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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/18/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the latest edition of our usual Thursday chat. The questions in the queue are piling up, so without further ado...
Corbin Burnes
12:01
Do I have a Home Run Problem?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Oh, indeed. 11 home runs in just 17.2 innings, and from among just 19 flyballs. I've got an entry devoted to Burnes in the forthcoming companion to yesterday's piece, which will be titled "Let’s Get Weird, Again: Extreme Pitcher Stats So Far"
stever20
12:02
What do you make of Chris Sale?  His career in April normally is pretty good(before this year 2.82 ERA).  So it's not like he normally starts slowly.  Even brought in his personal catcher and that didn't help.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
I'm more worried about Sale with each passing start, but I think it really comes down to a lack of arm strength brought about by a slow build up this winter. He's just not the same pitcher if he can't get his velocity up to where it normally lives, and right now, his fastball is getting tattooed for a 1.095 SLG and a 322 wRC+ (also in today's forthcoming piece).

Rather than sending him out there every fifth day, I do think the Red Sox should DL him and send him back to extended spring training to ramp up, because he's not helping them by getting hammered each time out.
Tel
12:06
What’s the deal with the playoff odds graphs?  The Yankees beat the Red Sox 8-0 on Tuesday and their playoff odds went down from 91.1% to 84.4%?  The Red Sox went up from 52.8% to 54.4% or so yesterday but this morning are back to 50.7% in the odds numbers dated yesterday.  I know things change based on playing time estimates etc., but what’s the point of a graph if you can’t gloat over your team crushing their rival and moving the needle on the odds?  Seems like if you’re putting up a graph the changes should be based on how the team is playing rather than how Fangraphs staff changed the team’s playing time estimates.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
If you're worrying about daily fluctuations in playoff odds at this stage, might I suggest closing your browser and taking a long walk to enjoy the improving weather? You can yell at clouds, which is 100% guaranteed to be more constructive than sweating the changes.

Remember, the odds are produced by running 10,000 simulations of the season from the point in question. From day to day, the outcomes might be a little different even with the same parameters.
US Attorney General
12:10
Also, how about that Anthony Rendon?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
Incredibly underrated player. It seems strange that Rendon has never made an All-Star team. A quick look at his splits by half reminds that in one of his four big seasons (2016), he was off to a slow start (99 wRC+), so his getting passed over makes sense in isolation. Still, a guy with three six-win seasons on his resumé deserves better.
Ben
12:16
What is the worst the Yankees can play during this injury stretch that they can come back in the AL East race behind the Rays? .500?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
In Wild Card era history we've seen the Yankees win the division after starting 10-15 or 11-14, and that was with far fewer injuries than they have now. So long as guys come back from the IL and are productive, I think they'll be fine, and the fact that the Red Sox are in an even deeper hole certainly helps their cause.
Lou
12:18
Should the Commissioner give extra punishment to pitchers who bean players for bat flipping?  If we want baseball to be more fun and attract more players I think so.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
Bat flip or no, my view is that pitchers who intentionally hit batters should be suspended for a minimum of 20 days, which amounts to a three-game suspension. Whittle it down to 15 on appeal, for a two-game suspension, and teams will still feel the bite.
KJ
12:21
what to expect from Tyler White moving forward? looked like a guy who was ready to step up but Astros not playing him enough-- maybe deservedly so?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
My understanding of White's role at the time I wrote our Positional Power Rankings for first base (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-positional-power-rankings-first-base/) was that he'd be the team's primary DH and backup first baseman. So far, he hasn't hit much, and the Astros have used a rotating cast for the DH, with White drawing just 6 starts out of 18. Maybe Hinch has just been trying to keep the likes of Springer, Brantley, and Altuve (who have combined for 7 starts) fresher in the early going by giving them half-days off? I haven't really followed closely. I do see that White is hitting a ton of grounders. He's capable of better, and when his swing comes around I suspect he'll get his reps.
Rey Diablo
12:24
More worried about Sale or Nola?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
Ask me after I've read Dan Szymborski's forthcoming piece on the latter, because I really don't know what to make of his start and haven't had a chance to investigate it for myself.
Sale
12:26
"I do think the Red Sox should DL him " JAFFE FAIL IT'S IL
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
What's the time? It's time to get IL...
Sale
12:27
... oh no, that "Jaffe Fail" thing was a joke. I meant to say that and then say, "But Sale got his velocity back Tuesday and was still really awful. So there's the velo and also the command, and it's hard to fix both while on the mound."
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
No worries, I took it as a joke. Velocity coming back is one thing, but we all know that a pitcher can overexert himself in the name of higher mph readings while compromising his command, and I think that much of Sale's problems have to do with that as well. And I still think the fix has to happen somewhere besides a major league mound while the team is sinking in the standings.
Ben Zobrist
12:30
Doctor, my slugging percentage really hurts. I know I'm nearly 40, but I still slugged .440 last year. Am I just getting unlucky with a seemingly endless number of hard hit outs, or is it time to kick off the
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
At 37, Zobrist's slow start is cause for some concern, most notably because his exit velo is down, from 89.4 mph last year to 86.3 this year — a drop from the 64th percentile to the 21st. Meanwhile his hard hit rate is down to the 9th percentile and he's walking 15.5% of the time, and swinging just 29.8% of the time, all of which has me wondering about whether he's trying to compensate for a slower bat.
There will be a brief pause as I position myself to tackle this spicy chicken banh mi...
Vlad Sr
12:37
Did you see what my large adult son did in Pawtucket last night ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
LScott
12:38
With Todd Frazier and eventually Jed Lowrie coming back, will JD Davis be the odd man out and sent to AAA?  How do you see the Mets handling the infield logjam when they both return?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
Davis is carrying a 147 wRC+ so I don't see him being sent anywhere. It wouldn't surprise me if Dominic Smith gets sent down (he's got a 199 wRC+, but in just 24 PA) or traded, with Frazier becoming the backup corner infielder for the moment. Lowrie won't be back for awhile — he apparently just started taking live BP again — but it's quite a puzzle the Mets have on their hands.
johnprestongomez
12:43
What do you think about Jeff McNeil, all he's done is hit in the majors but those skyhigh baibs make it hard to accurately gauge who he is. 3 war player?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
I don't expect him to maintain a .349 AVG and 146 wRC+ (his career marks to date) but I think we've seen enough to say that the Mets have themselves a nice, above-average — or perhaps better – player on their hands. By definition, the likelihood is still higher that he's a 3-win guy than a 5-win one, but he's impressive as hell so far.
Tyler
12:46
Hi Jay, on the new Plus Stats tab on the Fangraphs leaderboard do you know what is and is not park adjusted? That is if anything other than wRC+ is.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
this is what Tyler is talking about, introduced yesterday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/new-fangraphs-plus-stats/

My understanding is that the new suite of plus stats isn't park-adjusted at the moment. It's something we may get to, in time, but already we've provided something that's new and, I think, useful and cool

I can claim some responsibility for this, actually. Before i came to FanGraphs — back when I was working on The Cooperstown Casebook, even — I was publicly begging for K+, a league-adjusted strikeout rate, so as to better contextualize the accomplishments of the Sales and Scherzers and Kimbrels, and going back the likes of Dazzy Vance, Nolan Ryans and Walter Johnson. David Appelman was enthusiastic about the idea, and cooked up a K+ spreadsheet that I've used a couple times, but implementing it at the site level simply took some time to rise on the to-do list.

I'll have some fun with the K+ stuff next week.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:57
Please opine on the Brewers pitchers' aggregate hitting.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
.375/.429/.594, 164 wRC+ with two homers in 36 PA, wow. It's my carefully considered opinion that such a performance is unsustainable, but still, the top-to-bottom difference in WAR between the best-hitting staffs and the worst is about two wins, which could very much be the difference between claiming a playoff spot or staying home in October.
(forgot to post the question first, fixed now).
David
12:58
What are your thoughts on Erik Swanson? Looked good in his first start.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
I didn't see his start, and I don't know anything about him beyond what I've read from prospect experts. Kiley and Eric threw a 40+ FV on him and ranked him 12th in what's currently the worst system in the game. (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-25-prospects-seattle-mariners/). Plus fastball, chance for average slider and changeup with above-average command. Rule of thumb is that any pitcher is going to need more than that to stick in a rotation, but if one of his secondary pitches develops into something more, he could be a useful reliever. As to the specifics re Swanson, ask somebody more expert than me.
Matt W
1:02
How is Jason Vargas still a thing?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
Have you ever known the Wilpon-era Mets to be ahead of the curve in conceding sunk costs?
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