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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/30/24
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:00
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat!
2:02
I'm a bit late in setting this up today as I was scrambling to file a piece on Padres knuckleballer Matt Waldron that will actually run tomorrow.
We'll give this a few minutes for the queue to fill up and for me to finish this structurally unsound turkey sandwich.
2:06
Yesterday I took a look at Paul Goldschmidt and a handful of other former All-Stars who have been playing at or below replacement level through the season's first month. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/paul-goldschmidt-and-the-crowd-below-repla...
the person who asks the lunch question
2:06
What's for lunch?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
My usual go-to when I make a sandwich at home: Boar's Head cracked pepper smoked turkey on Arnold Country White bread with mayo, mustard (eye-watering stuff from Philippe The Original, home of the French dip), sliced cucumber, and Potbelly Giardiniera (ikyky).
Yeah Well Hiura Towel
2:09
Jay, how long til we get a real gambling scandal in MLB? i.e. one actually involving players betting or providing insider info?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
i remain skeptical that there's any player stupid enough to do this, but then if you asked me in 2015 whether this country would get as stupid as it has, I wouldn't have thought so. And yet here we are, one pandemic, two impeachments, one attempted coup and an existential threat to democracy later.
Josh
2:12
Where are you on Andy Pages? Above-average regular going forward or worried about the swing and miss, still?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:15
I've been pleasantly surprised so far given that he's coming back from shoulder surgery, which generally tends to sap a hitter's power. I think he'll always have swing and miss issues but like prime Chris Taylor be able to offset that with his power and general offensive ability. He's got a 132 wRC+ right now, and while I don't expect him to maintain that, I think he has a shot at being the most productive of the Dodgers' outfielders besides Teoscar Hernández.
Talfred
2:15
Although Volpe has come back down to earth after his hot start, have we seen enough to say with confidence that he's a significantly better player than he showed last year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
I think he's improved a fair bit, but his underlying Statcast numbers suggest it's pretty sublte; he's actually barreling the ball less often and his x-stats are pretty similar. Where he's really improved is in controlling the strike zone; his swinging strike rate has dropped from 12.5% to 6.5% as he's shaved about 5 points off his chase rate. I think we're due for a closer look at him soon.
BLEES
2:18
Edwin Diaz throwing a USDA Certified Meatball last night was just what the doctor ordered for this Cubs offense. If they can hang above .500 until Belli and Suzuki are back are they the team to beat in the NLC?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
It's a long season and nobody is going to run away with the NL Central. The Cubs' lineup has a ton of players who aren't producing, and their run prevention is nothing special. I do think they have to be pleased with Shota Imanaga's first month, and likewise Michael Busch.
Travis
2:22
Is it time to be concerned about Acuna yet? He looks rooooough and the numbers back it up
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
I'd be a little concerned given how dramatically his numbers have eroded — strikeout rate more than doubled,  not hitting the ball as hard (xSLG down about 280 points!). not sure what's going on but this just proves that Mookie Betts should have been the NL MVP last year <ducking>.
Matt VW
2:26
Thinking about your article on below replacement level vets, Xander Bogaerts is off to a pretty bumpy start too. He's not that old, but is at a moment in his career where we might infer the start of a decline phase for a middle infielder. Is this more of an "it's April" thing, or do the underlying date indicate some cause for more than usual concern?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
His numbers are bad but I'm not terribly concerned yet. His xBA and xSLG are very similar to both 2022 and '23, but he just hasn't gotten his money's worth. I do wonder if the position change is having an impact on his offense.
Travis
2:29
I mean, baseball players aren’t any smarter than any other athletes and you just had a scandal in the NBA, and multiple gambling suspensions in the NFL
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
You're right, though I do think that MLB rightfully making an example of Pete Rose by banning him for life looms large. And hey, maybe the NBA's lifetime ban of Jontay Porter will resonate across sports and provide a cautionary tale of what's at stake.
Underperforming Vets
2:31
What do you think of Arozarena and Bogaerts? Both have been brutal to start the year and we're over the 100 PAs mark.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
Arozarena was in yesterday's piece linked above. He's been trying to use the whole field more, but it's costing him some productivity.
Rick
2:34
You mentioned Castellanos in your below replacement article and he does look terrible. Swinging at everything off the plate. Looks like Baez chasing. Not that long ago he was a good hitter. Do you think he eventually turns it around or totally cooked?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
If you look at Castellanos' last five seasons, he's netted 3.6 WAR, which means that in the four years besides 2021, he's at replacement level thanks to his defense and slightly below league-average offense. He's just not a very good ballplayer these days. He's only 32 so I wouldn't count him out entirely, but I suspect he's got adjustments to make if he's going to be productive again.
MikeD
2:37
Aaron Judge is on pace to hit into 48 DPs, which would shatter the MLB record, and has a BABiP 50 pts. below his career average. Cause for concern, meaning the first signs of age regression, or just a slow start?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
I wrote about Judge last week (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-look-at-aaron-judges-season-opening-slum...), and since then he's hit .333/.448/.708 with three homers, so yes, it's pretty clear that I fixed him.

Realistically, he's never going to produce like 2022 again, and his swing requires a fair bit of maintenance but I hardly think we've seen the last of him as an offensive force.
v2micca
2:40
It's early, but last nights Braves Mariners game has to be frontrunner for Pitching duel of the season.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
I had to interrupt writing about Waldron to check in on that game in case at least one of the no-hit bids got more serious. I only really saw its denouement, alas, but the graphic the Root Sports broadcast showed just before the Mariners got their first hit was interesting:
Anon21
2:43
The balls are deader. (37 PA/HR this year, 33 PA/HR last year over the same period.) Could this be disproportionately hurting teams like the Braves whose approach was optimized for the livelier ball? Just trying to understand why Acuña, Riley, and Olson are all doing poorly and seemingly getting worse.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
I don't think that teams really plan their construction around the liveliness of the ball, which we've seen can change from year to year. Somewhat on the note of the ball, I will be having a look at the early-season home run situation later this week.
Sodo Mojo
2:48
The Mariner's offense has been fairly woeful so far this year.  Do you think Garver, Raley, and Polanco will rebound or are the Mariners going to have to do some significant shopping at the deadline?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
The whole offense has mostly been bad; even Julio Rodríguez has an 88 wRC+ right now. I strongly suspect that regardless of whether those particular hitters rebound, if the Mariners are contending for a playoff spot, Jerry Dipoto will do some shopping.
M’s Fan
2:52
Once Woo returns, do the the M’s have the best rotation in baseball?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
They project to have the second-highest WAR of any rotation for the rest of the season, so I'd say that they're in the running for the title of "best"
Vance
2:57
With Holiday sent down, what do you think the chances are that Baltimore calls up Mayo or Norby over the next month or two to take Urias’s at-bats?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
More likely Mayo (who's playing 3B) than Norby (who's playing 2B) if we're just talking about Urias' playing time, but I wouldn't be tremendously surprised if Holliday is back before either is called up.
BLEES
3:01
Which NL team outside of Atlanta and the Dodgers has the best shot to secure a bye this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
Our Playoff Odds give the Cubs and Phillies the best chances (13.4% and 12.1%) but my gut says the latter has a better chance. They're the stronger ballclub of the two and i just don't see the NL Central producing one of the league's top two teams.
danny
3:04
is Jo Adell finally breaking out offensively? not too much data yet but xwoba looking great and k rate drop especially encouraging
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