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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/19/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Hello and welcome to the latest edition of my Thursday chat. I think I injured my shoulder patting myself on the back for predicting Bryan Price would get fired back in 2015, and every subsequent year since. But other than that, i'm doing well...
Wes
12:01
Given the expectations for the Reds this season, how bad of a manager do you have to be to get fired after 18 games? What else was going on in the clubhouse?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:03
As somebody who long ago failed to see the logic of continuing with Price, I'm clearly not the best expert to ask about his continued employment, but to me, any time you fire a manager this early, it's an indictment of the decision makers above (unless there's a specific, precipitating incident). Even 3-15 — if you're a rebuilding team, you have a plan for the year or you don't. And I'm not clear on what the Reds' plan was here that necessitates a change now when it didn't in October.
Joshua
12:03
What is your favorite IPA?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:05
Pliny the Elder and Heady Topper are the two favorites, but I'm lucky if I get to taste both in the same year given their scarcity around these parts of Brooklyn. My local go-to lately has been Threes Brewing's Unreliable Narrator, a dank, tropical IPA that they release about every month or so and deliver to me by the case.
Slapshot
12:05
What are your thoughts on NEIPAs?  If you like them, do you have any particular favorites?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
I generally like the trend — they don't maim my tongue if I'm having more than one the way some WC IPAs do — but a lot of the actual New England ones that really get people jazzed up are hard to come by here. Barrier Money is another local favorite, and any Singlecut IPA that has a fragment of rock lyrics (Soflty Sopken Magic Spells, Weird and Gilly, etc) is pretty high on my list.
Jon
12:08
Does this make Votto available?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
Who's going to take on the ~$130 million he's owed?
Schmoo
12:09
Got to say, Jay - you were delightful with Carson on FGAudio, looking forward to more regular appearances
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
Thank you! That was a very relaxed podcast session, almost goofy (at least on my end). I don't get to do these often because I don't have the time to plan, record and engineer them myself, but I'm always willing to find time to be on one if somebody else is doing the heavy lifting.
Rock Kickass
12:10
Do you believe in Berrios or Snells breakout more?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
I've been on the Berrios bandwagon for a long time, in part because going back to the days when Brad Radke was wearing shot pants, I've written at least 273 articles about how the Twins never have any starters who can miss bats. And he can.
Rick
12:12
Half Acre in Chicago is quite possibly the best brewery in America...just sayin'.  Seasonal IPA varietals include Gone Away and Vallejo.  Lovely stuff.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
I have a nearby grocery store that gets me the good Half Acre stuff that nobody else in the neighborhood seems to know about. Gone Away makes regular appearances in the Jaffe-Span fridge, and Vallejo gets there too.
Coner
12:13
Toronto Blue Jays, Actually Good?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
I was surprised by their strong projection https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-talk-about-the-jays-promising-pro... but a closer look brought me around to the idea. The rotation has underperformed, though (4.72 ERA, 4.83 FIP), and that needs to right itself or there's gonna be some heartache eventually.
Pope Ian
12:17
Do you prefer to use Fangraphs WAR or baseball-reference WAR?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
It depends. I do all my Hall stuff using B-Ref WAR because i think pitchers deserve more credit for run prevention than just the peripherals — particularly the further you go back, when strikeouts and homers were relatively rare. I'm not about to switch over with that stuff and suddenly make years worth of writing (including The Cooperstown Casebook) not jibe with my new Hall stuff.

I tend to prefer DRS to UZR, too. That said, I haven't really chafed at having to use FG WAR here; i just tend to cite more numbers when i'm discussing pitchers in order to put their valuations in perspective. In short, they're both good tools so long as you understand their limitations.
Sean
12:21
Best IPA's - Heady Topper, Focal Banger, Other Half IPA lineup  especially All Green Everything. NJ has also had a IPA revolution with great IPA's coming out of Carton, Magnify, Kane breweries.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
Love Other Half's stuff and live within walking distance. That said, having a young child means a complete and total unwillingness to stand in a goddamn line for 2 hours to get their can releases. The marginal value of their beer vs. some of the other locals I listed isn't worth the extra investment in time
Schmoo
12:23
How strictly do you follow the "stouts only in the winter" philosophy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
Not at all. I'll drink a stout in July if I'm in the mood, especially if it's a rare one on a beer list. that said, I generally don't go for the higher ABV ones, like the Russian Imperials, in the summer
Moltar
12:24
Why is the beer at citi field so dramatically better than at yankee stadium?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
The amenities and ballpark experience in general are far superior at Citi than Yankee Stadium. If I understand it correctly, the Yankees are very much in the pocket of AB InBev which means they're prohibited from bringing in certain competitors' beers. It's a sore spot, because i have a partial season ticket package to the Yankees and have for 21 seasons now (first game tomorrow night, brrrr).
otis
12:26
Paul Goldschmidt’s wRC+, as of today: 161.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
Gotta write about those early season slumps when you can, and then take credit for the turnaround. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/paul-goldschmidt-and-small-sample-thea...

Right after I wrote about Longoria and McCutchen's early struggles, they went out and combined for 5 hits with Longo homering. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/not-so-fresh-starts-in-san-francisco/ It's apparently a gift I have. Or just regression.
Bort
12:28
Do we need to start a "Free Austin Barnes" movement? The guy isn't getting anywhere near enough playing time.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
Yasmani Grandal and Chase Utley have both been swinging a hot bat to start the season, and that's cut into Barnes' opportunity during Justin Turner's absence. That said, Utley's played enough third base that using him some there instead of struggling Logan Forsythe, with Barnes getting more PT at 2B, might have helped the team's offense in the early going.
Robbber
12:31
If Ohtani is pitching in an American league game and not in the batting lineup, could he be inserted as a pinch hitter?  Would he have to be removed as a pitcher?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
As I understand it, if he's pitching, the only way he can hit is if the DH takes the field; Ohtani would bat in that spot.

So, hypothetically, if Ohtani is pitching and Albert Pujols is DHing and Jefrey Marte is playing 1B, telling Pujols to grab his glove in advance of a Marte at-bat would actually work, if you wanted Ohtani to bat there. I'm skeptical the Angels will try this anytime soon. Anybody who's an authority on the rule book can correct me here.
Keefths
12:36
Whats up with LoMo ? He doesnt like the cold weather ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
I'll go with Didn't Sign a Contract Until February 28. Between the physical and mental aspects of that late start, getting out of his well-established routines, I think that could lead to some early struggles.
BJOGC
12:37
Do people call you Jay or Jay Jaffe when they say your name? You have a "full name" sounding name
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
I've had people in my life who used Jayjaffe as one word, often repeated multiple times, to get my attention. "jayjaffe jayjaffe jayjaffe, does this thing look infected?" What am I, a doctor?
Tom
12:39
Will we ever truly know the impact of a catcher? Much has been made, for instance, of Yadier Molina's pitch calling and pitcher handling. Will we ever know his and other catcher's impact on the game?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
I think we're getting closer. I was very interested in the mixed-model stuff Max Marchi was doing at Baseball Prospectus before he got snapped up by the Indians and am surprised nobody's taken up that baton with the same vigor that they did his retro-framing work.  https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/16096/the-stats-go-mar...
Justin
12:42
So this Judge fellow is Actually Very Good, huh?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
Quite, even if he's not on pace to hit 50+ homers again. I think he'll have his hot and cold spells like anyone else, but there's nothing quite like having two healthy shoulders when you're swinging a bat
Steven Matz
12:43
Am I still one of the most promising lefty starters in the game?
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