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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/13/24
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:03
Good afternoon, folks, and thanks for stopping by today's chat. It's a snow day here in Brooklyn, with about 8" of total snowfall in the city but a lot of it already melting. I'm fresh off having built our first backyard snowman with my daughter.
2:05
About an hour ago, my piece on Jurickson Profar's return to San Diego went live (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jurickson-profar-rejoins-the-padres-not-so...). If you're reading this, you have a pretty good chance of getting playing time in the Padres' outfield this season because there's not a lot of experienced competition.
Anyway, it's been a few weeks since I did one of these, so on with the show...
Not a huge fan
2:05
Hi Jay, I'm generally not a huge fan of your stuff, but just wanted to say thanks for taking the time to chat!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
Gosh, thanks for that. I'm generally not a huge fan of people who take the time to say that they're not huge fans of me (or any of my colleagues), so, uh, have a nice day I guess.
Sanford
2:06
How would you rate your snow shoveling skills on a 20-80 scale?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:07
oh, i'm probably fringe-average at this point, maybe a 45. My right shoulder has never been the same since my 2003 labrum tear, and thanks to an ongoing battle with impingement it might be weaker than the left. I can still manage ok as long as there's ibuprofen close at hand.
Richard
2:07
Brian Kenny on MLB Network recently named Vern Stephens the #1 most overlooked shortstop by the HOF. Do you agree and does he have any chance of election in the foreseeable future?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
Stephens was an eight-time All-Star who hit 286/.355/.460 (119 OPS+) for his career, which ran from 1941-55. He had good thump for a shortstop, slugging 247 career homers, and he was about average defensively. He's just 32nd in JAWS, though (46.3/34.4/40.3), and I can think of a few shortstops I'd rather see in the Hall.10th-ranked Bill Dahlen is my top pick, and 20th-ranked Bert Campaneris (53.1/36.7/44.9) was a key player during the A's 1970s dynasty. Even Nomar Garciaparra (44.3/43.1/43.7, 24th) has a stronger case.

I can see Stephens maybe getting on the Classic Baseball Era Committee ballot at some point, but it will be as ballast while the attention will be paid to stronger candidates.
Richard
2:12
Besides Dick Allen, what names do you expect (not necessarily hope) to see on the Classic Era ballot this fall? I’m particularly curious about Curt Flood and Buzzie Bavasi.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
It would certainly be interesting to see Flood on the ballot. He never got the time of day when put before the ignorati on the expanded Veterans Committee ballots (14 out of 82 votes in one of those years and similarly in others), probably because they were thinking more about the limitation of his statistics than the righteousness of his sacrifice in his challenge of the reserve clause. Bavasi would be a good candidate, Dahlen too (though he hasn't fared well in the past and might be rotated out). My real interest is in seeing more Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball players, managers, and execs recognized. Vic Harris, John Beckwith, and John Donaldson come to mind.
Tyler
2:17
Hi Jay, I asked Dan Szymborski this question a couple months back and he said he wasn't completely sure how to answer it. I've done a lot of reading/studying up on analytics for probably 10-12 years now and I think I have a decent grasp on what the numbers mean, but I couldn't tell someone WHY they mean what they mean. In other words, I don't understand the math that goes into the numbers. So this is my question, how important is it to be able to explain the nuts and bolts of the math that goes into analytics? I've wanted to start a baseball blog and/or podcast for a while, but I'm really hesitant because of my lack of understanding in this area. In your view, is having this understanding a pre-requisite to be able to cite them in a blog or podcast? Thanks!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
If you look hard enough within the FanGraphs glossary, the guts of Baseball Reference, or even MLB.com for Statcast, you can find a lot of the math, but for the most part the real importance is in understanding the concepts and the why, rather than in re-creating the numbers yourself. If you're interested enough, though, you can reach out to people who do know how the math works and they can point you in the right direction.
the person who asks the lunch question
2:20
what's for lunch?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
I had leftovers of this stovetop mac and cheese with sausage (chicken, this time) and kale. https://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/1023269-cheesy-stovetop-mac-with-s...

This recipe has quickly become a favorite in our household, as it's a one-pot that has vegetables within it as well, and they're inobtrusive enough. This is particularly great with a few dashes of hot sauce (I used Cholula but others will work fine).
Eddie rosario
2:22
Where do I sign?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
The Padres have lots of playing time available and rank last on our depth charts in LF (Profar et al). The Marlins are 29th there, and you could fit into a platoon with Bryan De La Cruz
Jacksonian Question
2:26
Who is the MVJ (Most Valuable Jackson) by the end of the year? Chourio, Merrill, Holliday, or Jobe?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
I'll go with Jackson Holliday, whom I think will get the most playing time of the bunch.

Interestingly, the Padres are going to take a look at Merrill in the outfield; he played 5 games in LF at El Paso last year, and he's not  a real threat to supplant Machado, Bogaerts, or Kim with his defense.
Reds?
2:27
The Reds rebuild hasn't worked as planned. Time to call it a day and start a new rebuild?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
What? The Reds are bursting at the seams with young talent. I'm not saying I have the confidence in them to pull it off, but they're not in a position to give up right now.
Bill on da Shore
2:29
I'll get right to it. Jackson Holliday - does he start the year with Baltimore or AAA Norfolk?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
Neither Rutschman nor Henderson started the year with the big club, and Holliday has just 19 games at Triple-A, so I'm going to guess that he begins the season in Norfolk.
Guest
2:31
Do you think Masataka Yoshida develops this offseason with the Red Sox training staff and becomes a more elite defender/hitter in Fenway, or can we expect similar outcomes to this season for him? Does he play anywhere besides LF consistently?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
I'n not tremendously optimistic given that his exit velo, barrel and hard-hit rates were all below average, and he produced only a .419 xSLG. Sounds like he's going to get the bulk of the playing time at DH. https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/02/alex-cora-envisions-masataka-y...
Ben
2:34
Thinking about future HoF ballots, why is it that Jason Kendall received only 2 votes while Yadier is expected to easily make it in (despite Kendall edging Yadier in JAWs)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
Kendall finished his career with a 95 OPS+, zero Gold Gloves, and framing stats that were pretty lousy. Not a big mystery.

If you're using JAWS to measure catchers who have framing data, you're not getting anywhere close to a true picture.
Chris
2:39
What percent do you think Felix hernandez will get? Will he get the Johan Santana bump of people regretting letting him fall off the ballot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
I think he'll break double digits and stick around the ballot, less because of post-Santana regret than because guys like Buehrle and Pettitte, who didn't have his peak, have done so.

Remember, a significant contributor to Santana falling off the ballot was because it was so crowded that it was very difficult to make the case he was one of the top 10 candidates. It's not as crowded for Félix, though it is crowded and people are more aware of the shortage of starting pitcher candidates these days.
Waino
2:43
How will I do when I debut on the ballot in 2029? Do I break 5%? Pettitte/Buehrle purgatory? Any chance of induction?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
Probably Pettitte/Buehrle territory, and I think that's about where you belong.
Guest
2:44
Hi Jay - do you think the Yankees have another move to make? Would a pillow contract for one of the top FAs still out there make sense at all? I know they’re up against it with the luxury tax and all…
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
Matt Chapman would certainly make some sense given the LeMahieu/Peraza plan at third base, but given that they're already on the fourth tier, luxury tax-wise, I would be very skeptical they make any kind of impact move.
Guest
2:46
What will it take for you to pick the Reds as NL Central favorites coming out of ST?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
the NL Central looks pretty tight; we have the Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers, and Reds projected within four wins of each other (80-84). I expect the Cubs will improve their odds by signing Bellinger sooner or later, but a couple of injuries here and there might make the Reds look like an appealing pick.
Padres Fan
2:48
The Padres will need to rely on Jackson Merrill, Jakob Marsee and Graham Pauley to some degree for left handed production this season. Who do you feel has the best chance to succeed this season out of the group?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
Merrill, who has by far the highest upside of the three
Guest
2:52
I spent the winter of 2022 obsessing about the details of the CBA and engaging in righteous anger over the plight of players and minor leaguers. Now that we're two years in, how are you feeling about the new mechanisms that the players bargained for? are teams changing their spendings? are young players getting more money?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
While the CBT thresholds are probably curbing spending to some degree, I think for the most part the mechanisms designed to help young players get more money are working. We're seeing some top prospects break camp in the majors and their teams benefiting as well. The Mariners (Julio), Dbacks (Carroll), and Orioles (Gunnar) earned their teams comp picks via the Prospect Promotion Initiative, and players have earned decent chunks of money via the pre-arb bonus pools.
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