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Jason Mackey's Pirates chat: 07.16.21
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Jason Mackey
11:15
Hello, everyone, and welcome to my weekly Pirates chat. We'll get started around noon, but please feel free to fire away with whatever is on your mind now. Thanks, as always, for participating.
Guest
12:02
Feel like Crazier and Reynolds are too players at their primes. Can Pirates get boatloads of talent in return?
Jason Mackey
12:02
OK, let's get started.
12:03
I think they can do well in a Frazier trade, yes. Very well, in fact. Should be able to get multiple talented, projectable players. I don't think they'll trade Reynolds. Still four years of club control. I think the hope is that they sign him to a long-term extension.
Richard
12:03
How old is too old to be part of the Pirates future?  I ask because Adam Frazier still has years to play and trading him is a total crap shoot.  How many more youngsters with the potential to be a major leaguer should we get for an already major league all-star?
Jason Mackey
12:08
It's not linear, Richard. For example, I can't tell you because the Pirates trade player X, they should get back Y. It's not how it works. The Pirates have a value established for Frazier, a threshold if you will, in terms of talent and what they want back. If other teams don't meet it, they don't trade him. It's also not player-specific. It's overall amount of talent. But long-term, they invested a first-round draft pick in a second baseman Nick Gonzales. That's a lot if you're going to sign your second baseman to a long-term extension. Also, and something that seems to come out every week: Why would Frazier want to re-sign here? He's hitting .330 and can open himself up to the highest bidder. Why would he want to relinquish the chance to do that to stay with a rebuilding team with a lousy history of paying players?
Terry Martin-Alpharetta, GA
12:08
Top of the AM to you Jason, Enjoyed your in depth reporting on our Battling Bucs over the first half of 2021 Season. What do anticipate would be a successful season for the team in the next 3 months? Wins does not indicate success in my book. Curious to hear your thoughts! Terry Martin-Longtime Bucs Fan in Woodstock, GA
Jason Mackey
12:09
Good morning, Terry. And thank you. Yeah, wins don't matter to me one bit. I wanna see Keller come back and improve. I wanna see Brubaker pitch well. I wanna see Reynolds continue to hit, the same for Hayes. I'd love to see someone, anyone come up and provide a spark. I'd love to see Cherington and Co. execute more trades -- and do them right. I'd love to see some prospects like Tahnaj Thomas, Carmen Mlodzinski, Brennan Malone and Miguel Yajure -- among others -- get healthy and back on track. I'd love to see some promotions and guys produce once they happen.
V. Fontaine
12:10
Your six questions for the second half was really good. If John Nogowski does continue to hit, could Colin Morgan slide over to 2B after Frazier is traded? I noticed he played 11 games there in 2019. Maybe he could play there some but not every day?
Jason Mackey
12:10
Absolutely not, V. Fontaine. If they trade Frazier, I would expect Rodolfo Castro to play there. Or at least get a chance. Could also go Newman; he's fine defensively. Maybe Dee Strange-Gordon comes up, or Cole Tucker fits in there. No way do they go with Colin Moran.
Rich in CA
12:10
Jason, can the Pirates pass Baltimore and catch Arizona in the race for the 2022 first pick?
Jason Mackey
12:11
I think they can. I don't know if they will. But after the trade deadline, I do think they're probably going to have a rough time. It depends on whether the other teams get it together or not.
EV in Melbourne
12:11
Hi Jason, when drafting college players, like Hank Davis, is there less "time" developing in the minors because of the four years put in at college?  Logically it follows that a 22 year old college player would not need as much minor league instruction as an 18 year old high schooler would need.
Jason Mackey
12:12
It's possible, EV. I wouldn't say it's always that way, but yeah, I think the hope going in is that Davis is further along and thus will require less development time.
V. Fontaine
12:12
I don't think the Pirates would do this but what do you think about putting Mitch Keller in the bullpen when he gets recalled? It used to be that starting pitchers, even the really good ones, would spend a season in the bullpen at the majors and then move into the rotation. I wonder if there would be less pressure on him and allow him to gain some confidence. And then next season plan on him being I'm the rotation.
Jason Mackey
12:13
I hate it. Absolutely not. He's a starting pitcher, and they should continue to develop him as such. The routines are very different. Also, they've "rehabbed him" -- whatever term you wanna use -- as a starter. Why, then, erase everything you just did? He has the pitch mix/stuff as a starter, and that's how they're gonna stick.
Danny
12:13
Who all do you predict will ultimately get traded?
Jason Mackey
12:13
Frazier, Rodriguez and Anderson.
Guest
12:13
Any update or predictions on the trade talks?
Jason Mackey
12:14
Nothing. Was pretty quiet around the ASG. As I wrote today, too much [stuff] at one time. But I think the aforementioned three will go. If you made me pick two, I'd go Frazier and Anderson and Rich Rod stays. But Frazier is having a great year with another year of control; Anderson is on an expiring deal; and Richard Rodriguez comes dirt cheap for a couple more years. Someone will pay.
Rob
12:14
Question about today's article deatialing that the Pirates have more scouts than other teams.  I remember reading last year how many teams laid scouting staff off right before/after the draft, did the Pirates not do that, maybe just do it to a lesser extent or did they just rehire quicker?
Jason Mackey
12:15
The Pirates have some reductions in baseball operations. I do not know if that involved scouts or not. Either way, again, they have about three times as many scouts as anyone else, and they use them in different ways -- video/remote work, scouting MLB and MiLB games and also complexes, to track rookie/younger plays to make the high-side deals you saw this past offseason.
12:16
The Pirates "had" some reductions.
Ty
12:16
When he signs, what level does Henry Davis start at?
Jason Mackey
12:16
I think he starts out at the Florida Complex League. Hasn't played a game since May. What level does he reach? I could see him at High-A Greensboro this season.
GPT
12:16
How valuable of a trade chip is Adam Frazier viewed around the league, and what would a reasonable return look like?
Jason Mackey
12:17
One of the top five, I'd say. And again, you're talking multiple pieces, high-upside guys who the Pirates hope can eventually become top 100 prospects. The top 50 or multiple top 100 (now) talk is a little absurd, IMO.
Bill
12:17
Seems like if Adam Frazier is traded, Rodolfo Castro could get a good opportunity at second base. I would hope the pirates take this approach, Castro’s swing seems smooth and simple. Gonna want to see a lot more of this kid.
Jason Mackey
12:18
Yeah, I'm not ready to say they need to do this or that with Castro or anyone else, at least as it pertains to Frazier. But Castro has hit and should continue to play as long as he's doing that. Figure out the rest later.
Greg
12:18
Jason, thanks for all the articles and insight. Not a question just wanted to say thank god MLB has come back to it's senses and next year are doing to play 9 inning doubleheaders and get rid of the extra innings rules. Baseball is supposed to be 9 innings.
Jason Mackey
12:19
I respect your opinion, Greg. And thank you. I kinda liked the seven-inning doubleheaders. I think baseball can afford to change in some ways, and these, I believed, were an easy entry point for casual fans. But I understand why people might disagree with me.
Rich in CA
12:19
Jason, thanks for the chats.  If we are going all in does it make sense to move B Gamel and J Nogowski.  I would hate to see it but could we get a good return from either?
Jason Mackey
12:20
I can't imagine they would get much, Rich. Comparatively, there's very little track record there. I can't give a hard no because nobody actually knows that, but I would be really, really shocked on Nogowski. Gamel is a little more established and could maybe -- maybe -- fetch something.
Drew
12:20
As the major league trading deadline nears, do you think we'll see a chain reaction of promotions throughout the minor league system once Cherrington completes all the deals he can?
Jason Mackey
12:21
Yeah, I think there will be a few prongs there. It's not just trade-related. But we're halfway, yes. I think as a result, you're gonna see them promote some guys fairly soon. Obviously there will be a trickle down. The deadline is also upcoming. Moves will have to be made to accomodate that. But I do think you'll see some promotions first.
Terry Martin-Alpharetta, GA
12:21
Jason, What do you see happening with Rodolpho Castro and Joe Nogowski? Sure would be nice to see both get a chance and at bats!
Jason Mackey
12:22
Rodolfo and John, BTW. ... Nogowski is easy right now, until Moran gets back. After that, I don't know. As Mike Tomlin likes to say, let the work dictate what happens. They need to find Castro at-bats. However that happens -- have him play short, Frazier will probably get a day post ASG; failing that, showcase him some in the outfield -- just get him in the lineup.
Guest
12:22
Hi Jason, wondering who do you think from our recent draft will be a quick signee & who will likely not sign. Thanks!
Jason Mackey
12:23
I think Davis will sign very well. Have heard good things about Solometo. Have not heard anything about Lonnie White Jr. -- not saying good or bad, just saying simply I don't have a great feel either way -- and I believe Chandler is in the clubhouse, along with a couple others. They honestly might sign all of, like, minimum 19 or 20 of 21.
Canyon
12:23
Who takes over for Frazier after he’s traded
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