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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/10/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Good morning or afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. If you saw the subtitle of this week's chat, you'll understand that I'm in mourning for the impending loss of my favorite neighborhood restaurant — the default place where my wife and I take family and friends who trek to our corner of Brooklyn for a casual night out. https://ny.eater.com/2018/5/9/17336048/ganso-ramen-closing-downtown-br...

The moral of the story is, hug your favorite neighborhood restaurant, because one day it won't be there no matter how often you go.
THE Average Sports Fan
12:03
What is your take on the Harvey-Mesoraco swap?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:05
1. "Be careful what you wish for, Matt Harvey." While he was within his rights to reject the Triple A assignment, he's now about to toil in a place that's much rougher for pitchers, particularly ones with gopher problems, and he won't be anywhere close to the postseason.

2. A fair trade of damaged goods for both sides.
Mike
12:05
My yankees are on a tear right now, and most of that relates to what I thought was our greatest need. Pitching. What does German look like as a starter going forward? and how sustainable is CC's FIP defying heroics?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
Travis Sawchik took a good look at German a couple days ago. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/domingo-german-demands-our-attention/ Obviously, Sunday's six no-hit innings was a promising development, and he does seem to have a mix that should help him survive as a starter. As for CC, he's not gonna keep up a sub-2.00 ERA but he's still a very useful starter. After this chat I'm heading up to Yankee Stadium for tonight's outing against the Red Sox and planning to write about him unless something bigger happens.
Hard hit rate
12:09
It seems like a number of players who are sporting career-best or near career-best hard hit rates are struggling. Marcell Ozuna, and the Santanas, Carlos and Domingo, come to mind. Do you have any ideas for why that is the case?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
Honestly, until I joined the FanGraphs staff, I hadn't taken much of a look at hard hit rates, and so far, I'm not tremendously convinced that they do a better job of describing the type of contact a pitcher is generating than Statcast. Hard hit can mean scorching groundballs that turn into outs instead of fly balls that are rattling off outfield walls.
Funkhouser
12:11
Hi Jay! Do you think Gleyber will ever see starts at 3rd base? Also, what's your favorite sandwich in NYC?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:15
As of last year it seemed like Gleyber's path to the majors was at the hot corner, but Miguel Andujar's subsequent breakout while Torres was hurt seems to have changed the Yankees' plans, as has the revelation that Brandon Drury's preferred position is third base instead of second, where he played more in Arizona. So I don't see him getting a lot of time at third in the near future.

As for favorite sandwiches, i've lost some dear ones, including just about every great fried chicken sandwich within walking distance (the one at the late, lamented Van Horn Sandwich Shop on Court St. in Brooklyn still hurts). One of my go-tos lately has been the grilled chicken banh mi from Hanco's, spicy with sliced raw jalapeños. I'd kill to have a better Italian combo sandwich easily available, but then again, it might kill me sooner rather than later.
Tommy
12:16
Does anyone like Dayn Perry?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
Anyone who likes beer and tacos likes Dayn. Be wary of anyone who doesn't like beer and tacos.
Steve
12:17
Nomar Mazara appears to be breaking out.  But looking under the hood, he's only got a 23% FB rate thus far with an absurd 38.5% HR/FB rate.  He hits so many GB (52%), but when he hits a FB he apparently crushes it.  I can't figure this guy out.  What do you make of this?  Is he an early season mirage?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
Wrote about Mazara for today (publication pending) and looked past the high GB rate in favor of focusing on two areas of improvement: damage against breaking balls and against lefties. It's all small sample squinting, admittedly, but it does seem like there's hope. Like Fox Mulder, I want to believe.
Phil
12:18
So bizarre for Ganso to close... they seemed to be doing well, and had gotten the Bib Gourmand! Surely Jay Jaffe can get the inside scoop?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
The place seems to be bustling on weekends, and does a decent early-evening weeknight business too — when you have a toddler, as we do, you learn these things. That they're a very kid-friendly place is part of the heartache, honestly, because watching my daughter play with noodles in front of my parents or other family that's traveled to see her is a joy. And of course the restaurant is a critical hit. But restaurant economics are brutal, and I'm sure that goes doubly in NYC.
Alec Asher Wojciechowski
12:21
What are the odds an Astros pitcher throws a no-no this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
I give them a 127% chance of throwing a no-hitter. I know that seems low, but that's what the helper monkey with the calculator tells me, and I don't have time to check his math while I keep this chat going.
Bobby Cox
12:24
Give us your thought on Acuna Jr. after 2 weeks?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
The kid can f'ing play, and if the Braves continue to play well but miss a playoff spot by a game or two, the time he spent in Triple A will provide a welcome lesson for teams that place the gaming of service time as a higher priority than fielding their best nine.

Also, I may have underestimated his Hall of Fame chances https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/acunas-hall-of-fame-chance...
Pulled Apart Like Soft Bread
12:26
Matt Harvey seemed, anecdotally and from a great distance, to be more concerned with being a famous NY baseball player than being a great baseball player. Is this off base?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
1. Matt Harvey threw very, very hard and was very good. And came off as very cocky.

2. Matt Harvey tore his UCL, then came back and threw more innings in his first post-TJ surgery than any pitcher ever has. His manager went against his own better judgment and allowed him to piss away a 9th inning World Series lead that resulted in the team's elimination that year.

3. Matt Harvey struggled in 2016, was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome, and underwent sugery. Like all too many pitchers with TOS, he's no longer nearly as effective as he once was. He has to figure out how to pitch with diminished stuff, a transition that happens to most power pitchers eventually.

Everything else is noise relative to those three points. In the hypercompetitive NY media, it sells papers and clicks, but it's mostly irrelevant to the above.
grapes
12:32
Is David Price done? What's going on?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
He was just diagnosed with carpal tunnel syndrome, which probably isn't fatal or even season-threatening. Let's hold off on the burials, and as with Harvey, it's a good idea to overlook the noise coming out of the Hot Take Machine.
Mac
12:34
Is there any way to get Diaz onto the Indians to see if a Machado trade would even be necessary without somebody getting hurt? There's been talk of possibly trading for Machado to replace the struggling Kipnis, but I'd like to see what Diaz could do before we give up prospects. To be clear I'm not saying that Diaz might be as good as Machado, just that he could potentially be an average player.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
I mentioned the possibility of replacing Kipnis with Diaz (with Jose Ramirez sliding to second) yesterday http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/does-any-team-want-to-win-the-al-centra.... As I understand it, Diaz has been sidelined by an ankle injury, so that won't be happening anytime very soon. Once he gets healthy, it's certainly worth seeing if he can be an upgrade, particularly before they try to meet the Orioles' asking price for Machado.

IMO the more pressing need for the Indians is replacing Josh Tomlin, whose FIP is above 9.50. I mean, anything would be an improvement on that.
Smikal
12:39
Any High School first rounders out of the North East this year? Siana/Decker/Torres/Vasil? Rank and projections on them 4?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
Just as surely as I'm not the guy at whom you should direct fantasy questions, so too am I out of my depth with draft stuff like this. Kiley or Eric represent the trees up which you should be barking.
Pine Needles
12:40
Robinson Cano: will he make the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
Yes. He's already got 2,400+ hits and 300+ homers, with a chance at 3,000 and 400, respectively, and he's currently seventh in JAWS among second basemen https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_2B.shtml. It should be smooth sailing even if some jerkass reminds us that the guy didn't show enough false hustle as a Yankee.
Ham 'n Mayo Smith
12:43
I'm really perplexed by Byron Buxton.  Understand young players may take a while to figure it out regardless of their skill set.  What's your gut sense on where he ultimately lands?  Billy Hamilton clone?  Early version of Barry Bonds (e.g., five tools in Pittsburgh before sitting for the pharmacy boards)?  Something in between?   Is it down to the weather in Minneapolis?  He just shouldn't exhibit mediocrity to such epic proportions, oui?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
I wish I knew. He's got some issue — the migraines and a broken toe — that help explain this year's slow start, but I wish he would stop hitting .170 in April like it's his birthright. That said, if he can provide league average offense with the kind of defense he's shown in CF, he'll be a valuable player for awhile. Devon White or Torii Hunter maybe?
Larry Wayne Jones
12:50
If Acuna is "on track" presumably to go into the HOF, what about Albies so  far?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
what about actually reading the article? The information is right there within. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/acunas-hall-of-fame-chance...
Roman Numeral Three
12:51
If there's one thing NYC knows about sandwiches, it's using corned beef/pastrami. Reuben Sandwich ftw.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
I live close to outposts of both Katz's Deli and Mile End, and I have to say the Reubens from the former are just so ridiculous in price ($~22) and structure (so unsound they'd never pass the city's stringeng building codes) that I've given up. Junior's Restaurant, which is more famous for its cheesecakes, makes my favorite Reuben.
Wes
12:53
My wife is unsure about trying real ramen after eating the 20 cent packages her whole life. How do I convince her?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
Having eaten a thousand packages of dried ramen in my life — it was a staple growing up, always handy when backpacking, and it remains the greatest hangover remedy known to man — I can tell you that it's worth stepping up to the real thing for the ajitama egg alone.
Nats
12:56
Ryan Zimmerman remains near the top of the league in exit velocity but his average remains poor. This phenomenon happened in 2016 as well. What is your take on prolonged average depression relative to EV?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
that it's worth looking at more than just raw EV average on all batted balls, though it can certainly tell us something. Zim still hits a lot of grounders and is a slow guy, so his BABIP is generally gonna be nothing special. That said, his xwOBA this year is in the .380 range, as it was last year, compared to .316 in 2016, so I wouldn't hit the panic button.
Nixon
1:00
I believe that whoever signs Bryce Harper to a massive contract is going to severely hurt their team's future. He is injury prone, has not been valuable defensively since 2012, and is offensively inconsistent. Yes, offensively he is extremely gifted, but at $400 million that is not enough. Am I way off?
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