West right now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
he's had the best quarter-season of any of them, but I'm not ready to count out Goldschmidt (whom I looked at in today's piece http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/losing-pollock-isnt-the-d-backs-only-pr...) or Bellinger from that discussion if we're talking about the bigger picture.
Justin
12:21
Is anyone noticing that Aaron Judge really is as good as he seemed like last year? Just fewer dingers and Not Being Trout (or Betts), I guess
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
Yes, very much noticing. I think Travis Sawchik has something on him today or tomorrow
Chapultepec Audiorama
12:22
If you were forced to kick out 3 HOF members based solely on on-field performance, which 3 would get the boot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
Tommy McCarthy, a 19th century OF who should be in as a pioneer, and two from among the Frisch group of Jesse Haines, Chick Hafey, High Pockets Kelly, JIm Bottomley and Freddie Lindstrom.
Zock Jr.
12:25
Just want to say up front that I hate pitcher wins. BUT. A friend and I are discussing them, like ya do. And, unless Verlander or CC pitch til they're Colonesque, nobody's getting to 300 again, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
Verlander, Greinke and Kershaw are the guys who have at least a puncher's chance.
curdybuff
12:27
when are the dodgers done?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
I think when Matt Harvey and his Boeing-model ERA beat them in his Reds debut.
12:32
I should point out that I'm not the one making these sandwiches. That beat's all you, Eno.
Ben
12:34
How do you see the Astros
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
with MLB TV, mostly. Houston's too far a commute
Guest
12:35
Is Ian Kinsler done being a star? Last year he took a pretty big step back and now he's 35 with a 67 wRC+
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
He's not off to a great start, is he? I don't have a great handle on the specifics of the why, so he might be worth a closer look.
Puente
12:36
Was your lukewarm assessment of Wisconsin beer just a ploy to get prideful Midwesterners to send you bottles of Ale Asylum and New Glarus?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
Uh, sure. But if Wisconsinites really want to impress me, they'll send me bricks of 10-year aged cheddar cheese. Any state can produce good beer, but cheese is their 80-grade tool.
Roll Tribe
12:39
At what point does CLE ownership start looking at the coaching as the source of the issues plaguing CLE?  "Tito Tenure" indeed...
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
this is the kind of what-have-you-done-for-me-lately crap that belongs on sports talk radio. They won 102 games last year, took it to Game 7 of the World Series the year before and despite a few minor issues and injuries are in first place in a terrible division at the one-quarter mark. But yeah, let's fire the manager.
Kristen
12:42
What kind of dollars/years will the better offseason FA SP's like Corbin/Pomeranz get?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
Given Corbin's falling velocity and Pomeranz's long history of injuries, let's see if they survive the regular season first.
Marshall
12:44
What do you think is the "right" size for the Hall of Fame? Should it be scaled based on some percentage of roster size*team number?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
I looked at historical levels of representation in The Cooperstown Casebook. Through the 2017 elections, for the 1885–1993 period, the average was 1.79 Hall of Famers per team per season, the equivalent of 54 Hall of Famers active. For the period from 1961–97, it’s 1.36. I think that's more realistic given the closure of the VC pipeline — but it's much lower than that for the 1990s onward.
Gus
12:47
Can't beat Court St Grocers.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
I've never been. will check into this.
Dub
12:49
Do the Dodgers play Bellinger more in OF like last night for the rest of the year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
I'm not sure I see a long-term need to get Max Muncy playing time, or to further crowd the OF situation, but Bellinger's versatility and athleticism is a nice thing to have.
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