JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/28/19

Jay Jaffe

12:02

Howdy, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. I've almost survived a work week as the solo parent of a 2 1/2 year old monster (Emma's at a Poynter Inst thing in Florida 'til Friday), but lemme tell ya, it's nearly killed me. The PT has started for my shoulder, so that's not killing me, and I've got a fresh piece on the not-so-fresh start Ian Desmond's had in Colorado. https://t.co/sNXE7SKsdo

Anyway, on with the show...

Jon

12:02

Jay thoughts on a couple unheralded prospects?

Jay Jaffe

12:05

My thought is this: I'm not very qualified to herald the unheralded ones. You know what I'd like to see, though? Top 100 lists from the past, updated and re-ranked to account for what's transpired since. I'm thinking of a 4x BA top 100 guy like the Rockies' Ryan McMahon, who has like 200 MLB PA under his belt now and is technically not a prospect but is still young enough to become something other than what that small-sample line looks like.

Sam Miller

12:06

Are you the next podcast co-host?

Jay Jaffe

12:07

Hah, nobody has asked me to co-host a podcast. Unfortunately, i don't even get much chance to consume ours (or any of the well-regarded ones), since I have no commute and can't listen to people talk while I write, nor can Ben Lindbergh or Meg Rowley speak rhythmically enough for me to use their podcasts as gym listening.

Hakuna Machado

12:09

If Tatis Jr has a great ST, does he get a quick callup mid/late April or is he destined for a 2nd half callup?

Jay Jaffe

12:10

given that he has only 92 games of Double-A and none of Triple-A, I don't see any reason he'd be rushed to the majors on such a quick timeline. And remember, it's easy to be fooled by spring training performances.

Morbo

12:11

As a soon to be first time dad do you have any advice either baseball or life related?

Jay Jaffe

12:15

2 things that help me: 1) from the point when your wife is basically too pregnant to do much and onward through the early months, think hard about anticipating her needs and those of the kid. Plan ahead, volunteer to be the go-fer, etc. 2) try to avoid the "I can't wait until..." type of anticipation regarding the baby's development. It all goes by so fast and each phase has its rewards as well as its drawbacks.

Oh and 3) the period at about 6 months when s/he can sit up but not yet move around is the best.

resumeman

12:15

Do you know if they've rolled ZIPs into Steamer for the Depth Charts projections, or if not when that'll happen?

Jay Jaffe

12:15

the switch has just been flipped https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/2019-zips-are-live/

Kristen

12:16

Will/should TEX just release Choo and eat $42 mil? Calhoun hasn't exactly earned a roster spot with his play and Choo has been productive when healthy.

Jay Jaffe

12:17

I don't see any reason to cut bait so as long as those two situations hold, though I question how much more Calhoun can gain at Triple-A.

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy

12:18

Will Brandon Nimmo's next contract include a no-chicken-cooking provision?

Jay Jaffe

12:20

Just reading that tweet made me queasy, and it certainly fits in with a certain LOLMets sensibility; I think there are past players and managers/coaches/execs who could f up a piece of toast, let alone a piece of chicken.

That said, I think there’s also a continued conversation to be had regarding teams needing to invest more time and resources into teaching players about nutrition and life skills when they’re in the minors, especially as cheap fast food is the default.

We all leave home eventually, and somebody has to teach us how to do this stuff. I'm lucky that my mom did, but not everybody is so fortunate.

Sonny Slayhern

12:21

Who brings back the most in a trade for NYY: Clint Frazier or Estevan Florial? Clint's had his injury concerns, and former top prospect, while Estevan is a tooled up CF prospect. Seems like with Hicks, Stanton, and Judge in it for the long haul, one of them can be squeezed out.

Jay Jaffe

12:24

From what I can glean via Kiley and Eric's writeups (and others outside the fold) I think Frazier brings back more in trade because he's basically ready, so long as his concussion symptoms are not an ongoing issue (which is a sizable "if), whereas Florial is further from the majors and has serious contact issues that make him the more volatile of the two.

Dave

12:24

Grapefruit or Cactus league?

Jay Jaffe

12:26

I don't really like giving either state my tourist dollar but Arizona ballparks are closer together, making it easier to see more on a single trip.

this seems like a good place to mention that next Friday, March 8, we'll be having a meetup at Two Brothers Scottsdale Tap House & Brewery. I'll be there, as will a whole lot of our staff and contributors. Come have a beer and a bite! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-meetup-scottsdale-march-8/

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy

12:27

If Trout puts up another Trout year in 2019, then retires to pursue an advanced degree in meteorology, does the hall really keep him out?

Jay Jaffe

12:27

Pfft, like he's going to pass up a shot at $300 or $400 million dollars. Come on.

Marc

12:27

Any plans to update the Free Agent tracker any time soon?

Jay Jaffe

12:29

With Jeff's departure and Craig on paternity leave, we've been a bit short-handed in a few areas. hopefully that changes soon. I'll convey this message to the Appropriate People

12:31

message conveyed

Jesse

12:31

Any chance Miguel Andujar repeats or improves from last year, or was he playing way over his head?

Jay Jaffe

12:33

the bat's real, though that 4.1% walk rate suggests pitchers can find ways to exploit him that they have not yet taken full advantage of yet. The real question is whether he can shore up his defense enough to stick at third base.

Jung Ho Kang Bang

12:33

Is Bruce Bochy a Hall of Fame manager? Are there objective criteria we can use to analyze managers or do they just feel like HoFers or not?

Jay Jaffe

12:37

There's no real JAWS-like system out there, though my former colleague Cliff Corcoran did try to hash out some objective standards for a piece at the Athletic a few months ago https://theathletic.com/467756/2018/08/10/is-mike-scioscia-a-hall-of-f...

IMO, the combination of longevity and multiple pennants (if not championships) is key. Bochy's three championships and ranking in wins (11th, with a shot at 10th) make him a lock for the Hall. Even with a sub-.500 win %, he stands out as a much stronger candidate than Piniella, Davey Johnson and Charlie Manuel (all of whom have been on one of the past two Today's Game ballots), Scioscia, Dusty, or Leyland.

Andrew

12:39

Amed Rosario had a terrible start to his career, but he's a former 60 FV prospect, looked GREAT in the second half last year, and is looking good in ST. Do you think he's set for a big step forward this year or do you see this as a SSS mirage?

Jay Jaffe

12:40

Former 65 FV prospect, by our boys' reckoning. He's entering his age-23 season, and won't have the organization's godawful allegiance to Jose Reyes to contend with this year. I wouldn't give up hope yet.

Reprobate

12:40

Good answer to Morbo on parenthood. I'd only add that once they reach the point that you can get a good night's sleep, it's all gravy - until they reach puberty. Then you'll ask, like I did, if using a cattle prod is legal.

Jay Jaffe

12:42

A close college friend who was sending his only son to college the same weekend as my daughter was born (we are the extremes among our circle of friends) described parenthood to me as a line that rises with a pretty constant slope until the kid reaches puberty, followed by a steep, steep plummet. So yeah, I think you're right.

Phil Diggety

12:42

I see people complaining about the 3-batter-minimum rule, but would baseball really be worse off without LOOGYs? Isn't it better to just have the best pitchers pitch? Would we really lose much strategy?

Jay Jaffe

12:45

I don't miss the declining presence of the LOOGYs, but I do think the 3-batter rule is intrusive in ways that the 20-second clock or even a potential pitching distance change are not. I'd rather see a roster limitation on the number of pitchers a team can carry — with safeguards regarding the Injured List (formerly the Disabled List), option rules, 2-way players and position players pitching — than in-game limits. Each team has the same, limited number of pitchers; how they deploy them is at the manager's discretion.

Hello

12:46

Any thoughts on Kyler Murray?

Jay Jaffe

12:46

I can't say I blame him for making the choice that he did given the limitations he'd face early in his professional baseball career.

resumeman

12:47

Are detailed spring stats available at the site (or do you know of another)? I am of course mainly looking for underlying stats like exit velocity, spin, etc. I couldn't seem to get the BaseballSavant search to work for Spring stats and was wondering if there's another source

Jay Jaffe

12:48

We don't have 'em, and I don't know about spring availability. Check with @darenw or @mike_petriello on Twitter

Marc

12:49

Thanks Jay! This is honestly the easiest way (at least for me) to see what poor saps are still being squeezed out of a job in March

Jay Jaffe

12:50

I'm told that the FA Tracker thing had something to do with a data feed, but that we've got some manual updates coming

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