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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/26/24
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:02
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my pre-Opening Day chat. I'm just back from a brief ski vacation in Salt Lake City with my daughter; due to delays we didn't get home until 3 AM so forgive the cobwebs. The second of my two Positionl Power Rankings ran while I was gone, the Right Fielders https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-right-field
The first of those was, um, first base, which ran early last week https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-first-base
Anyway, on with the show...
Andrew
2:03
If it does come to light that Ohtani bet on sports, do you think the Angels are forced to vacate all their playoff wins while he was on the team?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:03
womp womp
TKDC
2:03
Over/under .5 game suspension for Ohtani when this all shakes out?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:05
Under. I think at most he'll be fined. It's a mess, and the Dodgers and Ohtani's reps handled it poorly, but the more Ippei Mizuhara's questionable past and failure to communicate what was going on comes to light, the more I'm inclined to believe that Ohtani was basically in the dark.
Von Hayes
2:06
Welcome to MLB 2024 everybody!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
Good gravy that's quite a photo. Nothing to do with baseball but too awesome not to share
The person who asks the lunch question
2:06
What's for lunch?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
waiting for a cemitas and a birria taco from the nearby Mexican place
Guest
2:06
Will the Ohtani mess cause MLB to re-think their policy around gambling on any sports, either for players or team personnel?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
I think there will be some stern lectures in every clubhouse, and I think one upshot of this is going to be more vetting of translators and more focus on what they're doing for their clients — since as multiple people familiar with Asian translators have said, handling financial stuff isn't uncommon.
Mike Trout
2:08
Is Team Shohei going hard on the lying thief allegations seems the highest risk, highest reward scenario? That's a serious accusation that will be heavily investigated.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:10
if they believe the facts are on their side,  I don't see it as that high risk.
2:13
I realize some people want to believe the worst, especially in this day and age where they've been given the permission to be their own biggest asshole selves, but I just don't think it's likely at all that Ohtani was dumb enough to jeopardize the massive earnings he stands to make by betting on baseball. Naive enough to trust a friend to handle more aspects of his life than just clubhouse interviews? That seems much more plausible
Rob
2:14
Are there any players for whom you think 2024 might represent a "make or break" year for their Hall of Fame candidacies?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
Carlos Correa needs to get back on track after a miserable season, Marcus Semien needs to keep the momentum going, Trea Turner needs to start putting up 2022-like seasons if he's ever going to have a chance. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola both need to start banking more 5+ WAR seasons. Gerrit Cole, hopefully he's not so seriously injured that he misses most or all of a season...
2:19
Oh, and Giancarlo Stanton, after all this talk about his health and swing adaptations, needs to get off the schneid
dannyrock
2:20
Is Dustin Pedroia getting your vote for the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
I don't anticipate including him on my ballot
Scott
2:22
With everyone always asking about current players Hall chances, Who would you say is a modern day “Frank White” an excellent player and perennial all star caliber player who really has no shot at the hall of fame but still should be appreciated none the less?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
Among active players with the most All-Star appearances, Salvador Perez strikes me as one who's gonna wind up outside the Hall. Not with a .300 OBP (or likely lower once it's all said and done) and -115 framing runs.
2:24
Some great moments, and i understand why Royals fans love him. I hope they build a statue for him as they've done for White.
MF Luder
2:24
Which bounce back season do you see as more likely, Giancarlo Stanton? Or Trevor Story?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
Ooh, tough call. I'll go with Story because I think I'm more prone to overrating Stanton's chances
Guest
2:26
With Lemahieu and Peraza injured and Cabrera likely more suited to a super-utility role, will the Yankees deal for someone who can play third in the near future?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
Yeah, I think they have to. They've had such a hard time keeping DJLM healthy that they can't afford to wait around for him assuming he'll be back to anything close to his best.
DisgruntledClevelander
2:30
Any teams you expect to get out to hotter starts than expected?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
if i expect them to get out to a hot start, then they wouldn't be unexpected, right?
2:32
If you're asking, "Which team(s) look underrated and will do better than projected?" I think the Orioles probably top my list.
Nolan Schaneul
2:32
What is a reasonable expectation for Schanuel going forward? Is he an everyday regular quality level of player?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
I'm not tremendously sold on him given that he barreled just 2.2% of batted balls in his stint with the Angels; given his lack of power there's a lot of pressure on his contact skills. Maybe there's a best-case John Olerud type career if the power develops but I think he's going to be more fringy.
Seager
2:35
Do you think Corey Seager's two World Series MVP awards will be a big factor his hall of fame candidacy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
yes, because it's so rare and because it helps paper over his incomplete seasons. Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, and Reggie Jackson are the only other players with two WS MVPs, so that's pretty great company.
Anon21
2:37
Let's say that tomorrow, MLB implements a 10-pitcher roster limit and a 30-day minimum stay in the minors with no exception for injury replacements, with the goal of forcing starting pitchers to pitch about 75% of innings. Many careers end in injury, but MLB stays the course. Is the game better or worse off in 10 years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
worse. Turning the game into more of a meatgrinder for pitchers ain't it.
Bryce
2:39
Who do you prefer, Luis Robert Jr. or Michael Harris II? Robert's power + defense combination is attractive, but I lean  Harris. I think I can see him easily become a top 10 player of baseball if he can lift the ball more.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
Tough call. We have Harris 3rd and Robert 5th in our PPRs https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-center-fiel.... I'd lean Harris because he's younger and has a stronger track record for health; last year was the first in which Looie Bob played even 100 games.
Jordan
2:40
why are there still a bunch of minor leaguers on the yankees team in mexico whilst most other teams have cut down their rosters?
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