JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/25/19

Jay Jaffe

12:02

Good afternoon folks, and welcome to today's chat. I've been buried in studying career strikeout rates and totals in anticipation of CC Sabathia's 3,000th K, which did not go off last night (hency my shelving the piece until next week, most likely). Anyway, on with the show.

Skip

12:02

I purchased your book from an online discount book outlet. I saved a ton of money. Then it occurred to me, are you fairly compensated for that purchase? I assume the copies (they had around 100 available) was purchased in bulk from the original purveyor of the book but I have no idea how that works in terms of royalties. Am I a jerk for trying to save some cash?

Jay Jaffe

12:07

First off, thanks for your support! I appreciate you taking the time not only to read but to think about your purchase decision, even if you did go with the lowest price (as I quite often do myself).

Basically, the way it works with The Cooperstown Casebook is that I was given a significant advance up front by the publisher, which means that I don't see any royalties until that figure is reached. And like most books, my sales have not yet reached that mark (in part because the book has not come out in paperback, though I'd make less on those copies). So I wouldn't sweat the decision too much. I do like it when people choose to support independent bookstores in purchasing the Casebook. You can do so via indiebound.com to find, say, a local one near you; I fulfill requests for signed copies at a bookstore near me in Brooklyn, Greenlight Bookstore. https://cooperstowncasebook.com/2017/07/21/signed-copies-of-the-cooper...

New York Railriders

12:07

Do the Yankees have the best AAA lineup in the majors? How have the injuries not stopped yet. Good lord.

Jay Jaffe

12:08

Am I the new Jonah Keri? I wrote about Clint Frazier earlier this week and now he's on the IL.

BenZ

12:09

I know they are all somewhat longshots, but how would you rank Jon Lester, Cole Hamels, and David Price in likelihood of reaching the Hall?

Jay Jaffe

12:16

Tough to handicap but you're right, they're long shots. They all have at least one World Series ring and have pitched in multiple World Series. Price is the only one with a Cy Young, which helps him, and he's the youngest (33 versus 35 for the other two). They're all pretty even in terms of ERA+ (Lester 122, 124 for the other two), and Lester is well ahead in wins (178 to 159 for Hamels, 144 for Price), while Hamels has the nod in K's (2,445 to like 2200something for Lester and 1800something for Price). From a JAWS standpoint, Hamels (47.6 JAWS, 88th) is well ahead of both Lester (39.8, 151st) and Price (35.3, 198th). For comparison, Jack Morris is 168th at 38.0. I don't think any of them come close to what Kershaw, Verlander, Greinke and Scherzer — or even Sabathia, with his inevitable 250 win/3000 strikeout combo (and 51.2 JAWS) bring to the table, but if I had to pick one, it's price because he's the youngest.

12:17

Not baseball-related, but do you watch Jeopardy? Have you been following James Holzhauer's incredible run?

Jay Jaffe

12:18

It's been about 20 years since I watched much in the way of Jeopardy, but my wife (Emma Span) has been on, as have a couple of other friends. I did see that this guy is kicking ass all over the place but I'm not invested in it.

The 6ix

12:18

Skip isn't a jerk for saving some money, at least he bought the book. Libraries are jerks for letting multiple people read a book for free; it's downright communist.

Jay Jaffe

12:19

Libraries are great! More people should use them! Everybody should fund them to a greater extent! I have no objection to anybody checking out my book from the library at all.

BenZ

12:19

Will Andrelton Simmons finish his career as the greatest Simmons in baseball history, 2nd greatest (after Al), or 3rd greatest (after Al and Ted)?

Jay Jaffe

12:23

Tall order, given that we're talking about a Hall of Famer who's 7th in JAWS among left fielders and a should-be-HOFer who's 10th among catchers. I do think that Andrelton is on his way; his improved hitting and fantastic defense is going to push him past Vizquel in the JAWS rankings by the end of this season, his age-29.

Andy

12:23

Does the Darling v. Dykstra thing change your opinion of either of them?

Jay Jaffe

12:26

While I think Darling has put his ex-teammates on the spot with his allegations, the reports of Dykstra's reprehensible behavior on so many fronts are so well-documented that I'm hardly surprised to learn of yet another one.

Chris S

12:26

I know Vlad Jr's debut is going to be highly anticipated, but with batters it is hard to understand what makes up a good debut or start to a career. With Strasburg we got to watch him fan 14 batters in his first start but we there is a chance Vlad doesnt even get a pitch to swing at tonight (not on purpose just by fluke) and there are no fireworks and fans would be disappointed by the debut. What do you have to say to fans about maybe grouping a few games together before gushing over, or being disappointed by his debut?

Jay Jaffe

12:28

I think most actual fans understand all of this, that baseball is a game of intermittent opportunities and repeated failures, and that even homering in your first at-bat guarantees you nothing. By the time they get to the majors, every player already understands this, particularly one who's the son of a big leaguer.

Gaslamp Gary

12:29

Any concerns about Manny Machado's slow start? His hard contact rate is higher than his career average...

Jay Jaffe

12:32

His Statcast numbers (including their version of Hard Hit Rate (95 mph EV or higher) are down across the board, his groundball rate is up, his chase rate is up, though his swing rate is more or less unchanged. He doesn't quite fit into what Eno Sarris found here https://theathletic.com/928555/2019/04/17/sarris-how-bryce-harper-and-... but I'd guess that he's pressing, which isn't uncommon for a player moving to a new team.

James

12:33

The Astros lead the league in wRc+ but are 13th in runs per game. Is this just bad situational luck?

Jay Jaffe

12:35

I'm not really sure but a quick glance says that yes, their wRC+ with RISP (118) or Men on (109) is lower than their overall mark (131), which is the figure that's much more likely to regress. Remarkably, they've got 10 players with a WRC+ above 100, and only 3, all with 37 PA or fewer, below.

munceman

12:36

how long before Verdugo replaces Pollock fulltime?

Jay Jaffe

12:37

With that contract? We're talking years. It's probably Chris Taylor, who has a 46 wRC+, who's in real danger of losing time to Verdugo.

Gaslamp Gary

12:37

Felix Hernandez looked rejuvenated yesterday. Thoughts on his new pitching approach? Could he still be a decent pitcher for the next 2-3 years?

Jay Jaffe

12:39

It's one start, and when I looked at his game log, I found that the last time he threw more than six innings and allowed two or fewer runs... was last August 28, also at Petco. Let's hope he's turned the corner, but this may just be a blip.

LScott

12:42

A pitcher's pitch count is used to determine how long a starter can go in games. With that being the case, why dont we keep track of total number of pitches thrown and use that info to determine a pitcher's season workload rather than using innings pitched? A 10 pitch inning is a lot less taxing than a 30 pitch inning.

Jay Jaffe

12:43

allow me to go out on a limb and suggest that teams are actually more meticulous about tracking pitcher workloads than the general public. Some even track the number of bullpen/warm-up pitches.

Pat Borders Patrol

12:43

Also, as a long time IPA fan who has lived in Canada for the past four years, which IPA should be the first I drink when I return to New York this September?! (Apparently some Upstate breweries have been making some tasties since I was last there....)

Jay Jaffe

12:46

If you can get your hands on some Other Half — mainly by going to their taproom in Red Hook (Brooklyn) — that's the place to start. They're constantly tinkering, but anything with "Green" in the title is a good place to start. Three's Brewing in Brooklyn is a personal favorite if you're going to hit a brewpub and want some decent food and outdoor space. If you're buying at a well-stocked grocery store, Barrier's stuff, particularly Money, is more accessible than the others. That and Three's Unreliable Narrator are my two favorites among those I get to consume with any regularity.

Pat Borders Patrol

12:46

How does one gain access to the massive archive of source material in the HoF? Is there a person to contact for such things?

Jay Jaffe

12:48

Start here https://baseballhall.org/discover-more/education/research. It's much easier if you visit than if you try to do it remotely. The area for researchers to use is pretty small, and has some stringent rules, but the staff is helpful and knowledgeable about how to access the massive wealth of material.

Tom

12:49

If he hadn't had the injuries and we were to assume his level of play would have stayed high during the missed years, would Adam Wainwright be a Hall of Famer?

Jay Jaffe

12:53

Good question. Wainwright had four 6-WAR (b-ref version ) seasons from 2007-14, which means they wouldn't be out of place in a HOF peak score, but he never exceeded that, and his next-best seasons are like 3 WAR (including offense), which is a pretty big drop-off even before considering his struggles of the past five years.

Blue Jay

12:53

If you had to put odds on Vlad Jr's HoF chance, what would it be?

Jay Jaffe

12:53

He's debuting at 20 years old, and I actually wrote something about just that here last year: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/acunas-hall-of-fame-chance...

Pat Borders Patrol

12:54

I thought Manny was already above 1.0 WAR...not exactly a sloooooooow start....

Jay Jaffe

12:55

0.7 by fWAR (with 3.3 UZR), 1.0 bWAR (with 6 DRS). To extent there's concern, it's w/r/t the modest offense (103 wRC+)

Ben

12:55

You may have answered this before, butdo you think the HOF will soon adjust counting stat standards for admission? 300 wins for pitchers are ever more rare - shouldn't 250 be the new benchmark?

Jay Jaffe

12:58

Of the six pitchers that have gone into the Hall since Maddux and Glavine were elected in 2014, one has 300+ (Randy Johnson), two others have 250+ (Jack Morris, ugh, and Mike Mussina), and the other three have 200+ (Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz and Roy Halladay). Schilling, who's next (and worthy of a double-ugh for non-performance reasons), will be in that last group, so I think it's fair to say that for those who are concerned, the shift has already happened.

Something

12:59

You should not drink IPAs, so many better more unique beers out there

Load More Messages

Connecting…

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Jay Jaffe hosts a chat