JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 12/17/24

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 12/17/24

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Jay Jaffe

12:01

Good afternoon! And welcome to (finally) my first FanGraphs chat of December 2024. It has once again been too long, and as evidence for how rusty I am, I promoted this on the socials for being at 2 pm (ye olde slotte) instead of noon. So, thank you to those who figured it out without my help.

12:03

I had a great time with my FG colleagues at the Winter Meetings last week. After illness and other issues cut into our group last year, we had a very full lineup, and we ate well and had a lot of laughs.

I'm deep into my Hall of Fame series. The King Félix piece went up yesterday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2025-hall-of-fame-ballot-feli...

The Russell Martin one is planned for tomorrow.

Rich Allen and the Ebonistics

12:04

Finally!

Jay Jaffe

12:08

Dick Allen's election was so overdue that I felt more relief than joy. It's a bittersweet moment — he's gotten the recognition he deserves, but isn't around to enjoy it. In retrospect, the Phillies' move to retire his number in September 2020, just a few months before his death, looms large as he did at least get that moment in the sun. And for whatever my perturbances are when it comes to squaring Dave Parker's lackluster JAWS with his election, I'm glad he's around to accept the honor because these post-death elections are really not the best way to do it.

12:09

For those who didn't get the reference to the chat name above, that was the moniker Allen used when he released a single in 1968.

Probably for the best he kept his day job, honestly.

Talfred

12:10

Do you think the Yankees are determined to get Judge out of center field, or would they be open to having him play there full-time again if the roster comes together that way?

Jay Jaffe

12:13

they'd have kept him in center if they re-signed Soto, so I don't think this was a hardline decision, just a preference. If they somehow landed Mookie Betts in a trade (man, that'd be weird), they'd probably do it that way too (assuming they didn't have a vacancy at 2B), but I imagine by the time you get down the list — and it's not that much further down — to Kyle Tucker you'd have a Tucker-Dominguez-Judge outfield as the first choice

Idiotic Failson

12:13

"Caleb Durbin is our 2b" always felt like "Bubba Crosby is our LF" for NY, but even that is now implausible as they traded Mr. Durbin for a closer. What in the world are the Yankees going to do with 2B?

Jay Jaffe

12:13

Willie Randolph is sitting by the phone, waiting.

12:16

I really don't know. I suppose it's possible they bring back Torres because the other FA options are basically stopgaps. I don't think Oswaldo Cabrera or DJ LeMahieu is an acceptable option to take into spring training so they'll have to scare up a trade somewhere.

J Co

12:16

Hi Jay and Happy Holidays. I really enjoy your work on the HOF. What is your take on entertainment value of a player as it pertains to the HOF? Does it and how does it factor in to your votes. For example, Vlad Guerrero was shy of the JAWS standard for RF, but he was in my opinion a very entertaining player to watch, so I think it was easy for voters to select him. Likewise, I think Ichiro's entertainment value makes him a very easy yes vote even if his advanced stats might have otherwise given some voters pause.

Jay Jaffe

12:17

Thanks for the kind words. The entertainment value is secondary but... not insignificant. I actually have some thoughts on this, esp. vis-à-vis Ichiro, that I'll air sometime after the election

drplantwrench

12:18

im a big believer in using all 10 votes and a more inclusive HoF and ive seen a lot of ballots that only use 3. what are your thoughts on using a limited number of votes vs using all 10?

Jay Jaffe

12:20

I've gotten out of the business of commenting on individual ballots but good lord those 3-name ones annoy the piss out of me. These are the most gatekeep-ass voters around, and seem to think if they vote for too many candidates — more than they can count with the fingers they're not using to stroke their smug faces — that there might be too much joy somewhere. AND WE CAN’T HAVE THAT

drplantwrench

12:22

who is the next Angel to be voted into the HoF?

Jay Jaffe

12:22

Albert Pujols, eligible 2029 ballot (but he'll wear a Cardinals cap because duh).

So if you're not counting him, it's Mike Trout.

It ain't Bobby Grich, alas.

Barry M.

12:24

Roki Sasaki prediction?

Jay Jaffe

12:25

The Padres seem like the most obvious fit. Maybe the Giants? I suspect West Coast.

Tim

12:28

What is a reasonable expectation for Tomoyuki Sugano? As an O's fan, I find it mildly dispiriting that we are reaching back to the 2017 WBC for performance clips.

Jay Jaffe

12:30

I don't have a great read on him myself and haven't had time to do much homework but his high-grounder, low-walk, meh-strikeout rate combo suggest something along the lines of Hiroki Kuroda but with slightly better velo.

HOF series

12:30

Thanks for the HOF series. I'm not exactly interested in the Hall of Fame, but I'm always struck by what I've forgotten about these people -- did Dave Parker really play for the Brewers, for instance? Well, yes, he did, even though I only remember him winding up with Oakland. Much appreciated.

Jay Jaffe

12:32

it's a gas to revisit these guys' careers and see some of the detours they took. Baseball from 1989-91 was particularly off my radar as I was in college and mostly without a TV so there are player-team combos that I have no memory of, and Parker-Brewers is definitely one of them. For that matter, while they both predate my baseball consciousness, Dick Allen on the A's always seems weird, as does Dick Allen on the Dodgers

Anyway, glad you enjoy!

Mike Trout

12:33

I keep seeing that Juan Soto will eventually be a DH but is there any reason he couldn't move to 1B instead?

Jay Jaffe

12:36

I suppose it's possible but it ain't as easy as it looks (tell 'em, Wash!), and not every outfield convert is Bryce Harper, somebody who really throws himself into such a move.

1B-related HOF note: I'm reading Dave Parker's autobiography Cobra, done in collaboration with Dave Jordan. It's outstanding (great gift idea for the baseball fan in your life) but what I was not aware of was that the Pirates in the early/mid-'70s had such an outfield logjam that they tried Parker at first base before eventually moving Willie Stargell there permanently c. 1975.

David

12:36

Are you optimistic about Holmes becoming a starter with the Mets?

Jay Jaffe

12:38

I like the move more than the Frankie Montas signing, and think he can be solid. The Mets did pretty well revitalizing the careers of Severino, Manaea, and Quintana and Holmes does have good stuff, so I bet it works out

Roman

12:39

Thanks for all the chats and articles this year. Perhaps this is too machiavellian, but if the As are solely concerned with hitting the salary minimum, why aren't they using their "cap space" to take on underwater contracts that would come with prospects attached (arenado, montgomery, etc)? Giving up picks for Severino and Springs doesn't make sense

Jay Jaffe

12:40

A good question though Arenado did not include them on his trade list (Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox) so that ain't happening.

12:41

I think mostly they want to look busy and get the union off their backs, actual roster planning is secondary

StiebTea

12:41

Oh! I have been looking forward to the Martin piece ... and not only because I know you have been hinting at some surprises. Any spoilers you can share ahead of time? Martin > Molina? etc. ...and welcome back, Jay.

Jay Jaffe

12:44

Martin is right near the top of the scale when it comes to pitch-framing. He's a Molina-like candidate but with somewhat better offense but not as good an arm. Unfortunately, Molina crowded him out of the Gold Gloves and he never made the World Series, but the guy was a better ballplayer than some people realize.

wheelhouse

12:44

am I wrong to be hard out on christian walker as a free agent? giving a 34-year-old righty 1B-only with a very-good-not-great bat is the sort of thing that bites teams in the ass all the time

Jay Jaffe

12:47

he's a legitimately plus defender ("actual difference-making first base defense," to use Ben Clemens' words, and Ben watched a ton of video to vote for the Fielding Bible Awards), which raises his floor. I share your concerns to some degree but so long as he's not expected to be the middle-of-the-lineup stud, I think on a three-year deal, he'd probably be fine

Idiotic Failson

12:47

Do you think Judge could hit 100 HR a year in the KBO or NPB?

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