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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 10/21/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
Good afternoon, folks!
Apologies for the delay, I had a typo in my chat code
2:10
Welcome to the my first solo chat of the 2022 postseason
2:14
Bear with me for a moment while I get back on track. Today I've got a piece about the rebound of starting pitcher usage in the regular season and postseason https://blogs.fangraphs.com/postseason-starting-pitching-is-back-baby/
Earlier this week I previewed the ALCS https://blogs.fangraphs.com/al-championship-series-preview-houston-ast... which required a quicker turnaround from ALDS Game 5 than I would have liked.
2:15
And wrote about the Dodgers' early exit and the increasing disconnect between the regular season and the postseason https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ousted-dodgers-drive-home-disconnect-betwe...
I'll be covering ALCS Game 3 at Yankee Stadium tomorrow
And now, on with the show!
Mike
2:15
Did any of the ZiPS JAWS projections stand out to you as surprising?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
I haven't actually seen them yet, and unless I'm wrong I don't think they've been published. Dan has remarked on a few of them to me and on Twitter though, and it's interesting stuff that I'm sure to use at some point
Princess Buttercup
2:17
Over/Under on maybe Strider wins NL Cy Young
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
It's going to be Alcantara in a landslide
Matt
2:17
Who do you have winning the NLCS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
This looks to me like a pure toss-up, and our game-by-game odds say so. I'm MUCH more familiar with the Padres at this point due to my time in San Diego this summer, my general penchant for watching more NL West than NL East, and the fact that I previewed Mets-Padres. That probably means the Phillies will win so that I have to take a deeper dive into them at some point.
CY
2:21
Thoughts on Bochy to the Rangers? Is this further evidence that the Rangers will spend big again this offseason?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
I'm a bit surprised but I guess the Bochy-Chris Young connection is strong, and at least we don't have to worry about adding another line to his Hall of Fame plaque
2:23
I do think this heralds shoring up the roster towards contending, but the Rangers have A LOT of work to do after going  68-94. I don't think Clayton Kershaw can look at what they've got and say "they're a year and a good starter away, what the hell" and come along for the ride, to note the most obvious player linked to this.
And Buster Posey aint walkin' through that door, either.
darrrrrr
2:24
Whose HOF case benefits most from a ring this year? Verlander, Harper, Machado are locks or on track. Soto is still too young to say but already has a ring. Stanton if he has a big WS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
A ring and continuation of postseason success would definitely behoove Stanton. While he's hit two important homers so far, he's just 4-for-24 so he's going to have to turn it up.
2:27
Gerrit Cole, who might have the best HOF shot of anybody after the big four (Kershaw, Scherzer, Greinke, and Verlander), could certainly continue to fortify his credentials in that area
Guys like deGrom and Goldschmidt missed golden opportunities, not that they're entirely to blame for their teams' losses
Dan
2:27
Hi Jay, I love your work. It’s not a postseason question: Why wasn’t Joe Torre considered a “catcher” in HOF standards?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
2:28
Short version: for classifying a multiposition player, each season's WAR gets broken down into a share by innings, and he's got a larger share as catcher. See the thread for details
HOF Not HOS
2:29
Better bet for the Hall - Kenny Lofton or Jim Edmonds?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
Lofton has much better numbers, both traditionally and via JAWS, but he's probably not getting on a ballot until this goes away, and if it doesn't, he's unlikely to get on a ballot, period.  https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-22/kenny-lofton-accus...
MVP?
2:30
Sorry, Jay, my question got mangled, but essentially: why Goldschmidt for MVP/GG and not Freeman as well?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
Goldschmidt spent a good chunk of the season chasing a Triple Crown, and while he and Freeman are dead even in fWAR (7.1), Goldy has about a 2-win advantage in bWAR (7.8 to 5.9). Both have teammates in the picture as well, and I actually think Arenado might sneak in there.
Gene Michaels Ghost
2:33
Are Cashman or Boone seats getting any hotter as the Yankees strike their way out through the ALCS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
I think Boone would have been in real trouble had the Yankees lost the ALDS, particularly with that Game 3 miscommunication regarding Holmes' availability looming so large as they let the game slip away. Related: if I had more time and breathing room on my ALCS preview I'd have remarked upon Boone's bullpen management to a greater degree, as it's been [consults a thesaurus] not very good lately.
2:40
As for Cashman, I don't think his seat is all that hot, either. The Yankees do a lot of things well — they just won an AL East title for only the second time in five years, advanced to the ALCS for just the second time in five years, they find diamonds in the rough (Cortes, Holmes), they've got a good player development pipeline, etc. I don't think it's unfair at all to look at Hal's unwillingness to spend to Cohen-like levels as an impediment to making that next step. Trade for Castillo (part with Peraza, maybe?) and lock him up via extension instead of trading for Montas. They probably should have signed Correa or Machado or Harper a few years ago, and while they spent on Cole, their payroll can accommodate more than that.
Princess Buttercup Again
2:40
Shouldn't quality of mustache factor into the NL Cy Young voting?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
If it is in the AL, Nestor Cortes has a shot.
bosoxforlife
2:40
The Yankees have yet to get more than 6 hits in any post-season game. How concerning is the mismatch between pitching and hitting to you and do you think the change to the shift rule might raise the overall batting average
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
It's a concern, particularly if the Yankees can't hit the spin the Astros are offering. I do think the shift regulations will bring batting averages up a few points but they might have to do something about outfield shifting (he said, rolling his eyes so far back into his skull that they made a gross slurping noise) for it to have as big an impact as they hope https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/74168/baseball-therapy...
Blake Seams
2:42
Is Juan Soto getting nominated for a Gold Glove Nick Castellanos erasure?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
did the coaches confuse Soto with Machado? Because good lord, the fact that Manny's not a finalist sticks out like a sore thumb
and yes, it's pretty silly that Soto's a finalist given his metrics
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