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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/19/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:02
Good afternoon, folks! I'm back after a very abbreviated chat full of technical difficulties last week.
2:03
I've been kind of scarce on FanGraphs this week because I was working on the first of my two Positional Power Rankings assignments, the catchers, but I did just publish something about Jacob deGrom's Hall of Fame chances, inspired by numerous questions along those lines in this space. Enjoy! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jacob-degrom-might-be-blazing-his-way-to-c...
2:04
Also, I am pleased to announce that I'm freshly vaccinated as of yesterday! As is my wife as of today! Yaaaay! Here's hoping that if you haven't gotten your first shot, it's coming soon
And now, on with the show
mmddyyyy
2:04
So how much do you weight a pitcher's offense in their candidacy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
I don't pay a ton of mind to it except that pitchers' batting WAR is included in JAWS, because pitchers who can hit (and run the bases) well do have more value than ones who don't. Zack Greinke, who has 5.1 bWAR for example, gets a nice little bump in his JAWS thanks to his offense.
Joe Fields
2:06
What 10 active players would be on your Hall of Fame ballot as of 3/19/21?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
Hmm, let's see: Pujols, Trout, Cabrera, Kershaw, Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, Posey and Votto are all fully qualified, which is to say that they have the requisite 10 years of major league play. Mookie Betts does not (he's at 7 going on 8) but already exceeds the right field peak standard (42.4, he has 45.4) so I'd save my 10th spot for him.
Carmen Chameleon
2:10
Jay, Ben Clemens had a section in his last article saying that the indians will finish behind the royals. This hurt my feelings. Please ask Meg to Fire Ben and send the money that you save to Paul Dolan so that he can stop selling all of our talent :(
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
Ha! I'm not about to fire Ben, and it's not too hard to imagine scenarios where the Royals — who had a very good winter winter — overtake the Should-be-Spiders, who did not. Cleveland has been half-assing its outfield construction forever, it seems, and their luck when it comes to developing pitchers may not be infinite.
Dodger Fan
2:12
Loved your deGrom piece this morning! What hall odds would you give to Kenley Jansen?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:15
Thanks for the kind words on the deGrom piece. I'm not wildly optimistic on Jansen's Hall chances. While I'm hopeful he can rebound after a few meh seasons, I fear that at best he may be able to eke a couple more good ones out before slipping again
2:17
Saves aren't everything but i suspect a 21st century reliever candidate has to get to 400 at least (he's at 312), and let's face it, "remained in the bullpen while somebody else closed out the World Series" is always going to be a mild ding on his candidacy.
Re: Nats
2:17
Is there a 13-pitcher limit on rosters this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
No. That particular roster rule, which was put into place for the 2020 season prior to the pandemic, has been waived under the health and safety protocols.
Concrete fan
2:18
How do you think the AL West division race is going to develop this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
I think there's a ton of variance regarding the Astros based on their rotation and whether Altuve and Correa can stay healthy, so the A's and even the Angels have openings if they can fare better in that department. Houston's belated addition of Jake Odorizzi helps but they should have been the team to sign Jackie Bradley Jr., because I think it's a stretch for Myles Straw to be the regular center fielder.
mmddyyyy
2:21
Just about every expansion location is on a coast. How would that impact the current divisional alignments?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
I suspect that when we get to 32 teams we'll see realignment, either 4 x 8 teams or 8 x 4 teams (ugh), with Rob Manfred no doubt pushing for some kind of radical realignment that would do away with the AL/NL distinction as we know it, make all of your food taste like sand, and end life on earth within 20 years.
Nate
2:22
Have injuries killed Giancarlo Stanton’s hall chances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
His chances haven't been killed — the guy still has a shot at 500 or even 600 homers, and he's already banked 41.0 bWAR — but significantly wounded. The bat speed is still there, as evidence by last October''s flurry of homers and those eye-opening exit velos, but he needs to be able to say on the field
Scott
2:25
Thoughts on Aroldis Chapman's HOF chances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
With the declines of Jansen and Craig Kimbrel, Chapman is the only reliever active who I think has done enough to plausibly have a ... chance. I can't say I'm enthusiastic about the prospect of it or have much emotional investment either way
Belli’s revenge
2:27
Notice no Yadi in your 10. Is he close for you?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
When I look at him in the light of pitch framing-inclusive WAR, I think he's getting close enough that he's likely to get elected, but I'm not entirely sold because I strongly suspect that the two other catchers with similar metrics, Martin and McCann, are going to be roundly ignored by voters even though their cases are comparable save for the soft factors. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/youll-never-guess-where-yadier-molina-sign...
I don't anticipate including him on my actual ballot but I no longer see Molina as a Morris/Vizquel-type polarizing candiate.
George
2:31
Obviously postseason stats are clearly SSS, but do the poor performances of Nick Anderson and Brandon Lowe for TB last year concern you for what 2021 holds for them?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
no, and especially no after the weird year that was 2020
Belli’s revenge
2:32
If Adam Wainwright somehow manages 3 more seasons like the last 2, ends up with over 200 wins as a lifelong Card - that put him in the Hall convo?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
No, I don't see it. A fine career and he'll never have to pay for a drink or a dinner in St. Louis but he's a guy with 41.0 career bWAR including offense and I don't see him delivering the 20 more he'd need to make things interesting.
Tacoby Bellsbury
2:34
Using some examples along the spectrum -- Franco, Tatis, Soto, Acuna, Lindor, Trout, Cabrera -- at what point do you as a spectator transition from, "wow, this kid is fun" to "wow, this kid is good" to "wow, this kid might make the Hall someday"?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
We've got such an embarrassment of riches right now when it comes to young talent. For the most part I don't really think about Hall stuff until a player has fleshed out his 7-year peak or at least come close, but the Tatis extension set off a wave of looking at through-age-21 stuff that really highlights just how extraordinary these guys are.
Charley
2:37
How do u think Gavin Lux has looked so far in ST? Was he over hyped as a top5 prospect last year? Or do u think he does have the tools and potential to take that leap into all stars?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
I haven't seen him in ST this year but the reports have been good and he's on track to be the Dodgers' regular 2B. While he never did confirm that a COVID-19 diagnosis was the reason he showed up late to summer camp last year, his struggles makes a whole lot more sense when seen through that lens. He may have been a bit overhyped, and there's some concern about the accuracy of his throws but the industry belief is that he's still a star in the making, and that the bat will play even if he's a left fielder.
Doug
2:43
Is Dave Winfield still a Hall of Famer if he retired after 1991 at 40?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
I think so. He'd have come in with 406 homers, 2,697 hits and 12 All-Star appearances. Maybe not first-ballot material without the milestones  — and JAWS really dings him because of defense — but easy HOFer given his stature within the game
clh
2:45
Does Kirilloff stick with the Twins or is he sent down to AAA?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
My hunch is that because he's struggling in spring training Kirilloff starts the year at the alternate site while the Twins cobble together an alternative for the first few weeks or month.
Mad Joe-Don
2:49
Are there any current 30ish players who you think might have in them a Randy-Johnson- or Adrian-Beltre-type kick to the back half of their career that might get them into the Hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
Freddie Freeman comes to mind. I took a look at  his Hall prospects last October https://blogs.fangraphs.com/freddie-freeman-fastballs-and-the-hall-of-.... Stanton, if he stays healthy.
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