JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/1/22

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/1/22

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Jay Jaffe

2:01

Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the April 1 edition of my chat. This April fool is still recovering from having accidentally sent my mom's birthday gift to my Brooklyn apartment instead of her Salt Lake City residence.

In housekeeping news, my second entry in our Positional Power Rankings series went live this morning https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-right-field...

2:02

I also did first basemen https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-first-base/. And before that I was visiting my folks and skiing (advance celebration for my mom's 80th bday), which is why you haven't seen much of me on the home page lately

2:03

But... that's about to change. I'll cover the Pollock/Kimbrel trade for Monday — had to see it about 18 times before I was willing to concede it was real and not an April 1 conspiracy on the part of the industry's newsbreakers.

2:04

In other news, happy Jon Spencer and the Hitmakers release day to those celebrating! https://jonspencerthehitmakers.bandcamp.com/album/spencer-gets-it-lit

And now, on with the show...

Rachel

2:05

deGrom, how worried are you? Thanks!

Jay Jaffe

2:05

Shoulder? Worried.

2:06

He's the best pitcher in baseball but that consistently high velo is going to take its toll on his arm one way or another

South Side Life

2:07

Not that the White Sox weren't frontrunners in the AL Central already...but what's the ramifications of the Pollock trade?

Jay Jaffe

2:10

l'll have more on this on Monday but it shores up an area of weakness at least somewhat, though Pollock doesn't have much experience in right field and Vaughn is projected to make some advances, and he's one of the guys losing playing time. The bullpen is the weaker for it, though that was a pretty pricey setup man to have around, and things never really jelled for Kimbrel in that role

Gord

2:10

Do you think the Mariners should try and trade for another starter like Manaea or Montas or should they roll with Matt Brash and his filthy slider?

Jay Jaffe

2:12

You can never have too much pitching, and counting on a guy who has topped out with half a season of Double-A to be a key contributor is generally folly. Either of those guys would be significant upgrades.

Blake Bell (in Toronto)

2:13

Hi Jay. Given the uptick in examining Dave Stieb's career, what's a path/timeline for Stieb to be considered for Cooperstown? Thx!

Jay Jaffe

2:15

Assuming Stieb is in the Modern Baseball bucket, for players who made their greatest impact between 1970–1987, he would be eligible for consideration to appear on the 2024 ballot, to be voted upon in December 2023. That era is stacked, though, and by the traditional numbers, he's got a very uphill battle to get on that ballot.

2:16

Speaking of Stieb and our mutual nemesis:

Watched Part 3 of @jon_bois' great Dave Stieb series, and in addition to getting to see the part about when he finally finished his long-sought no-hitter, I learned that Jack Morris was *an even bigger asshole* than I had previously believed.

This is how baseball moves.

Captain Ahab: The Story of Dave Stieb, Part 3 | Dorktown

youtube.com/watch?v=eaTCyQ…

Robert

2:17

Any players you are targeting far ahead of their ADP?

Jay Jaffe

2:17

I haven't played fantasy baseball in over a decade, haven't written about it in almost that long. You're barking up the wrong tree, I'm afraid.

ben simmons’ jumper

2:18

is it just me or does the kimbrel for pollock swap seem to favor chw a lot?

Jay Jaffe

2:19

I think it's a good deal for both sides. LA gets to give more at-bats to Lux, Taylor, and Muncy and takes 60-70 innings away from their lesser relievers.

2:21

as to why the Dodgers didn't just re-sign Jansen at that price, well, now they've lowered the payroll and gained a draft pick, which — if you can distance yourself from the sentimental aspects of retaining Jansen — is a nice little maneuver, all else being equal (which it may not be).

Again, more to come on Monday

Holding My Breath on deGrom

2:21

Should we as fans be sad that umps being given mics to explain replay calls was instituted at the same time that Joe West retired?

Jay Jaffe

2:22

Let us not look gift horses in the mouth. Joe West has retired!!! And we're getting improved communication from umpires!!! Everybody wins until we have to hear from Angel Hernandez.

Steve

2:23

Did you see the photo that showed Citi Field’s 2021 beer menu? Miller High Life is listed as a craft beer! Is the deGrom news some sort of karmic punishment?

Jay Jaffe

2:23

I know what y’all really want to know.

I strained my eyeballs rolling them at that one

2:24

nice to see Radiant Pig on the menu there. Both of those hazy IPAs are in regular rotation at Casa Jaffe-Span.

2:25

Also a big fan of Sloop's Juice Bomb IPA

Ragbrai

2:25

What does 1B in Milwaukee look like at the beginning and end of year. Does Huira take over eventually or does Telllez out play him?

Jay Jaffe

2:27

Hiura is deep in the tall grass right now and I wonder if he needs a change of scenery. Tellez, despite the mediocre numbers, hit the ball hard last year and improved his results when he got less pull-happy.

As assumptions go, I'm picking the guy whose trend arrow is pointing in the right direction to have the job at the end of the year.

Guest

2:28

Who are some under-the-radar-ish RPs that might become studs in holds leagues?

Jay Jaffe

2:28

Blake Treinen!

Sorry, that's the extent of my fantasy advice today.

Corey

2:29

I believe all the noise about top prospects making opening days rosters is not actually going to result in that many on opening day rosters, hunter greene notwithstanding. The incentives just have not changed that much. I can’t believe J-Rod, Stott, and Abrams will make OD rosters, for example. I want to be wrong. Am I wrong?

Jay Jaffe

2:30

I think you're right, sadly (I'm not sad you're right — you have the good sense to show up to a FanGraphs chat, after all — I'm sad that the industry isn't doing enough)

2:32

the math is this: if you keep the guy down long enough to game his clock and get an extra year before free agency, there's really only a small chance he claws that back by winning Rookie of the Year or placing second. Like, even in the best of circumstances, it's much less than a coin toss of a chance.

2:33

I'm not saying all of those guys will be sent down to start the year, mind you, just that this well-meaning facet of the CBA doesn't go far enough.

tz

2:33

Happy Birthday Mama Jaffe!!!

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