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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/9/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:00
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first official chat of the 2021 regular season.
2:02
I'm pleased to report that I'm freshly vaccinated with my second shot, but I have to admit that while I wasn't feeling any negative effects when I set this chat in motion about 90 minutes ago, the mere act of going to pick up my lunch seems to have set off some wobbly legs and general fatigue. Gonna try to power through this for as long as I can, but you might want to have the bullpen ready.
2:03
I was up late playing beat-the-clock to finish this piece on Fernando Valenzuela and the 40th anniversary of Fernandomania before my symptoms kicked in https://blogs.fangraphs.com/remembering-fernandomania-40-years-later/. Remarkably, in 20 years of writing about baseball, I had never written more than a few hundred words at a time on one of my all-time favorite players.
anyway, on with the show
Mike Trout
2:04
I am inevitable
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:04
John Olerud's Helmet
2:04
I know hes a 2 time MVP and 1st ballot HOFer but am i wrong to think the Big Hurt Frank Thomas is still somehow underappreciated because his numbers got somewhat buried by all the inflated numbers of the steroid era?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:05
Maybe a bit? The injuries cost him a shot at 600 home runs, which would have elevated his profile a bit, though being tied with Willie McCovey and Ted F'ing Williams at 521 is aesthetically perfect
RIP DMX
2:06
Are you now in the MODERNA or PFIZER trials? 2nd shot expect symptoms to worsen after 6-8 hours and betta in day or so (for most, not all)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
Pfizer, and I'm 23 hours in, felt fine at 21 hours but now it's like Wile E. Coyote looking down after going over the cliff.
Apathetic Buccos Fan
2:07
Sports discussions are typically focused on salary caps, but what are your thoughts on a salary floor that would require certain MLB teams to spend something more than a minimum amount of investment toward each season? Would a salary floor be workable in the MLB?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
The only way it would work is if young players were to make significantly more money earlier in their careers. Otherwise you've got a roster of mostly guys making some function of the minimum and a small handful of veterans being way overpaid relative to their skills in order to entice them into what may well be a rather noncompetitive situation
Raphie C
2:08
What are your thoughts on converting Chris Paddack to a bullpen piece? The lack of development of a third pitch seems concerning, and with the Padres carrying Adrian Morejon, Mackenzie Gore, and Ryan Weathers, do Paddack's long term prospects align more with a relief role?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
The Padres have a ton of pitching depth, but I'm not sure they need to rush to convert Paddack into a reliever. He had a very nice rookie season, and a meh 12-start follow-up. He does need an effective third pitch but the team can give him some time to find one; I'm not sure working out of the bullpen is the best way to do that. I suspect that sooner or later, the results will dictate his path.
Moonlight Graham
2:11
Does Nelson Cruz have two more 40 dinger seasons in him to reach 500?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
That's a big ask. Right now he looks like he can hit 40, but my guess is that he'd need 2 more after this year to close the deal because something will bump him out of the lineup for a stretch or two.
Scott
2:13
Regarding the Conforto HBP, I don't understand why the unpires went straight to the replay booth to confirm that the ball hit him.  They should have had a quick huddle, in which any of the other 3 umpires could have pointed out that a called strike is a strike regardless if the batter was hit.  Your thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:15
it seems to me that the umpires' first priority should be to determine whether he tried to avoid being hit by the pitch, and that the replay review should be centered around aiding that determination. If I understand correctly, that aspect is not subject to being overturned by replay, which just seems wrong
MM
2:15
Dodger-manias during my lifetime ranked:  Fernando-mania > Hershiser-mania > Nomo-mania > Gagne-mania.  Although Fernando-mania is the only one with "mania" in the name.  How do you rank these?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
I think that's the right order. Fernandomania was so huge due to the connection to Latino fans, particularly in light of the Dodgers' original sin in the Chavez Ravine land grab. Hershiser also gave them a championship. Nomo's run had an international component that helped to globalize MLB and bring a new talent stream to the US. Gagne was fun but far less impactful than those three
John Olerud's Helmet
2:18
One thing this season has reminded me is how much i despise starting a runner on 2nd in extra innings, im sure youve covered this before but whats your opinion on it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
I didn't mind the rule last year in light of the tightrope MLB had to walk to get even a short season in, but it's grating on me more this year already. I'd be happy to lose it.
Sloan
2:19
Jay, how do you think about the concept of value wrt  to value in a pure sense versus how teams think about it. Obviously in the past we had the false concept of an "RBI hitter/run producer" that teams not only believed existed, but valued. Could it be that defense in WAR is something of a inverse corollary to this, because replacement level defense seems artificially low, because the minors are full of good/great defenders that cannot hit. The Orioles, for example, could easily decide to be the best fielding team in MLB with freely available talent, but couldn't easily execute such a plan to have the best hitting team.  tldr - please don't put Vizquel in the HOF
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
Replacement level defense doesn't really work as a concept, as people smarter than me have shown. and as I think you're getting at there.

The thing about value that to me is sometimes missed when we rely upon WAR is the entertainment aspect. There's a reason why casual fans enjoy players who can hit for high batting averages and steal bases without being on the same level in WAR as the big hitters. Think of the outsized popularity of Maury Wills, Lou Brock, Ichiro Suzuki or DJ LeMahieu. They're not the equal of Mays, Aaron, Bonds or Trout, but they're a hell of a lot of fun to watch, and we do the game a disservice when we focus too heavily upon the things they don't do
Nate
2:24
Leaving aside who might benefit from it during the next election cycle, what are your thoughts on the top vote getter making the HOF in years when nobody clears the 75% threshold?  That person's almost certainly going to get in eventually and a shutout doesn't really seem like it's good for anybody.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
I'd be fine if they restored a run-off system for the top 5-10 candidates in a year where nobody got 75%.
mmddyyyy
2:25
You articles often differentiate the modern and pre-modern eras. Do you think 1900 will always be the common delineator?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
I mean, it depends upon the application. 1900/1901 is a useful divider because we have the box scores and the birth of two 8-team leagues that lasted for 60 years without much change, but for some pitching-related stuff, 1893 — the year they moved the pitching distance to 60-foot-6 makes more sense, and sometimes World War II or integration or post-1960 expansion is the sensible divider.
Aaron
2:27
Should socially aware fans care about a player's mental health concerning how they treat said player from the stands?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
I think it's always good to remember that players are human beings, not stat generating robots. they make more money than most of us do, but that doesn't make them less entitled to being treated fairly and with empathy.
Q-Ball
2:29
Heading out to Drummer's Cove this June?  I'll be there first couple weeks of June.  Been going there 30+ years now!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
Yup, will be up there sometime in mid-to-late June. Really looking forward to it
Q-Ball
2:29
June is a little cold to swim, but it's horseshoe crab and turtle season, you can see tons of turtles via Kayak in the grass of Drummer's Cove (and all through Blackfish Creek)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
I don't remember having seen horseshoe crabs there until last year but holy hell, those things are amazing, and was fun to talk about them with our then-3-year-old daughter
Buffalo Bill
2:32
Jay, do you have any thoughts on the Blue Jays playing Buffalo again this season? How severe a disadvantage does it put them in? Also, as a Buffalonian I'm looking forward to potentially seeing the Jays play in our not so bad AAA ballpark.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
given the split between Dunedin and Buffalo and the possibility that these players have family in Toronto, it has to be hard as hell mentally — and probably physically — to deal with all of this. I'm glad to see that Sahlen Field is being upgraded to make it comply with MLB standards. Pending upgrades according to this piece (https://www.wkbw.com/sports/buffalo-bisons-to-begin-season-in-trenton-...)

  • Moving the bullpens off the field and behind the outfield walls
  • New batting cages built beyond right field
  • New weight room and renovated clubhouse facilities
  • LED light bulb replacements plus two additional temporary lighting poles
Mr. Burrito
2:35
First, hope you feel better soon.
Second, dumb question: When will we have enough stats to know if the current baseball is or isn't livelier than last year's. The idea that it's lighter seems to me (a non-physicist) to run counter to the idea that the ball won't go as far. And the eye test suggests things haven't changed.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
Thank you. I'll pull through even if the rest of today is rough. I've got my daughter's tee-ball debut tomorrow and I'll do whatever it takes to make that.
Justin Choi, one of our new contributors, took a look at what we've learned about the ball thus far here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-early-look-at-the-new-baseball/
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