JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/29/22

Jay Jaffe

2:01

Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to what is going to be an abbreviated version of the usual festivities, as I have to be out the door at about 3:15 ET.

2:02

The quick housekeeping: My week featured pieces on the Hall of Fame's Era Committee shakeup https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hall-of-fame-shakes-up-its-era-committ..., Mike Trout's hot start https://blogs.fangraphs.com/amid-fits-and-starts-mike-trout-might-be-g..., Bryce Harper's elbow https://blogs.fangraphs.com/checking-in-on-bryce-harper-full-time-desi... and more.

Travis

2:03

You buying Kyle Wright? Anyone planning on a Wright article? I’m curious if the changes he made are sustainable.

Jay Jaffe

2:07

I haven't had a chance to lay eyes on Wright but I know people are talking about his hot start. He's been lit up at the major league level before, but the Braves thought highly enough of him to make him a top-5 pick five years ago. We know pitching development is non-linear, so it shouldn't be a shock when a guy takes a big leap forward, especially when it comes with a jump in velocity — often suggesting cleaner mechanics and possibly better command as well. I imagine we'll have coverage of him soon enough, either from me or someone else

Chip

2:08

Should Yankee fans stop whining about their team now? Or is there something else they should be angry about?

Jay Jaffe

2:10

They should be comforted by the strong start, but I think they have reason to be concerned about the team's catching situation, the overreliance upon aging players, and the fact that they didn't land one of the star shortstops who hit the market. As irate as they were in the spring? No, but I think ownership could be doing more to fortify this team (even given their huge payroll).

Guest

2:12

Eric Hosmer: Great start, unsustainable BABIP
Jurickson Profar: Great start, ridiculously low BABIP
Hosmer doesn't seem to be a different hitter, so is he really just lucky? And is it possible Profar is a different hitter now and actually has some upside left?

Jay Jaffe

2:15

.472 BABIP for Hosmer! and a 3.1 GB/FB ratio! He's pulling the ball A LOT more (47.3%, up 17 points from last year) and it does seem to be paying off, in that his .330 xBA and .491 xSLG are quite good. I wouldn't hold out a ton of hope for sustainability, though. i still don't know what to make of Profar but I don't think either his 152 wRC+ or .186 BABIP are very representative. Might be one to look at next week.

pak

2:16

Hi Jay, I’m wondering if Joey Wendle is worth some comments or even a write up. The Marlins are playing him to his strengths against righties, but after 58 PAs, his K% is about 10% (23% last year.) Change of approach at the plate? He also has 4 SBs in April. Thanks for your time.

Jay Jaffe

2:17

He's swinging more often yet missing a lot less, which is interesting. Well ahead of of his x-stats including a .366 xSLG. I'll need to see a lot more before I'm convinced.

John

2:18

Charlie Morton has 2x start next week. Would you roll with him or Alex Wood vs STL?

Jay Jaffe

2:20

The Cardinals have a 150 wRC+ against lefties so far., so under normal circumstances I'd roll with Morton, but he's off to a rough start so far and I don't know what the matchups are. That's the solve-for-x variable.

tony la bussa

2:21

you seen CHW’s xstats vs their actual stats? they’re missing 150 pts of slugging as a team lol

Jay Jaffe

2:22

Wow. Everybody is in the red in terms of SLG - xSLG except for Cleveland (.002), and MLB as a whole is down 63 points so bear that in mind.

You can find the MLB averages atop this page, which is handy https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/expected_statistics

Mr Baseball

2:23

Bob Uecker still great.... how about a Brewers World Series for him in 2022?

Jay Jaffe

2:23

I have no objection to good things happening to Bob Uecker, who's one of the greats

Matt (Oceanside)

2:23

Hey Jay, hope you are doing well! I know you aren't the prospect guy, but Ben said we would be getting the Dodgers' prospect list this week....it's Friday.... hep me hep me :)

Jay Jaffe

2:23

Sorry. I don't know what's going down in that department.

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

2:24

Doesn't really seem like Stanton will make the Hall eh?

Jay Jaffe

2:25

If he stays healthy he's still got a very good shot at 500 HR (he's at 350) and at least some shot at 600. He's not in great shape as far as WAR/JAWS but the qualitative aspect of his home runs will be worth a little something extra

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

2:25

I'm intrigued by the Dave Stieb bandwagon. What is the most important thing it can be doing to help him get on the next ballot?

Jay Jaffe

2:26

Getting on the Contemporary Ballot this November would be a good start, because you can't get elected if you're not on the ballot. I still think it's going to take a longer time than a single appearance, though, and the competition for ballot space and attention is going to be particularly fierce under this new format.

Nick

2:27

have you had Alewife beer? Love it!

Jay Jaffe

2:29

I've had one or two Alewifes but I don't seem to have logged them in Untappd. Would be great if I started seeing their stuff at the grocery store

108stitch

2:30

whats up with Trevor Story

Jay Jaffe

2:31

What did he get, like 2 weeks of spring training? Signing with a new team and moving to a new position with very little time to acclimate is a tall order.

I wouldn't jump out the window yet

glt4dc

2:32

I'm familiar with how Ted Williams, famously, didn't win the MVP in 1941. But why didn't he win in 1942, he looks like a stronger candidate across the board compared to the MVP winner that year, Joe Gordon. https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1942.shtml

Jay Jaffe

2:34

Williams did not get along great with some of the sportswriters of the day, so that didn't help his cause in MVP voting. Not sure whether that was the year that Boston writer Dave Egan left him off his ballot entirely but according to lore his doing so one year cost Williams an award.

bosoxforlife

2:34

Do you think that putting humidors in all 30 parks is playin g a major role in the decline of HR's. It is clear the ball is not carrying.

Jay Jaffe

2:36

It may very well be a contributing factor, and so might the use of the single less-bouncy ball that was introduced last year (though it apparently wasn't the only version of the ball used). Eno Sarris and Ken Rosenthal had a look at home run rates and the downturn at the Athletic https://theathletic.com/3272450/2022/04/26/baseballs-arent-flying-as-f...

take-home quote:

"All of that should mean that the humidors have been dampening offense by reducing the balls’ bounciness, because of the current state of humidity around the league. The deadened ball now fully adopted by the league is reducing the balls’ bounciness as well. The humidor and ball may also be reducing offense by the way they interact, increasing drag by increasing the seam height.

"Yet, the effects might be reversed as the more humid months come and the humidor instead dries up the balls. And the two-ball controversy last season, along with the length of time necessary to test and implement a new ball, likely means the league will not make an adjustment with the ball or humidor in the middle of the season."

bushupking

2:37

What does Jo Adell's declining strikeout rate over the past 10 days or so tell us, if anything?

Jay Jaffe

2:38

that maybe forming an opinion about a player — especially a highly-regarded 23-year-old with comparatively little major league experience — after two weeks of play under less-than-ideal circumstances isn't the best way to go?

2:39

Just gonna start tapping this sign:

Not every young player is a finished product and this year's early season is pretty extraordinary given the compressed nature of spring training.

StickyStuff

2:40

Is a major crackdown coming now that video has surfaced of Cole wiping sticky stuff on his butt? When will MLB get to the bottom of this?

Jay Jaffe

2:40

Crackdowns are rarely caused by a single instance of anything

I haven't heard anything about any impending crackdown, either

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