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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 11/17/20
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my hastily-assembled chat. With my wife on a conference call and the outdoor weather tolerable, I went out to lunch and sat down for tacos and tostadas, then realized at 1:55 PM that hey, it's that time of the week. Anyway...
2:17
I launched my Hall of Fame series on Monday to coincide with the BBWAA's ballot release https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-big-questions-about-the-2021-bbwaa-hal... and posted my updated Scott Rolen profile today https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2021-hall-of-fame-ballot-scot...
2:18
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
2:18
Is there a historical comp for the dumpster fire that is the La Russa hiring?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
Two come to mind. In November 2004 the Diamondbacks hired Wally Backman to manage before discovering that he had been arrested twice, once for a domestic incident with his wife, and once for a DUI; additionally, he had filed for bankruptcy. https://www.espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=1916771
2:21
And then, of course, last fall the Mets hired Carlos Beltrán, but parted ways with him in January, before he could set foot in the dugout due to his central role in the Astros' illegal sign-stealing scheme https://blogs.fangraphs.com/out-before-reaching-home-carlos-beltran-ex...
Tony
2:21
I know the Veterans Committee is a crapshoot generally, but if he really is done with baseball, does Billy Beane have a case for the Hall, or does the complete lack of postseason success pretty much keep him out?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
A very interesting question. I think Beane is viewed within the game as a trendsetter who's probably worthy of enshrinement, but there's a backlog of execs who merit a closer look, and the lack of postseason success, even with his famous line in mind ("My shit doesn't work in the playoffs"), could work against him.
Inaccessible Rail
2:23
There was an interesting question on Ben's chat about who was the best player not eligible for the HoF because of too short a career. The chat-er suggested Josh Hamilton. Curious who you would pick.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
Well, since Al Spalding (8 years but also a career as a pioneer/executive) and Addie Joss (9 years, with a waiver due to his untimely death) are in, I think it might be Brandon Webb, a Cy Young winner and two-time runner-up who accumulated 31.1 bWAR in 7 seasons (really 6 plus one game).
Inaccessible Rail
2:26
I am really impatient to see some FA signings, but I'm guessing that the market will move even more slowly this year because of the financial uncertainty caused by the pandemic. Any reason to hope that this is wrong?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
Given the apparent heat of the George Springer market, which I examined last week, I wonder if he might sign in a timely manner, but I'm bracing for a slow winter and I think that should be the default assumption in light of what we've seen in recent years.
Curtis
2:28
Thanks for the piece on Rolen!  What a great and thorough representation of I think a very underappreciated player. Who is the heir apparent to Arenado in the next "generation" of all-around 3rd basemen?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
Offhand I'd say Matt Chapman, who's already got two 8-win seasons and a pair of Gold Gloves under his belt, but only 2 years separate Arenado and Chapman. Among third baseman 25 or under, only Yoán Moncada was worth 1.0 WAR or more during the shortened season. So if it's not him — and it's not Rafael Devers, whose defensive metrics are lousy — then it's not somebody who's really proven himself at the MLB level yet.
DBRuns
2:32
Are there merits in looking at runs/wins above average – vs runs/wins above replacement – in hall of fame voting? For instance, looking at the careers of Ron Santo and Scott Rolen: both put up ~70 WAR over 15 and 17 seasons, respectively, but Rolen was worth 456 runs above average while Santo was worth 317. That’s a huge difference! The fact that they both accumulated 70 WAR is, to a large degree, based on the fact that Santo gets a big boost in the number of runs an average player was better than a replacement player from Santo's era. But if the goal is to decide who belongs in the Hall, shouldn’t there be an emphasis on “greatness”, i.e. how much better someone was above average?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
I think it's fine to look at above-average but the problem with that approach is the loss of scale; if a guy is 50 runs above average, you don't have a sense of whether that was in a single season or a 20-year career, whereas you get a better sense of that if the same player is measured relative to replacement level. Put it another way, measuring against average won't give you any clue as to whether a guy has reached the kind of milestones that voters find essential to their HOF deliberations — the voters tend to reward longevity, which generally is achieved by a bunch of above-average seasons surrounded by average ones (or worse) at either end of a career.

Average production has real, significant value at the mlb level, which is why it's useful to start measuring from a level below that.
Guille
2:36
On that Billy Beane question, projecting far into the future, Theo should eventually get some consideration if only for ending almost two centuries of frustration in two very important franchises. And who knows, where he ends up next
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
Theo is an easy call for Hall voters even if he never works another day in baseball
Buffalo Bluejays fan
2:37
Hi Jay.  I look forward to your Hall of Fame posts every year, happy to see them start today.  I've got a hypothetical question for you if you don't mind.  Let's say Bonds and Clemens fall off the ballot after next year, and then are inducted by the Today's game committee.  Do you think that changes how voters treat Manny (if still in his 10 years) and Arod, or would they keep their not on my watch filibuster?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
I think Manny and A-Rod are in a different boat than Bonds and Clemens because both were suspended by MLB for actual PED-related infractions. Now, I suppose there might be some very limber voters out there who somehow believe that because BB/RC weren't punished by MLB, it was the BBWAA's job to administer frontier justice, whereas Manny and A-Rod have served their time and are still worthy of election... but wow, that's a strange position to take given apparent size of the "if only we knew who did what" crowd.

I don't see any of these guys getting in anytime soon.
Bryan
2:40
Think we’ll see full ballparks in 2021?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
maybe late in the season, but right now I think it's going to be a huge risk if MLB tries to plan for that at the start of the year unless vaccine distribution goes incredibly rapidly and smoothly.

I think every passing day that the Trump administration pretends that they didn't lose the election, and therefore keeps the incoming Biden administration from getting up to speed on COVID-19 stuff, decreases the odds of finding some level of normalcy in 2021, not just for MLB but for all of us.
NorCal Angels
2:43
When people see players fail as hard as Jo Adell did in his rookie season, do the evaluations change that much? How much of his value does he retain? If Marsh is more ready does Adell stay up because his clock started anyways?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
I don't think there's any team that would takes 132 PA worth of struggles of a highly-regarded 21-year-old rookie under pandemic league conditions particularly seriously in terms of his long-term evaluations.That small sample likely revealed areas he needs to work on (pitch recognition, etc) and it seems probable that he starts 2021 in the minors, but  the Angels would be foolish to let that override the way they've evaluated Adell over the past 3-4 years.
Go M’s
2:46
Cubs fire sale? Bryant non-tendered?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
I can't imagine Bryant gets non-tendered. Guy had a bad 34 games but is one season removed from being an All-Star, and a few hot weeks away from being one of the top trade targets of next summer.
2:49
I imagine the Cubs will work to pare payroll, but taking them into the tank seems silly considering how competitive they were in 2020 despite the things that went wrong.
Dave
2:50
What are the chances of Omar Vizquel getting into the HOF? Seems he is arguably one of the top 5 defensive shortstops of all time
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
B-Ref's defensive numbers put Vizquel 18th all time among shortstops. He's not even in the top 5 since the start of the 1978 season (Ozzie's first year). https://www.baseball-reference.com/tools/share.fcgi?id=8ZgBr

Given that he received 52.6% of the vote, I do think Vizquel will eventually be elected, but it won't be with my endorsement. Planning on running my JAWS series piece on him tomorrow.
Guest
2:53
Who should the Padres bring in to replace clevinger in 2021
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
Charlie Morton strikes me as a good choice who won't break the bank, but I think he prefers to be on the East Coast. Masahiro Tanaka could be a good mid-priced option if Bauer is too costly for them.
David
2:55
what team do you think lindor will be on next year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
I wouldn't be surprised if it's the Indians given the glut of good SS on the free agent market and the reality that teams aren't going to gut the farm system for 1 year of Lindor. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/francisco-lindor-and-the-crowd-of-availabl...

If they do deal him, the Blue Jays – who have some Cleveland connections in their front office — and Yankees are my top picks. Don't ask me to construct the deals, though.
Alex
2:57
If you could pick one part of a park (or just outside of it) to see someone homer off of/on to, what would it be? Put another way: If you could guarantee a 475 foot homer from someone, where would you choose they hit it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
Homers that go into the water, like McCovey Cove in SF or the Allegheny River at Pittsburgh's PNC, are very impressive, but I really miss homers into the black at old Yankee Stadium II. Was lucky enough to witness a few in person.
John S.
3:00
Could Gary Sanchez play first base for another team? Is his bat good enough to make it worthwhile and could he handle the defense?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
There's no way a team would take a chance on him at an offense-first position given the current state of his offense, and I'm not tremendously confident about him making the transition defensively either. He needs to get his shit together or he'll be a journeyman DH soon.
Guest
3:01
I think the Yankees could use a good defensive 4th outfielder.  What options do you think would be good? I’m wondering if Jake Marisnick would be a good fit?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
They have one option staring them in the face named Brett Gardner.
3:03
They turned down Gardner's $10 million option but are said to be interested in bringing him back. Clint Frazier has earned the starting LF job but Gardner's ability to play both LF and CF makes him a good candidate to stick around. Better than Marisnick.
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