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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/14/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:02
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Friday chat. It's a gorgeous day here in Brooklyn, and I've already treated myself to tacos al fresco so my mood is more chipper than Larry Jones.

Today I've got a piece on the very different COVID-19 outbreaks of the Padres and Yankees, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/even-amid-vaccinations-outbreaks-on-padres...
2:03
Earlier this week, I wrote about Max Scherzer's pursuit of 3,000 strikeouts, and who might be next https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-and-the-coming-wave-of-3000-s...

The scourge of the runner-on-second extra innings rule https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-runner-on-second-in-extras-rule-has-wo...

And yet another Byron Buxton injury https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-twins-lose-byron-buxton-again-but-thei...
Anywho, let's get the show on the road...
Hmmm
2:03
Why do teams like the Marlins, Cardinals, and Nats get games postponed due to outbreaks while the Padres are forced to play with a AAA squad? Anti-Padre bias?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:05
The difference, as I noted in today's piece, is that the vast majority of the Padres (and also the Yankees) are vaccinated and thus there's far less fear of a team-wide outbreak, whereas that wasn't the case even for the Nationals in April. It's actually a bit messed up when you think about the possibility of *dis*incentivizing vaccinations, but that's not to say that the league wouldn't have nudged the Padres to play if they were really lagging behind
MLB The Shohei
2:05
Cilantro/onion or lettuce/tomato/cheese?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:05
In this case, cilantro and onion — i have a nice little authentic Mexican deli near me that I've been hitting up for 13 years now
2:06
not that there's a damn thing wrong with the lettuce/tomato/cheese option either. I'm just as happy to do a hard shell taco kit from the grocery store as I am to hit up the authentic places
Curtis
2:06
How will Miguel Cabrera's career in baseball end?  Seems like we're drawing near....  sad to see the fade out of Pujols and Cabrera but I get trying to play until they tell you that you can't
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
Man, right now it is looking Not Good at All. He's chasing the dual milestones of 3,000 hits and 500 homers — would become the first player to attain both this year — except that he's hitting for a 62 wRC+ and i swear might be LOSING hits off his total.

Wrote about his Opening Day homer and it's been skis straight downhill since https://blogs.fangraphs.com/miguel-cabreras-snow-doubt-home-run-and-cl...
Mork Borg
2:08
If Chris Sale hits 3000 Ks, does he make the hall of fame?  I feel like he's the forgotten *ace* of the last decade, behind Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
That's going to be very interesting to see. In a wave of 3,000 strikeout pitchers, will the achievement be devalued, as 500 homers has been (granted there's a big difference in terms of that one)?
2:10
Sale's peak score (WAR7) is ~equal of Sabathia's (39.5), and 3,000 plus a Cy and a ring (not to minimize a whole lot of otoher cool stuff) is probably going to be enough for CC to get in
2:11
But as we've seen, only one pitcher has come back from TJ to wind up in the Hall, John Smoltz. The longevity is hard to achieve even with the bionic arm
MLB The Shohei
2:11
Why didn't anyone tell me that Evan Longoria has ~55 War? Is he a sneaky hall candidate?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
Longoria's at 56.6/41.9/49.3 which puts him 18th in JAWS. His problem is that everybody above him who's not in — Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, Graig Nettles, Scott Rolen, Adrian Beltre, Buddy Bell, even Sal Bando — has a stronger case beyond just the WAR, so I think he'll need a big hook to get voters to come around on him.
Like, key player on a World Series winner or something.
Derek
2:13
Given the league's apparent willingness to give (the increasingly vaccinated) teams more leeway to play through Covid outbreaks, is there any chance we see the 7-inning doubleheader rule go away mid-season? I suspect it's more likely that it sticks around permanently, but a guy can dream...
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
I'm skeptical about the league changing rules in midseason, last year's counterexamples regarding the playoff format and introduction of the 2x7 doubleheader notwithstanding.
Kate
2:14
So what defense does MLB possibly have in this grievance considering they themselves offered to play more games than the 60 that were eventually played?  How can they say they attempted to play the most games possible?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
That's a damn good question. And while it's reasonable to hope that they lose the grievance because screw the billionaires I think it exists more as a leverage play in CBA negotiations than something that's likely to drag out to its conclusion ‚ which as we saw with the Kris Bryant grievance could take years.
Toshi
2:17
Who among current active players is the biggest freak?  Trout? Ohtani? Or someone else?  Thanks.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
RJ
2:20
Jay, I know this is a stupid question. We all know Pujols is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. I don't want to discredit that. His career just fascinates me, with how he just really fell off a cliff and has been replacement level for 5 years and well below that the last 5. Does his career change or alter discussion many may have about players who didn't nearly touch the peaks of Pujols, but were "very good" and never saw such a decline in their tenure? I don't know. I know this is not-specific and really unrelated to your ballot specifically. I'm just curious if a player being an all-time great for ten years and .....not that for ten years, if it makes you think
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
Eh, i don't think it really has a ton of impact on my thoughts, particularly because the objective numbers — whether we're talking about 3000+ hits and 667 homers or nearly 100 WAR — testify to the rarefied air he reached even with a terrible half-decade and a mediocre one
2:22
Where I can see it mattering, and have already, is the perception of Joe Mauer's career after his move to first base. Mauer is 7th in JAWS among catchers, and 5th in peak on the basis of what he did behind the plate. All seven of his best seasons were as a catcher
and yet, some people don't think he's Hallworthy
Beel
2:24
Andrew Vaughn is slashing .276/.405/.444 in May and has cut his strikeout rate from 30.9% in April to 13.5% in May, is top ten in EV and 90% percentile in walk rate. Not too early to get excited?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
I wouldn't go overboard yet, but he's hitting the ball harder and maintaining a disciplined approach, very good signs
Parity
2:25
Are we going to end up with a ton of teams between 75 and 85 wins or will some finally break free from all this?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
Despite their sluggish starts I do think we'll see the Dodgers, Padres, Yankees and maybe a couple other teams top 90 wins and maybe even 95, but right now our Playoff Odds project 13 teams to land in 75-85 territory, which seems high
Yikes
2:27
Offense is currently so bad that Gary Sanchez's gross looking line is actually above average.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
saw some Yankee twitter folks arguing over this recently. .197/351/.382 is ugly but a .184 ISO and 16% walk rate goes a long way
2:29
that line is good for a 114 wRC+
as I said, we're in The Year of the Pitcher 2.0
Sale
2:29
Doesn't actually have a Cy, though!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
Yes, I am aware of that
2:30
Neither did Mike Mussina, and neither does Schilling. That's not what's going to keep Sale out of the Hall I don't think, esp with all those years getting votes (7 straight, 6 in the top 5)
Cueto's Shimmy
2:31
Which of these Giant's SP arms will turn back into a pumpkin by the trade deadline?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
My guess is Aaron Sanchez, due to the big drop in velocity, but he's doing an excellent job of limiting hard contact, so...
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