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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 11/18/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:02
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the first 2022-23 offseason edition of my chat. I'm not sure if this is the Hot Stove or the smoldering wreckage of Twitter, but here we are. I've been covering the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot this week, with entries on Fred McGrif, Rafael Palmeiro, Albert Belle, and Don Mattingly, all of which you can get to via the nav bar here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c...
2:04
Next up is Dale Murphy, which will run Monday because I added some Deep Thoughts that were brought about by the advent calendar of bad behavior by some of the others on this ballot. I also covered Anthony Rizzo's return to the Yankees https://blogs.fangraphs.com/anthony-rizzo-heads-back-to-the-bronx/
Malcolm Nunez
2:04
Hi Jay is Goldy a lock for the Hall now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
I was just looking at his page a little while ago, prompted by a similar question from MLB Network Radio pal Mike Ferrin. I wrote about Goldschmidt's progress in mid-July (https://t.co/IydUWFrx7r) after which he continued to mash even with a September slump, which is why he's the NL MVP
2:07
Here's how he looks via JAWS:

First Base (18th):
58.5career WAR |45.37yr-peak WAR |51.9JAWS |5.8WAR/162
  Average HOF 1B (out of 23):
    65.5 career WAR | 42.1 7yr-peak WAR | 53.8 JAWS | 4.9 WAR/162
2:08
That peak score is 13th all time, nestled between Frank Thomas and Miguel Cabrera. I'd say that the heavy lifting for Goldschmidt is over, and that he's on his way provided he gets the remaining 250 hits he needs to reach 2,000 (which he in all likelihood will)
Jeffrey
2:08
What would you try to go for at 1B if you were Houston’s new GM?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
The Astros were said to have made Rizzo their #1 free agent target at first base, which made sense. José Abreu had an even better season than Rizzo and a better Steamer projection (I haven't seen ZiPS for him) for 2023, and I think he'd make sense even given his age (36 in January). Beyond that, i think you'd have to look to the trade market for a first baseman
2:13
Wait, I forgot Josh Bell, who would be my second pick. I also think it would be worth seeing what it would take to land Christian Walker
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:13
I'm having a really tough time gauging Bellinger's value. Seems like a logical non-tender at $18 mil, but it also feels like he would be the #2 CF option in FA if he is non-tendered. Such a weird middle ground.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:15
To me, nontendering him seems like a no-brainer. If he can be a league-average bat, he can start in center, but he hasn't been anywhere close to that for the past two years. The Dodgers have given him every chance to sort it out but it hasn't come together and I suspect he needs a change of scenery. I don't know that I'd sign him without the expectation that he's either a project or a fourth outfielder with platoon issues.
2:16
I think I'd go about $8 million + incentives on him though I wouldn't be surprised if some team thinks he'll be easier to fix than I do
Ben
2:16
I know Goldschmidt won the MVP, but between him, Arenado, and Machado, which one would have had an MVP be most helpful to their Hall of Fame candidacy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
Goldschmidt, being the older one and thus the more likely to decline sooner, probably had the most urgency of the three. I do think Machado winning would have been a good illustration of the evolution the perception of him from a bad guy to an organizational pillar, but I think he's viewed in a more positive light than before already, which is good
Vermonty
2:18
When are the Yankees going to start acting like the Yankees again? They passed on 2 elite players in their twenties in Harper and Machado. Big mistake.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
Those were missed opportunities, I think particularly when it comes to Machado given the need they've demonstrated on the left side of the infield in the years since. You're going to see a fully operational Death Star  the Yankees acting like the Yankees when it comes to the Aaron Judge pursuit, as I think they're just gonna end up with a silly number even if it hurts them a bit on the back end.
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:20
Justin Turner gave a very interesting radio interview yesterday. Among other things, he stated that in his conversation with the Dodgers, "There’s all this crap about the luxury tax and payroll and paying a gajillion dollars in taxes." Maybe JT just accidentally said the quiet part out loud?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
I wouldn't call it the quiet part loud — fans and media understand that this is part of the business side of the game, as do players, and that's even before we start talking about what the projections look like for an injury-prone 38 year old corner infielder.

Which isn't to say that the Dodgers shouldn't re-sign him. He was significantly underpaid during his four-year, $64 million deal, he's been a model citizen for the team off the field (this year's Clemente Award) as well as a key leader in the clubhouse. He's not the highest priority for the Dodgers, who have to sort out shortstop and the rotation first
Bryce Harper's Torn UCL
2:24
Can you rank these scenarios in order of likeliness please:

A. Phillies sign a marquee FA SP (Verlander Tier)
B. Phillies sign a marquee FA SS (Turner Tier)
C. Phillies sign a backend FA SP (Eovaldi Tier)
D. Phillies roll with one of Abel/Painter in their opening day rotation
E. A secret other thing
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
I'd go B first given the buzz about Bogaerts and the Dombrowski connection, and I don't think that precludes C at all.
erghammer
2:25
What thoughts among the Fangraphs crew to adjust WAR for a guy like Ohtani? Using the traditional metric, he has massive negative defensive value since he's "only" a DH. But in practice he pushes off the roster the worst other pitcher, replacing that in the same body with a massively useful hitter, leaving room on the roster for somebody else (e.g., a defensive specialist who could add back WAR on the defensive front). Should a two-way guy get a big WAR adjustment for that?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
Ohtani is such an edge case that I don't think you need to do anything. I think it's better to acknowledge that our tools only go so far in quantifying the value of a player, and that the model is stretched to its limit when considering the virtues of this particular unicorn. Maybe it's a win, maybe it's three runs; I don't think you're going to come up with a right answer that can't be called into question. Just appreciate him for what he is — a unique superstar — and enjoy.
Jacob
2:28
If you were in charge of putting together the Contemporary Baseball Committee ballot for this year, who would you have included?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, McGriff, Dwight Evans, Whitaker, Dave Stieb, David Cone — the last two to get some fresh names out there among the starting pitchers and to steer clear of PED guys (Kevin Brown) and previous Era Committee candidates who made no dent on the ballot (Orel Hershiser).
Appa Yip Yip
2:30
Rumours are skirling about the Jays and Nimmo. Is it of any real concern that to save the injury prone Springer from the rigors of CF they are pursuing an injury prone CF, or does Nimmo's injury history not worry you too much? (Full healthy season last year)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
Nimmo's history would concern me more for the Blue Jays than for another team given both the presence of Springer, with his ongoing issues, and the fact that the team play on artificial turf, which exacts a greater toll on players. Not necessarily enough to say that he shouldn't be signed, but he's a player I'd be careful not to overcommit to; I'd try to keep the guaranteed portion of his deal at four years.
John
2:34
Could the Yankees make a big splash in the SP market (Rodon, Senga, Verlander, trade) even if they sign Judge?
Mike
2:35
The opening day SS, LF, 2B and 3B for the New York Yankees will be __________?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
Two-fer here. I think the Yankees can and will make a splash beyond Judge; I know they pursued Verlander and wouldn't be surprised either if they land him or Senga (they've had pretty good success dipping into the NPB with Tanaka and Matsui). I suspect that trading away talent in order to dump Donaldson (owed $29 million) would be part of such a bigger move.

I expect both Peraza and Cabrera to be in the Opening Day lineup and that LeMahieu could be at one of the other positions, with Volpe in the picture by midseason. I'm still mulling the possibility that they could trade Torres, who has two years of club control remaining.
Insert Witty Name Here
2:40
Off-season is when I usually read a baseball book or three.  Outside of the classic “Cooperstown Casebook” (alliteration!), any good recent recommendations?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
Tyler Kepner's book on the World Series, The Grandest Stage, is a lot of fun. I spoke to him on a podcast just before the series https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-tyler-kepner-talks-world-s.... Likewise, I thoroughly enjoyed Luke Epplin's book on the 1948 Cleveland championship team, Our Team, with its focus on Bob Feller, Satchel Paige, Larry Doby and Bill Veeck, and we spoke on a podcast this summer https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-katie-woo-on-covering-the-.... I've been digging Howard Bryant's book on Rickey Henderson, too
Guest
2:42
I do hope the Crime Dog gets in. What do you think about Kenny Lofton's playing career? Close to HOF numbers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
I think Lofton has a pretty good case for enshrinement, as he's 10th in JAWS among center fielders https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_CF.shtml. I hoped he would be on this ballot but an August report from the LA Times in which he was accused of sexual misconduct probably didn't help his cause https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-22/kenny-lofton-accus..., and this ballot didn't need another creep.
baseballenjoyer
2:45
Jim Crane told MLB.com that he thinks the GM search could extend into 2023. Is this like when college teams wait too long to hire a coach and tank their recruiting class or does it not matter because Crane appears to believe he can assume the GM role in the interim?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
It would appear that Crane — a man who's never been shot of self-regard — believes that he and his underlings can muddle through in the interim. I wonder if any of his other targets besides David Stearns are under contract for 2023.
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:48
How do you typically hear breaking news? Twitter? MLBTR? Text messages from insiders/colleagues?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
Twitter and the household grapevine, which includes my wife being an editor for The Athletic.
2:50
Also the FanGraphs slack channel, because our editors and fellow colleagues spend time picking out news that may be of interest
Sunny in San Diego
2:50
Is Soto an OF going forward, or a 1B? We do need a 1B. Oh, and helluva year for the Padres!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
Yes, I think Soto's still an outfielder, and that he's more likely to become a DH down the road than a first baseman. A Josh Bell return wouldn't surprise me.
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